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Denzel Mims has great metrics: a 115.6 (96th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Speed Score, 42.3-percent (85th-percentile) College Dominator Rating, 131.0 (90th-percentile) Burst Score and 10.34 (95th-percentile) Catch Radius. New OC Mike Lafleur’s West Coast offense should feature Mims and Corey Davis on the outside with Jamison Crowder or Keelan Cole in the slot. Mims earned five targets and 40 yards per game as a rookie, and is in the sweet spot for year 2 breakouts.

The “third year breakout” is looking more and more like a myth every year. It’s not impossible to find one. It’s just a long shot. To improve your odds, use the Dynasty Deluxe rankings and take a couple flyers – especially those that have missed time early but have tremendous profiles. Churn them though if they don’t flash right away. No need to keep pyrite on the roster. Guys with high-quality profiles that fit this description include Deebo Samuel and Parris Campbell.

Aaron Jones has had back-to-back seasons finishing in the top-10 among qualified running backs in Weighted Opportunities, allowing him to finish as RB4 and RB3 in Fantasy Points per Game in 2020 and 2019, respectively. A.J. Dillon and his 5.9-percent (33rd-percentile) College Target Share is incapable of replacing Jamaal Williams’ role in the passing game. Jones’ 242 (No. 17) Routes Run are destined to increase and will offset any carries lost to Dillon in 2021.

The sell-high window on Dillon did close when Jones resigned, but now the buy-low window on Dillon has opened. Jones, 27 years old in December, is unlikely to play out his contract which goes into his age-30 season, and would see his 2023 cap hit balloon up to $19.25 million. Find the panicked owners in leagues that are impatient and acquire Dillon at a bargain price.

Elijah Mitchell’s production is fine on the surface, but nothing exceptional for a small-school prospect when looking at the stats. Elite production is a staple for small school players since they play weaker competition. However, Mitchell battled and out-produced three other NFL-caliber players in college. This proves his talent. Also, his production could have been among the best in the nation if not for sharing a field with them, which is why context is so important when evaluating rookies.

Although Mitchell didn’t excel at any trait, it’s essential that he is well-rounded being that he’s a late-round, small school player. This is why his athletic testing could make him the biggest value pick in the class. If he can run fast with the size, production, and receiving ability, he becomes a late-round rookie pick who has NFL workhorse potential. It’s rare to find players with a complete profile like this in the third round or later in rookie drafts.

Real concerns about J.K. Dobbins projection. Joe Mixon is a screaming value.

Anthony McFarland is extremely underrated right now. How much of a longshot is Dwayne Haskins?

In his rookie season, Laviska Shenault had a 7.18 (No. 55 among qualified wide receivers) Target Accuracy mark, along with a 5.0 (No. 83) Target Quality Rating. Yet he was still able to finish with a +27.5-percent (No. 8) Target Premium. With Trevor Lawrence likely to be the Jaguars quarterback in 2021, an upgrade in accuracy allied to his efficiency as a receiver can only mean good things in Year two.

While a member of the Texans, Will Fuller enjoyed a 7.2 (No. 4) Target Quality Rating. His +27.2-percent (No. 2) Target Premium was far and away better than his closest teammate. But Fuller now finds himself on the Miami Dolphins with Tua Tagovailoa, who had a 7.9 (No. 2) Accuracy Rating, as his quarterback. This despite having a single wide receiver with a positive Target Premium. This marriage could be good for all parties.

The Bills have maximized Josh Allen’s size-adjusted athleticism in the most pivotal area of the field when it matters most: the red zone. Rushing touchdown regression is unlikely due to how he is deployed near the goal line. In 2020, we saw him rush 24 times inside the 20, tying him with Kyler Murray for attempts inside that distance. While this usage cripples the fantasy ceilings of Zack Moss and Devin Singletary, it bolsters both Allen’s floor and ceiling.

Even with questionable decision making, questionable play calling, and general coaching ineptitude, Kyler Murray finished the season with a 24.4 (No. 3 among qualified quarterbacks) Fantasy Points per Game average. While he only threw for over 300 passing yards three times, his rushing production more than made up for it. Given his otherworldly burst, it’s not unreasonable to assume he has a shot of breaking the all-time single-season QB rushing record as soon as next year.

Memphis is the new Running Back U. Kenny Gainwell was not a dominant college prospect, but you have to appreciate a 6.3 (79th-percentile among qualified running backs) College YPC average and you have to LOVE a 51-reception season being on the resume.

Nico Collins is 6-4 and 215-pounds. This is elite size and carries starting outside alpha-level upside potential with it. He outproduced Donovan Peoples-Jones for two of their three college seasons together, and was held back by the poor Michigan offense. He adds an 80th-percentile Breakout Age and 92nd-percentile College YPR average. No other players have this kind of upside at this point in the draft.

If I were to take a lesson away from the process of drafting Will Fuller, it would be to target players in drafts where the ADP skews closer towards the bottom percentile outcome of a player. Especially when the ADP is driven down by narratives not based on numbers. Fuller’s injury proneness was and continues to be overrated in fantasy. Further, his Weekly Volatility had a strong chance of changing with De’Andre Hopkins no longer in Texas. When drafting outside of round three, it is beneficial to target the players with the highest ceilings and ignore their floors.

Where things went wrong was not in projecting Miles Sanders’ usage and skill, but in projecting the effectiveness of the Eagles offense. Philadelphia’s inability to generate offense as a result of Carson Wentz’s regression as a passer, and an oft-injured offensive, line stifled any hopes of Sanders reaching his RB1 ceiling. Unable to generate consistent offense, the team zapped Sanders’ upside. Facing negative Game Scripts, he scored only six (No. 25 among qualified running backs) Total Touchdowns all season.

After four seasons with the Titans, Corey Davis exploded in 2020 partly due to his high efficiency. Not surprising since we mentioned Ryan Tannehill as one of the efficiency outliers at the quarterback position. Davis interestingly displayed great per-target efficiency, yet scored five (No. 35 among qualified wide receivers) Total Touchdowns at a 7.7-percent Touchdown Rate. It’s difficult to imagine a scenario where the Jets offense runs as efficiently as Tennessee’s.

Jerry Jeudy earned a decent amount of opportunities, but the brutal efficiency metrics stood out; among them a -16.5 (No. 82) Production Premium, 7.6 (No. 76) Yards Per Target and 1.38 (No. 102) Fantasy Points Per Target. It’s a big IF, but if Drew Lock improves and we have a healthy Courtland Sutton, then that should help Jeudy in 2021. However, it’s difficult to imagine the opportunities increasing, so hopefully he’s more efficient. Attempt to buy low in dynasty leagues. 

Cam Akers is climbing the dynasty rankings fast. Aaron Jones was a league winner.

Can Patrick Mahomes sustain excellence despite an underwhelming front office? Building championship dynasty rosters and why you need to trust the age apex in fantasy football.