Fantasy Football

N’Keal Harry has great size-adjusted speed and explosiveness with prototypical WR1 size. He’s the favorite to be the second receiver behind Julian Edelman on a thin Patriots WR depth chart. We need to wake up and remember this guy was an elite college prospect who fell victim to injuries as a rookie. He’s healthy and ready to take that year two jump, and he’s almost free to draft.

Andy Isabella closely comps to T.Y. Hilton and Tyler Lockett. While he may need a few things to break his way in order to carve out a significant role given the presence of DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, and Larry Fitzgerald, Isabella is in a far better position to break out this year than he was a year ago. One injury to a top-three receiver, and he will be poised for a massive breakout. He has the athleticism and skill to dominate. He just needs the chance.

With a low 8.0 (No. 91 among qualified wide receivers) Average Target Distance mark, it’s not surprising that Jamison Crowder finished with a -4.0 (No. 54) Production Premium. However, efficiency becomes less of an issue with the target volume he receives. He’s the 41st receiver drafted on average per FFPC ADP data and is a solid WR3, at worst, for any squad. The target hogging and draft value make Crowder one of the best wide receivers to draft after pick No. 100. 

Randall Cobb proved to be efficient with 15.1 (No. 22) yards per reception, 10.0 (No. 9) yards per target, and a +10.3 (No. 27) Production Premium, all with the 48th-most targets. With DeAndre Hopkins traded to the Arizona Cardinals, the Texans have 167 (No. 6) Vacated Targets. Most of those targets project to head towards Brandin Cooks, but there’s a chance for Cobb to be in the 70-80 target range paired with an elite quarterback once again.

The Guillotine League is another example of the creativity surrounding the industry. There’s a reason fantasy gamers are latching on. For those new to the format, The Guillotine is a redraft league that uses total points, rather than head-to-head matchups. The twist; at the end of each week, the team with the fewest points is chopped. Meaning, they are cut from the league. The team’s players then go into the free agent pool. Last team standing wins. Interested yet?

When approaching a Guillotine draft, dependability is king. The players to target are those most likely to produce at a high level early in the season. Aaron Jones is an example of the type of player to roster for this type of league; a reliable starter with a friendly projected schedule early on. Building a core of these players will provide the best chance of moving up the points board.

There is no doubt that Drew Brees was the best passing quarterback in the NFL last season. Efficiency, although impressive, does not equate to fantasy football upside. His 6.8 (No. 32) yards of Pass Attempt Distance Per Attempt attributed to his efficient play in fantasy last season. His efficiency won’t matter when he loses passing volume. Because volume leads to fantasy points, Brees’ decreased pass attempts will disappoint people drafting him top 7 at his position.

Tyler Higbee had two events occur for him to become a fantasy football sensation. The first was he faced the easiest stretch of tight end defenses over five weeks. The second was a knee hyperextension to Gerald Everett in Week 12. Higbee’s current FFPC ADP of 74.58 is an example of projecting a small sample size out to a full season. A healthy Everett will prevent Higbee from returning expected value at his ADP cost.

It’s possible Leonard Fournette fulfills the final year of his contract with Jacksonville before moving on to free agency in 2021. However, a split between he and the Jaguars might be exactly what both sides need. The team would receive compensation they otherwise wouldn’t if Fournette left in free agency. They’d also have the opportunity to observe the younger backs on the team. The change would give him the chance to reestablish himself as a quality starter in the league.

When 2021 rolls around, the Ravens backfield will look much different. Mark Ingram will be in consideration to be cut if J.K. Dobbins meets expectations and Gus Edwards will be a free agent (though, a “team friendly” extension isn’t out of the question). The Ravens could hold on to Justice Hill for the backup role when the dust settles next season, but moving him now might prove beneficial, and would really open things up for Dobbins, whom they are so excited about.

Standing at 5-7, Boston Scott packs a punch with his 4.45 (91st-percentile among qualified running backs) 40-yard dash and 10.82 (97th-percentile) Agility Score. Scott finished 2019 on a tear, totaling 350 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns over the final four games. Although undersized, he fits perfectly in the Eagles scheme as a satellite back and spot starter with RB2 upside.

While Melvin Gordon was holding out in 2019, Justin Jackson was busy competing with Austin Ekeler for touches. In three weeks as the primary backup, Jackson averaged eight touches per game to 19 for Ekeler. Jackson’s ability to evade tacklers with a 10.88 (96th-percentile) Agility Score allowed him to gain 6.9 Yards Per Carry and nine first downs on only 29 (No. 82) carries. In the event Ekeler goes down, it would be Jackson that would get the call to replace him, not the rookie Joshua Kelley.

DeSean Jackson has the highest ceiling among all players drafted outside the top 100 and it is not close. His floor is zero and its unlikely he plays a full season but, at an ADP of 148.11, he is an easy bench stash. Jackson can be the WR1 any given week, and three to five monster weeks is all that’s needed to validate the pick. His 42 career catches of 50-plus yards are the most by any player in the history of the NFL.

With an ADP of 206.98, Randall Cobb is nearly an afterthought in Best Ball drafts. The Texans gave him a considerable amount of money given his age, and his competition for short targets is non-existent. There is no tight end of consequence on Houston’s roster and Deshaun Watson has a tendency to prolong plays rather than simply dump off to the RBs. Etch Cobb’s name in with pen as your WR7/8 in Best Ball drafts.

There is reason for optimism regarding Jimmy Garoppolo this year. San Francisco’s gameplan last year was to grind the rock and let their elite defense win games. With defensive efficiency being extremely difficult to carry over from year to year, this team will be forced to throw more after ranking No. 4 in Game Script per PlayerProfiler. Additionally, Garoppolo displayed an unheralded tendency to tuck and run with 46 (No. 13 among qualified quarterbacks) rush attempts last year.

Baker Mayfield has not had the strongest start to his career, but do not lose sight of the fact that this was one of the best QB prospects of all time. He put up a 92.6 (97th-percentile) College QBR with an 11.5 (98th-percentile) Yards per Attempt mark and an 18.4 (100th-percentile) Breakout Age. The pieces haven’t come together yet in Cleveland, but this may be the year they do given the weapons at Mayfield’s disposal. This looks like a situation for a top 10 fantasy QB.

The poster child for the 2020 sophomore tight end breakout is Green Bay’s Jace Sternberger. There are many intriguing reasons why this is the case. There is the shallow nature of the Packers passing game for a start. The team famously did little to strengthen their receiving corps this offseason, either via the draft or free agency. They signed Devin Funchess, who then chose to opt out of the 2020 season, leaving Davante Adams without any serious competition in the passing game.

Foster Moreau faces significant obstacles to increased playing time in 2019. Though Jason Witten should only last a season in Sin City, while the expected salary cap squeeze in 2021 may impact Darren Waller’s future with the team. The Raiders can release him and save the entirety of his $6.27 million salary for the season. Moreau may be able to make some noise as a touchdown-dependent player in 2020, but he can make the Raiders tight end spot his own in 2021.

Austin Ekeler seized the primary back role last season, but don’t forget that Justin Jackson was a dominant college producer with explosive athleticism. When called up, Jackson has been an efficient runner, and most importantly, a truly dynamic receiver. The Chargers want to run the ball, and Jackson will have a sizable part to play.

Available in the last round of every draft, Justin Watson looks the part of third year breakout wide receiver given his dominant college career and 85th-percentile speed and burst. After posting a 40-percent Slot Rate last season, he is well-positioned to play when Tampa goes 3-wide.