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My wife made me promise I wouldn’t pick David Johnson under any circumstances. Not for her sake, for my own. Can’t blame her; she just doesn’t want to see me get hurt again. I can also never get myself to push the button on Chris Carson. I passed on both in favor of Cam Akers in the fourth round. The potential for Akers to become the lead dog in the Rams backfield, combined with his own ability, give him the upside edge.

I knew I wanted pieces of a Jacksonville offense that’s projected to see a good amount of negative Game Script. With an #SFBX ADP of WR19, I knew I had to take D.J. Chark as the 19th receiver off the board and above receivers we had ranked higher. Still, if I’m going to have an alpha to build an RB-heavy squad around, I’m glad it’s a player who many sharp minds in the industry are touting.

Ronald Jones is a big ADP riser right now. Ke’Shawn Vaughn has covid-19 and needs 6 weeks to recover. Possibly a good thing?

Is Dare Ogunbowale lurking? Gronk unretired to play covidball.

Adam Thielen’s ADP falls because of Minnesota’s run-first philosophy and general apathy towards their quarterback’s skillset. Pass volume is far from a concern for 2020, with data from the “World Famous Draft Kit” supporting an argument for reversion to the mean. Positive regression is coming for a unit with a consolidated target distribution between Thielen, Dalvin Cook, and the tight ends.

The Chargers have 104 (No. 17) Vacated Targets, and Philip Rivers leaving implies fewer looks for Austin Ekeler and more for the receivers. Tyrod Taylor can sustain a WR2 floor for Keean Allen, who is drafted as a fringe top-24 play. In three season with Buffalo, Taylor’s completion percentage never fell below 60-percent, and his QBR was also always above 60. Allen is a strong option in the middle rounds with a high floor in Best Ball.

Jerick McKinnon was always a superior athlete. He entered the league with a 4.41 (96th-percentile among qualified running backs) 40-Yard Dash time, 134.9 (97th-percentile) Burst Score, and 10.95 (94th-percentile) Agility Score. With a 155.7 (100th-percentile) SPARQ-x score, McKinnon’s Best Comparable Player on PlayerProfiler is LaDainian Tomlinson, who finished with over 13,000 rushing yards in 11 seasons.

The winning play is to draft the least expensive member of the 49ers backfield. McKinnon’s FFPC ADP sits at 231.73, making him the 66th running back off the board on average. This will leave owners with great value and guaranteed opportunity in a San Francisco backfield that is often riddled with injury and in need of a late-season performer. If you don’t draft McKinnon now, it might be too late.

Dare Ogunbowale is an inexpensive Tom Brady passing down back. K.J. Hamler and Adam Trautman continue to be top values in dynasty rookie drafts.

Is the greatness of D’Andre Swift and Jonathan Taylor being forgotten? Getting Miles Sanders in dynasty is very exciting.

Despite the decrease in overall pass volume, Aaron Rodgers finished top-5 among qualified quarterbacks with 85 (No. 4) Red Zone Attempts, 94 (No. 2) Deep Ball Attempts, and 34 (No. 1) Money Throws. It’s alarming that the high volume in high-leverage fantasy points-scoring situations did not get him into the top-10 at his position in Fantasy Points per Game. These volume stats were also higher in 2019 than they were in 2018. It is illogical to expect an increase in these stats in 2020.

At 37 years old, Rodgers is in decline. His arm is no longer elite and his rushing production has diminished to average in the NFL among quarterbacks, ranking No. 16 last year with 183 rushing yards. These two traits are what made him an elite fantasy quarterback option in fantasy football. Without these traits Rodgers is, at best, a streaming option. Don’t draft him as a QB1. Let the competition pick him up believing in the façade of him being a “safe” QB1 option.

Upon first glance, there is plenty to appreciate about the Derrius Guice profile. At 5-11 and 224-pounds, he’s a formidable force on the field. Though he didn’t participate in burst or agility drills at the 2018 NFL Combine, he registered a 4.49 (80th-percentile among qualified running backs) 40-Yard Dash, giving him a 110.2 (91st-percentile) Speed Score. His Best Comparable Player? Oh, it’s just Ezekiel Elliott.

The injuries Guice has sustained through the first two years of his NFL career leave many wondering if he can stay on the field. However, modern medicine is rapidly improving, and an ACL injury isn’t the death knell it once was. Rehabilitation processes are evolving to provide optimal recovery. At age 23, Guice also has youth on his side. Should he stay true to his rehab program, he’ll have the chance to prove his injuries were mere fluke, not a sign of things to come.

Christian McCaffrey and Patrick Mahomes should consider opting out of playing football this year. Brandon Aiyuk is tee’d up to smash in week 1.

Henry Ruggs, Jalen Reagor and Justin Jefferson can both produce in week 1. Clyde Edwards-Helaire caught defenses by surprise last year.

After being groomed to take over for Greg Olsen for the last two years, Ian Thomas is set to become Carolina’s starting tight end and nobody seems to care. Though his career efficiency metrics have not been impressive, he has produced TE1 fantasy performances when Olsen has missed time. Unlike our other LRTE Roulette candidates, Thomas has multiple games with a Snap Share above 90-percent on his pro resume, including his lone TE1 outing last year.

Without Gerald Everett being injured, Tyler Higbee wouldn’t have put up 31-percent of his career yardage in a five-week span with top-tier matchups. That Everett managed to record a 50.2-percent (No. 28 among qualified tight ends) Route Participation mark in 12 games played compared to Higbee’s 45.4-percent (No. 33) mark in 14 games played tells us all we need to know about who the better player is when both are healthy.

The Cardinals did not add a wide receiver in the 2020 NFL Draft. In fact, head coach Kliff Kingsbury gave his second-year WRs a vote of confidence post-draft. Andy Isabella owns the fastest 40-time of the current group. Since Damiere Byrd departed for the New England Patriots in free agency, there are no other notable speedsters in the receiver room. Chrisitan Kirk is the next fastest with 4.47 wheels. If a speed element is wanted in Kingbury’s offense, Isabella is the answer.

With a current FFPC ADP of 320.45 and falling, the time to acquire Isabella is now. At this point, fantasy gamers are drafting the likes of Devin Funchess and Danny Amendola well ahead of him. His value is way too low given his prospect profile. He’s a low-risk, end-of-bench stash in redraft and a solid upside play in Best Ball. In dynasty leagues, he’s the perfect player to acquire as a throw-in to a deal. Just find a way to get him on the taxi squad or end of the bench.