Draft Strategy

NFL betting continues to be a roller-coaster for many. However, thanks to resources on PlayerProfiler, we can more easily find value in player props. This is particularly true when DFS sites offer pick ‘em props with extreme value compared to sportsbooks. Welcome back to my pick ‘em series where I try to find the right selections for you. In these articles, I review selections from the previous week. Then, I give out my favorite player prop pick ‘ems for the upcoming weekend on the DFS pages of Underdog Fantasy and Sleeper.

Player props in the NFL continue to be a profitable way to attack the betting market. In locations where you cannot get your hands on a full-access sportsbook, you can still find supreme value in pick ’em props. Every prop is the same price, and you just have to find the overs and unders the line-creators have whiffed on. In these articles, I review selections from the previous week, then give out my favorite player prop pick ’ems for the upcoming weekend on the DFS pages of Underdog Fantasy and Sleeper. This week we will be reviewing the Best Pick Em Player Props for Week 4!

On our Underdog slip, we sold high on Najee Harris’ rushing yards. This was thanks to eyeballing his injury report and a fear of Pittsburgh’s offensive line in a tough matchups against New England. Taking the under on popular players continues to be a valuable play in the player prop market. Harris never challenged his 55.5 rushing yard line in the game.

We are through a week, plus a Thursday Night Football, of the fantasy season. Play-by-play data for this season’s games are starting to pour in and get uploaded to PlayerProfiler.com. It’s time to continue our series of weekly player prop pick ‘em selections based on new knowledge. In these articles, I review selections from the previous week. I give out my favorite player prop pick ‘ems for the upcoming weekend on the DFS pages of Underdog Fantasy and Sleeper.

We made it! Football season is finally here and so is the ability to take advantage of overreactions reflected in player prop lines. The pain of seeing players designated as out, and the anticipation of them being questionable or active on Fridays is finally here to stay for a few months. In this article series, I’ll follow up Friday practices with Saturday morning selections of my favorite player props and pick ‘ems on the DFS pages of Underdog Fantasy and Sleeper.

Some fantasy players love to know what they have before they draft a player. “Have to see it first drafters” are organized and rule-based. They like to draft experienced players with large NFL sample sizes. “Look how they did last year! This is what I am expecting again this year!” The problem with this drafting style is that it rarely produces the sort of build that can truly dominate your opponents. Often this style of drafting leads to chasing old scores and drafting players who have already played their best seasons as a pro. This limits the unknown upside that lies with players who are on the verge of breaking out.  

Drafting is paramount in seasonal leagues. Leagues can be lost messing up the early portion of the draft, but they are definitely won finding the players later that outperform their draft prices. Here are players that I would consider ADP Smashers in 2022 according to their Underdog ADP’s.

Last season, Cooper Kupp had one of the most productive WR seasons ever. He led the league in receptions (145), TD receptions (16), and receiving yards (1947). By simply drafting Kupp, fantasy managers gave themselves a chance at winning their league titles. But what gets lost in the shuffle is Kupp was being drafted a few spots behind his teammate in Robert Woods. Woods did not lead managers to fantasy titles, to say the least. 

In an earlier article, we set out to understand the structural differences between ADP in Underdog best ball drafts and FFWC high stakes drafts. Today, we take the next step and look at players whose ADPs differ from these trends and create opportunities for arbitrage between the two sites.

Rookie Draft Season for a lot of leagues has come and gone, but I still have several leagues of my own that have not yet drafted.  This is our first look at a superflex rookie mock draft for August 2022.  I will give my analysis for each round and hopefully you can start to see where fantasy players are valuing these rookies.