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The Pareto Principals Week 10: Good Chalk, Bad Chalk

by Jakob Sanderson, November 12, 2021

Pending injury news, the common structure this week should include one elite running back, paired with one of the free squares, and a game stack around it in the wide receiver slots. This generally presents an either/or question for you to consider in each lineup. Would you rather pair one of the top-owned game-stacks with a unique running back construction? Or would you rather stack an under the radar game and give yourself the chance to play any running backs you wish?

I always say in this column that my goal is to submit lineups that require the fewest number of correct assumptions to win. It is not uncommon to see situations such as last week where a high-ceiling stack such as the Chargers is less than five-percent owned in a small field. Because you are correlating one under-owned decision, you can play far more chalk-pieces around it. I’m playing three-four under-owned players, but it’s all correlated to one singular outcome. This is always my favourite way to play small-fields.

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Targeting Games for DFS Week 10 Matchups

by Chase Vernon, November 12, 2021

There are some great running backs I’d love to play in the DFS Week 10 matchups, but the pricing makes it difficult. However, if you think Washington can come back firing after a bye, then a contrarian play could pay off tremendously. Taylor Heinicke offers rushing upside, so you don’t need to stack a bunch of players around him. In fact, I might argue you can run him naked. However, J.D. McKissic or Terry McLaurin will likely play a role in his success; meanwhile, don’t forget about DeAndre Carter. 

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Three DFS Quarterback-Wide Receiver Stacks for Week 10

by Taylor Williams, November 12, 2021

With fantasy gamers chasing the high point total in the Chargers Vikings game, find a way to get exposure without eating chalk through the Vikes passing game. Justin Jefferson is excelling this year in the red zone and on deep passes; sounds exactly like what you’re looking for in GPPs. Also, consider fading the recent struggles and going back to Josh Allen with one of the highest implied team totals for the week.

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High Value Touch DFS Index – Week 10

by Mark Kieffer, November 11, 2021

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

Leonard Fournette and Ezekiel Elliott (if healthy) are cash game viable this week from this list. James Robinson is an interesting tournament play away from Fournette if he is healthy, and Mike Davis is someone to cross off your player pool list as his elevated ranking is based on the first several weeks of the season more than anything else.

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Week 10 TNF Showdown: Baltimore Ravens At Miami Dolphins

by Matt Babich, November 11, 2021

The Ravens are coming in fresh off of a rebound victory. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense have had their struggles, but have lit up the field and produced three elite scorers at their position. Expect the offense to stay hot versus an average Dolphins defense.

The Dolphins are a mess. The offense has been consistently missing key playmakers. This has forced targets to Myles Gaskin, Jaylen Waddle, and Mike Gesicki. The fins will look to turn things around against a beatable Ravens defense.

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Air Yards DFS Value Index – Week 10

by Edward DeLauter, November 11, 2021

The Elijah Moore breakout is here! Moore finished as the WR1 in week nine posting seven receptions for 84 yards and two touchdowns scoring 27.4 fantasy points. Moore also led the Jets with 93 Air Yards in week nine. While the rookie’s breakout may be stymied by the return of Corey Davis to the lineup, Moore remains a viable play in all formats with the hopes that he will continue to see the field and continue to see a similar Hog Rate as the aforementioned Davis.

Jakobi Meyers has posted three consecutive games under double digit fantasy points and hasn’t finished as a top 24 wide receiver on the week since week four. However, he continues to see significant target volume in the Patriots offense averaging 8 targets per game. Still without a touchdown on the season and an unlikely bet to score this week, Meyers remains a salary saving cash game play. 

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Week 9 – NFC Game Analyst News and Notes

by Cody Carpentier, November 10, 2021

This new season-long mini-series is brought to you by the RotoUnderworld Game Analyst Team. The Game Analyst Team consists of over 75 individuals that chart and re-watch every snap from every game in the NFL between game end, and Monday afternoon.

Philly changed gameplay by relying heavily on run plays overpassing. Throughout the 2021 season, Philly has passed on 53.9% of offensive plays, which is 26th in the NFL. In Week 9, the Eagles were dead last at 31.6%.

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The Fantasy Supermarket: Trade Targets Going Into Week 10

by Matt Babich, November 10, 2021

David Montgomery and D’Andre Swift are both workhorse running backs who are involved in the passing game, but play at two very different levels. Montgomery is an RB2 with RB1 upside, while Swift is an elite bell-cow and a league winner.

The Brandon Aiyuk comeback game has finally arrived. He ran a route on all of Jimmy Garoppolo’s 40 pass attempts, and set season highs in all of PlayerProfiler’s listed box score stats. Aiyuk is returning to normal usage, out of Shanahan’s dog house, and this week’s buy of the week.

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Matchup Monitor: Week 10

by Aditya Fuldeore, November 9, 2021

He’s still splitting time with Melvin Gordon, but Javonte Williams has a good matchup to produce for fantasy purposes this week. The Eagles have allowed 100-plus rushing yards to opposing backfields in seven games this season. Philadelphia has also been a bad matchup for opposing WR corps this season, so expect the Broncos to pound the rock. The Eagles are a good matchup for Williams to produce above his normal output this week.

Seemingly playing through injury this season, Antonio Gibson’s value has not nearly been as high as fantasy community consensus had him at the beginning of the season. He is averaging 3.9 (No. 41 among qualifying RBs entering Week 9) True Yards Per Carry this season, despite 47 (No. 5) Evaded Tackles. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is one of the more difficult matchups for opposing RBs. Gibson will be in for a rough day with smaller rush opportunity this week.

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Week 10 Waiver Wire Watchlist

by Theo Gremminger, November 9, 2021

We talked about Elijah Moore last week in this column as a player trending up. He did not disappoint with a massive game against Indianapolis catching seven passes for 84 yards and two TDs. If he is somehow available, be aggressive and go get him. Moore could end the year with a strong finish and shoot up redraft boards heading into 2022. He is the most explosive player on The Jets and has big-time potential. 

James Conner was one of the stars of Week 9, but Eno Benjamin should be an exciting add this week. Chase Edmonds went down with an ankle injury, and Benjamin stepped in behind Conner. With Edmonds set to miss, look for Benjamin to see the field for about a third of snaps. Conner has dealt with injuries in the past, so expect the Cardinals not to overload him. Benjamin is a strong add, especially in deeper formats.

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