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DraftKings Value Plays and GPP Pivots – Week 1

by Matthew Gajewski, September 8, 2019

In Baltimore’s run-heavy offense, Mark Ingram should easily best his 11.5 carries per game from a season ago. Easily their most experienced rusher, he should push for 20 touches immediately. Add in a cupcake match-up and he becomes a lock in Week 1 DFS.

Listed among the 49ers’ starting wide receivers, Dante Pettis draws a juicy match-up against a porous Tampa Bay secondary in Week 1. Last season, Tampa Bay allowed the fifth-most passing yards to opposing signal callers (4,378) and then failed to address the position this off-season.

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The Long Gain: Bargain Running Backs to Target in Week 1

by Zach Krueger, September 7, 2019

Kerryon Johnson averaged only 11.8 carries per game in 2018, and has a chance to blow past that total heading into his second season as Detroit’s top running back. Facing the Arizona Cardinals, he has the most favorable matchup of all running backs on the Week 1 slate.

Brought in to fill the  early-down role occupied by Gus Edwards last season, Mark Ingram brings with him a history of long runs and big play ability. After serving his four-game suspension, he finished 2018 with seven (No. 26) Breakaway Runs and a 5.1-percent (No. 23) Breakaway Run Rate.

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Wide Receiver vs. Cornerback Matchups to Target: Week 1

by Jesse Reeves, September 7, 2019

Philadelphia expects to be a high powered scoring machine. With Alshon Jeffery lined up against Josh Norman, the fantasy points will role through him on Sunday. Norman allowed 2.10 (No. 80) fantasy points per target with an average 0.38 (No. 50) Fantasy Points Per Cover Snap.

Richard Sherman was not the dominant CB his analytics profile suggests he was. Mike Evans is a WR who feasts on an exploited opportunity. He averaged 2.09 (No. 18) fantasy points per target while averaging 18.1 (No. 10) fantasy points per game in 2018. Sherman relinquished 1.80 (No. 59) fantasy points per target allowed last season.

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How to Deploy Fantasy Football’s Most Volatile Receivers

by Matthew M. Stevens, September 6, 2019

Over the past three seasons combined, no receiver displayed a higher average weekly volatility rate than Julio Jones (10.2). Player Profiler’s rating system considers any mark greater than 10 to be very volatile.

Albert Wilson and Tre’Quan Smith both displayed a high level of weekly volatility last season: Wilson with a 10.1 (No. 6) number and Smith with a 10.2 (No. 5) mark. 

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Cheap DFS Lineup Makers for Week 1

by Taylor Smith, September 6, 2019

With Jacoby Brissett’s air yards per attempt ranking 31st in 2017, Nyheim Hines could be on the receiving end of a plethora of check-downs against the Chargers this Sunday. Hines’ fantasy production doubled in losses last season, meaning he is in a spot to crush this week.

With an 85th-percentile College Target Share, Dare Ogunbowale is set to lead the Bucs backfield on passing downs. If and when he flashes against the 49ers this weekend, his value will skyrocket. Fantasy gamers should take advantage of his stone-min pricing.

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Locked-in On Lockett: Week 1 Lock Button Starts

by Alex Johnson, September 6, 2019

Tyler Lockett was incredibly efficient in 2018, scoring 10 touchdowns with nearly 1,000 yards despite only 71 targets. He was top-three in True Catch rate and Target Premium while leading all WRs in yards per target, Production Premium, fantasy points per target, and had a perfect quarterback rating when targeted.

Vance McDonald is healthy (for now) and is in prime position to receive a healthy target volume. He saw 73 targets in 2018. With Antonio Brown and Jesse James out of town and little else for target competition outside of Juju Smith-Schuster, that number is expected to go up substantially.

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Fantasy Football Trends to Watch – Week 1 Edition

by Matthew Gajewski, September 6, 2019

Following Kenny Stills’ departure, the Miami Dolphins find themselves with a starting wide receiver trio of DeVante Parker, Jakeem Grant, and Albert Wilson. Many project the Dolphins to finish among the league’s worst teams. With Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm and projected negative game script throughout the season, targeting Miami receivers brings hidden upside.

With Bruce Arians coming to Tampa Bay, the Buccaneers should remain near the top of the league in yards per game after finishing second in that category last season (415.5 yards per game). Dare Ogunbowale quietly brings fantasy upside in this offense after Barber recorded 39 red zone touches last year (No. 10).

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