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In his rookie season, Laviska Shenault had a 7.18 (No. 55 among qualified wide receivers) Target Accuracy mark, along with a 5.0 (No. 83) Target Quality Rating. Yet he was still able to finish with a +27.5-percent (No. 8) Target Premium. With Trevor Lawrence likely to be the Jaguars quarterback in 2021, an upgrade in accuracy allied to his efficiency as a receiver can only mean good things in Year two.

While a member of the Texans, Will Fuller enjoyed a 7.2 (No. 4) Target Quality Rating. His +27.2-percent (No. 2) Target Premium was far and away better than his closest teammate. But Fuller now finds himself on the Miami Dolphins with Tua Tagovailoa, who had a 7.9 (No. 2) Accuracy Rating, as his quarterback. This despite having a single wide receiver with a positive Target Premium. This marriage could be good for all parties.

The Bills have maximized Josh Allen’s size-adjusted athleticism in the most pivotal area of the field when it matters most: the red zone. Rushing touchdown regression is unlikely due to how he is deployed near the goal line. In 2020, we saw him rush 24 times inside the 20, tying him with Kyler Murray for attempts inside that distance. While this usage cripples the fantasy ceilings of Zack Moss and Devin Singletary, it bolsters both Allen’s floor and ceiling.

Even with questionable decision making, questionable play calling, and general coaching ineptitude, Kyler Murray finished the season with a 24.4 (No. 3 among qualified quarterbacks) Fantasy Points per Game average. While he only threw for over 300 passing yards three times, his rushing production more than made up for it. Given his otherworldly burst, it’s not unreasonable to assume he has a shot of breaking the all-time single-season QB rushing record as soon as next year.

Memphis is the new Running Back U. Kenny Gainwell was not a dominant college prospect, but you have to appreciate a 6.3 (79th-percentile among qualified running backs) College YPC average and you have to LOVE a 51-reception season being on the resume.

Nico Collins is 6-4 and 215-pounds. This is elite size and carries starting outside alpha-level upside potential with it. He outproduced Donovan Peoples-Jones for two of their three college seasons together, and was held back by the poor Michigan offense. He adds an 80th-percentile Breakout Age and 92nd-percentile College YPR average. No other players have this kind of upside at this point in the draft.

If I were to take a lesson away from the process of drafting Will Fuller, it would be to target players in drafts where the ADP skews closer towards the bottom percentile outcome of a player. Especially when the ADP is driven down by narratives not based on numbers. Fuller’s injury proneness was and continues to be overrated in fantasy. Further, his Weekly Volatility had a strong chance of changing with De’Andre Hopkins no longer in Texas. When drafting outside of round three, it is beneficial to target the players with the highest ceilings and ignore their floors.

Where things went wrong was not in projecting Miles Sanders’ usage and skill, but in projecting the effectiveness of the Eagles offense. Philadelphia’s inability to generate offense as a result of Carson Wentz’s regression as a passer, and an oft-injured offensive, line stifled any hopes of Sanders reaching his RB1 ceiling. Unable to generate consistent offense, the team zapped Sanders’ upside. Facing negative Game Scripts, he scored only six (No. 25 among qualified running backs) Total Touchdowns all season.

After four seasons with the Titans, Corey Davis exploded in 2020 partly due to his high efficiency. Not surprising since we mentioned Ryan Tannehill as one of the efficiency outliers at the quarterback position. Davis interestingly displayed great per-target efficiency, yet scored five (No. 35 among qualified wide receivers) Total Touchdowns at a 7.7-percent Touchdown Rate. It’s difficult to imagine a scenario where the Jets offense runs as efficiently as Tennessee’s.

Jerry Jeudy earned a decent amount of opportunities, but the brutal efficiency metrics stood out; among them a -16.5 (No. 82) Production Premium, 7.6 (No. 76) Yards Per Target and 1.38 (No. 102) Fantasy Points Per Target. It’s a big IF, but if Drew Lock improves and we have a healthy Courtland Sutton, then that should help Jeudy in 2021. However, it’s difficult to imagine the opportunities increasing, so hopefully he’s more efficient. Attempt to buy low in dynasty leagues. 

Cam Akers is climbing the dynasty rankings fast. Aaron Jones was a league winner.

Can Patrick Mahomes sustain excellence despite an underwhelming front office? Building championship dynasty rosters and why you need to trust the age apex in fantasy football.

Devonta Smith ranks highly in all of the Breakout Finder metrics, the highest Teammate Score in the BOF database being the highlight, and he protects to be a top-10 NFL Draft pick. A Heisman-winning WR is the kind of player that deserves to be a first round rookie pick in any format.

Tutu Atwell is a straight dog as a receiver with an 18.9 (92nd-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Breakout Age and 35.1-percent (96th-percentile) College Target Share to pair with elite speed and athleticism. He is undersized at 5-9 and 165-pounds, but translates into a dangerous slot weapon in the NFL.

Javonte Williams has created a Big-3, leaving Jermar Jefferson behind. Is Jonathan Taylor the dynasty RB1 right now?

CeeDee Lamb is a screaming buy-high right now. Travis Kelce and D.K. Metcalf are uncomfortable sell high candidates.

Chris Evans’ profile hits many important metrics which can translate to the NFL. This suggests that if he goes in the middle rounds of the NFL Draft, he will start his career as a backup but could be a productive RB2 if he can ever become the starter on his team. He has shown the ability to effectively rush and catch passes, but he has never put it all together at the same time. If he can do it at the next level, he’ll become a quality fantasy asset.

The 6-4, 215-pound Nico Collins has the size to be a starting outside receiver in the pros. In addition, this size means he is likely to have an upper-percentile Speed Score if his 40-yard Dash time is even average. He sports a 19.7 (92nd-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College YPR and a 19.5 (80th-percentile) Breakout Age. If he can pair that size with great athleticism, he’ll have the most upside of any late-round rookie receiver in this class.

Cleveland Browns cornerback Denzel Ward drew 80 (No. 80 among qualified cornerbacks) targets in the 2020 season. Bengals cornerback LeShaun Sims, a lesser-known player than Ward, drew just 78 (No. 78) looks in 13 games. Sims was targeted on a similar scale to Ward. Therefore, these players are close in production, right? Why, hello there Mr. Strawman. Coverage Rating points out that this could not be further from the truth.

The Lions traded away Darius Slay in the hopes of sliding Jeff Okudah seamlessly into his spot in the defensive backfield. This hasn’t worked so far. Okudah only played nine games as a rookie. But he was targeted at a 24.8-percent (No. 6) rate. Passers completed 74.2-percent of their passes looking his way. The next pass he breaks up will be his first as a pro. Only the aforementioned LeShaun Sims posted a lower Coverage Rating than Okudah’s -29.7 showing.