Dynasty Leagues

Age-adjusted production matters, and Travis Etienne has been the man since he was 19 years old. His production profile is nothing short of prolific. He followed his impressive freshman breakout season with two straight years of at least 1,600 rushing yards and 20 total touchdowns. Playing with Trevor Lawrence capped his College Dominator Rating at 25.7-percent (54th-percentile among qualified running backs), but he was efficient with his lighter workload.

While not as talented of a receiver as Travis Etienne, Najee Harris did prove he is also capable of producing in the passing game at the NFL level with his 43-reception, 425-receiving yard, and 13.4-percent (90th-percentile) College Target Share senior season. With a 5.8 (68th-percentile) College YPC average, Harris was less efficient than Etienne, but his 30.9-percent (70th-percentile) College Dominator Rating (a much more predictive metric for running backs) checks in significantly higher.

Though he joins a crowded backfield, Trey Sermon’s one-cut and go running style fits the San Francisco offense well. He played in a similar outside zone scheme in college, and will have an opportunity to carve out a role as the team’s grinder back, with upside to be the high-volume, early-down and short-yardage guy.

The Jets were a prime landing spot for a rookie running back and they chose to go with Michael Carter in the fourth round. The 5-8, 201-pounder joins a backfield without any defined roles. Carter, a one-cut and go type back, is an excellent fit in the Kyle Shanahan-style offense that Mike LaFleur will be operating.

Trevor Lawrence and Gardner Minshew should never be compared. Minshew will forever be a legend, but there’s a reason he was picked in the sixth round. To think he is the best quarterback D.J. Chark has played with at the professional level makes the arrival of Lawrence so much sweeter.

D.J. Moore doesn’t belong as a deep threat. Although he wasn’t terrible at the position, signs pointed to him belonging as the short to intermediate route runner. Last year he had 10 (No. 2) drops, a 75.9-percent (No. 94) True Catch Rate, and a 50.0-percent (No. 38) Contested Catch Rate; all were significant drops from his 2019 marks. Using Terrace Marshall on the outside would allow Moore to get more work in the slot.

Jaylen Waddle to the Dolphins is an interesting landing spot. He’ll be competing with Will Fuller, DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, and Mike Gesicki for targets. No doubt a crowded offense for him to break out in, but he does have a connection with Tua Tagovailoa. Still, he doesn’t have an alpha profile, and his Best Comparable Players aren’t exciting either, with John Brown being his most favorable.

When you think of a player both film grinders and analytics gurus can enjoy, DeVonta Smith definitely doesn’t come to mind. Yes, Smith was a great college player, but his weight is the big issue. A listed weight of 170-pounds certainly warrants skepticism. Only a couple players come to mind when you think of successful lightweight receivers: Marvin Harrison and Chad Johnson. When it comes to weight, he is undoubtedly an outlier.

It should come as no surprise that the rookie tight with the best chance of being fantasy relevant in 2021 is Kyle Pitts. Shocking, I know. But when a team makes a player the highest-drafted tight end in NFL HISTORY, you have to assume that they have a plan to use him. The defense did not appreciably improve from the woeful unit it was last year, and should once again rely on Matt Ryan’s arm, which is good news for Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and of course Pitts.

Brevin Jordan joins a crowded tight end room, with players like Jordan Akins, Kahale Warring and Ryan Izzo for company. But the turbulent nature of the Texans means we don’t know who will be tasked with sending the ball their way in 2021 and beyond. Jordan could emerge as this year’s Chris Herndon. An unspectacular prospect who was able to post decent fantasy production as a rookie. But betting on anything positive emerging from the Texans at present is a gamble I would not like to take.

There are no other WRs like Allen Robinson on Chicago’s roster. He’s 6-2, 220-pounds. He’s fast – with a 103.2 (78th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Speed Score, athletic – with a 129.8 (87th-percentile) Burst Score, and he has a 10.28 (91st-percentile) Catch Radius. Their other receivers – Damiere Byrd, Marquise Goodwin, Darnell Mooney and newcomer Dazz Newsome – are older, tiny and/or late-round special teams candidates with average-at-best measurables.

Andy Dalton is a 34-year old, now average-at-best QB on a one-year deal. Per Pro Football Reference, he hasn’t been in the top half of QB rankings in the last four seasons. He doesn’t run. We could look further into his metrics but it really doesn’t matter. If Dalton starts all 17 games and/or Nick Foles has to come in, the GM and head coach will be fired and the new coach will not move into 2022 with Dalton at the helm.

While Josh Imatorbhebhe’s lack of college production can be explained, the landing spot isn’t ideal. The Jacksonville Jaguars are loaded up at the wide receiver position, but the good news is that the majority of those ahead of the Illinois product are expendable, and more than passable on the depth chart. He has the athleticism to turn heads and make an impression.

At 6-3 and 207-pounds, Tamorrion Terry ran a 4.50 (68th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) 40-yard Dash and posted a 103.7 (80th-percentile) Speed Score. D’Wayne Eskridge will have his opportunity and there are other players to pass along the depth chart, but should Terry impress early in camp, Pete Carroll has shown he’ll ride talent over draft capital (a la Russell Wilson). 

If you blame the situation for your favorite player’s failure, you never have to be wrong. You can push the blame onto the coach, or quarterback, or the helmet decal every time you miss. There is no such thing as a lock in the NFL draft. But if you’re going to make a bet on someone, you want to bet on prospects that produce like Rashod Bateman.

Is Rashod Bateman going to be Stefon Diggs, Justin Jefferson or A.J. Brown? Not likely in year one. But rookie picks demand positive assumptions because dynasty leagues are won when players hit their ceilings. If Bateman does, it will have an outsized effect on the way Baltimore runs its offence and how efficient of a passer Lamar Jackson can be.

When it comes to the top quarterback picks in fantasy football, Kirk Cousins is hardly ever in the conversation. Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have more fanfare, but who can bring the most bang for your buck? When combining the advanced stats and metrics with his production, supporting cast, consistency and current Underdog Fantasy ADP outside the top 120, Cousins is poised to be fantasy football’s best value quarterback this season.

Even though he’s not a running quarterback, he still received rushing opportunities last season and will continue to do so. His 0.6 (No. 23 among qualified quarterbacks) red zone carries per game ranked above rushing QBs like Daniel Jones and Russell Wilson. With opponents looking for Dalvin Cook out of the backfield, Cousins will find himself keeping the ball in the red zone at a similar rate this upcoming season if he isn’t passing it in first.

The case for Chase Edmonds is clear. He’s the secret code to get into the good analysts room. The Cardinals signing Conner over other free agents and rookies is a vote of confidence in Edmonds’ ability, not a warning sign. The stock is there for the taking 20 weeks before it skyrockets. It’s time to take advantage.

Bryan Edwards has all the tools he needs to succeed. His elite frame and college production are traits to bet on. If Edwards finishes at or above the mid-WR3 range in his age 22 NFL season, he should gain at least 30 additional Lifetime Value points. That would nearly double his current value. Given his talent and situation, this target finish is well within reach. If you have the chance to get out from under this downtrending, top-heavy 2021 class and nab Edwards in return, do it.