Tua Tagovailoa and Baker Mayfield are destined to be great. Josh Allen is a raging sell in dynasty.
Matt Ryan will be productive for the next five years. Derek Carr has underrated upside.
In a draft class that included Jonathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, J.K. Dobbins, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Cam Akers is flying under the radar. He was even selected before Dobbins in this year’s NFL Draft. At 5-10, 217-pounds with a 4.47 (87th-percentile among qualified running backs) 40-Yard Dash and 108.7 (89th-percentile) Speed Score, Akers fits the mold of a feature back.
There is hope that this Rams offensive line can surprise with health and continuity as it did in 2017 and 2018. Akers’ youth, health, and profile should help even if there is no improvement along the offensive line. If he receives a similar Opportunity Share to Gurley’s 2019 mark where he inefficiently averaged 14.5 (No. 17) Fantasy Points per Game, there’s no telling what he can do.
Anthony McFarland’s second gear is apparent. If he wasn’t outrunning defenders at the second level, there were plenty of jukes and broken tackles on film to support an Aaron Jones-ian talent profile at the pro level. His talents can be unlocked behind the perennially great Steelers line. We’ve got the uncertain backfield, plus athleticism, game-breaking speed and make-defenders-miss-ability. That meets our standards.
With Dion Lewis out of the picture, there’s hope for Darrynton Evans to immediately earn meaningful snaps as a pass-catcher with the Titans showing no desire to ramp up Derrick Henry’s pass-catching opportunities. While not a prolific pass-catcher in school, his targets and receiving production increased every year, and he’s certainly got more of a satellite back-plus profile than Henry.
Quarterback is the position where college efficiency metrics matter the most. Hand size, weight, and BMI are poor predictors of future fantasy success. Height and Wonderlic Score can be ignored when evaluating quarterback prospects. Athleticism matters when trying to evaluate a quarterback’s rushing potential. Other than College QBR and draft pick, there are not a ton of easy ways to identify values in rookie quarterbacks, at least from a fantasy perspective.
Jalen Hurts was a second-round pick, so the draft capital is not on his side, but he has tremendous upside if Carson Wentz misses time and he gets a chance to start. His collegiate resume features an 11.3 (98th-percentile among qualified quarterbacks) College YPA, an 89.7 (95th-percentile) College QBR, and fantastic athleticism indicated by a 125-inch Broad Jump and 4.59 (95th-percentile) 40-Yard Dash.
With Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, Keenan Allen should still command plenty of looks. He was inside the top ten with 831 (No. 10 among qualified wide receivers) Completed Air Yards and 368 (No. 9) Yards after the Catch despite playing with a quarterback in Phillip Rivers who finished outside the top 15 with a 7.2 (No. 16) Accuracy Rating. We have a unique opportunity to take a player who may be one of the last true target hogs at the wide receiver position as a low-end WR2. That is a bargain.
Gerald Everett wasn’t as flashy as Tyler Higbee, but before the injury that opened the door for Higbee, he was having a pretty good season. He finished the year with a 14.5-percent (No. 9) Hog Rate. The fact that he only scored two touchdowns obviously hurt him a great deal from a fantasy point of view, but despite this, he put in four top 12 scoring weeks between Weeks 4-10. Plus, and this does bear mentioning, he is super athletic.
Similar to 2019, this season offers multiple running back options in the later rounds of fantasy drafts. While the high-end backs are worth their price, there is enough value late that wide receiver can still be the focus early on. According to current ADP, Chris Carson and Mark Ingram are once again going in the fifth round or later. Derrius Guice, a player with compelling metrics, is going in the seventh round. Though there is history of injury and competition in Washington, Guice is a prime breakout candidate.
Not only does this running back rookie class ooze talent, but there is also depth. Zack Moss, Anthony McFarland and Joshua Kelly are late-round rookies with intriguing player profiles. They also have an opportunity to make an instant impact given their situations. Moss and Kelly will have opportunity right away and McFarland is a James Conner injury away from becoming Ben Roethlisberger’s best friend. These players can be added to the list of names to target in the later rounds to fill out depth at the position.
Joe Mixon is among the most talented running backs in the NFL. He finished No. 1 among qualified running backs with 103 Evaded Tackles. He also finished with a 32.9-percent (No. 4) Juke Rate, and 576 (No. 2) Yards Created. Entering his contract year with the additions of Joe Burrow and last year’s injured first round pick Jonah Williams, Mixon is primed for a top ten fantasy finish.
The Chargers selected Justin Herbert with the No. 6 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, but he’s initially expected to ride the bench in the early going. In Tyrod Taylor’s three seasons starting for the Bills, he averaged a 94-525-5 line as a rusher. He also finished as a top 10 fantasy QB in 2016 with Lynn as his offensive coordinator, so there’s familiarity there. If Taylor were to start the entire season, he would be hard-pressed to hit 500 pass attempts as part of a slow, conservative group.
Much like the running backs, any receiver with a shot at No. 1 duties gets a massive boost in their rankings in the #SFBX format. With Deebo Samuel set to miss Week 1 and a push to start the year on the PUP, Brandon Aiyuk has a legitimate shot at being the top wide receiver on an efficient offense. The Arizona State product posted an 82nd-percentile College Dominator Rating on top of an 87th-percentile College Target Share. At 6-0 and 205-pounds, Aiyuk has the profile and size to earn an alpha role in his rookie season.
Coming out of Alabama, Irv Smith was a dynamic prospect. He possessed above-average speed even when factoring in his 6-2, 242-pound bowling ball frame. He also posted 16.1 (87th-percentile) college yards per reception by dominating defenders with his quickness. His upside is taking over for Kyle Rudolph as the TE1 on a Minnesota team that desperately needs a target opposite Adam Thielen. The Scott Fish Bowl rankings recognize that volume-based upside and give him a boost.
In standard scoring leagues, Drew Brees is barely a QB1 due to his inability to add any rushing upside. However, in the Scott Fish Bowl, his best qualities are amplified. In the switch from FFPC to #SFBX scoring settings in terms of 2019 statistics, he saw a +3.7 Fantasy Points per Game bump. It feels gross to press the draft button on a 41.5 year old quarterback, but Brees has value on par with the best Konami code quarterbacks in #SFBX settings.
Derek Carr’s new low-risk style is a turnoff in leagues with standard scoring settings, with him providing little upside for explosive plays. However, #SFBX is no standard league, so Carr’s fear of going deep and avoidance of turnovers makes him a possible boom rather than a bust. With Marcus Mariota’s looming presence in Las Vegas worrying timid drafters, Carr’s perceived value is a questionable QB2, but his advanced stats and metrics reveal he will be a QB1 in the 2020 Scott Fish Bowl.
The 2017 RB class has an average College Dominator rating of 32-percent, three percent higher than the 2020 class average. In the first three rounds of the draft, 2017 RBs average out at 34.5-percent. This eclipses the 31-percent mark of the 2020 class. Of the RBs drafted in 2017, 38.5-percent (10 out of 26) had a Dominator greater than 35-percent. The 2020 RB class has five players (29.4-percent) above this mark: Jonathan Taylor, Cam Akers, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Zack Moss, and Eno Benjamin.
The 2020 class as a group has an average Speed Score of 103.9 overall and 108.3 for players drafted in the first three rounds. Seven out of the 10 rookies drafted by Day 3 of 2020 have Speed Scores over 100, with Ke’Shawn Vaughn’s 103.5 (74th-percentile among qualified running backs) being the floor. Only three RBs had Speed Scores higher than Vaughn’s for the first three rounds of the 2017 draft: Leonard Fournette, Joe Mixon, and D’Onta Foreman.
