Results for: "rookie RB efficiency"

Memphis is the new Running Back U. Kenny Gainwell was not a dominant college prospect, but you have to appreciate a 6.3 (79th-percentile among qualified running backs) College YPC average and you have to LOVE a 51-reception season being on the resume.

Nico Collins is 6-4 and 215-pounds. This is elite size and carries starting outside alpha-level upside potential with it. He outproduced Donovan Peoples-Jones for two of their three college seasons together, and was held back by the poor Michigan offense. He adds an 80th-percentile Breakout Age and 92nd-percentile College YPR average. No other players have this kind of upside at this point in the draft.

After four seasons with the Titans, Corey Davis exploded in 2020 partly due to his high efficiency. Not surprising since we mentioned Ryan Tannehill as one of the efficiency outliers at the quarterback position. Davis interestingly displayed great per-target efficiency, yet scored five (No. 35 among qualified wide receivers) Total Touchdowns at a 7.7-percent Touchdown Rate. It’s difficult to imagine a scenario where the Jets offense runs as efficiently as Tennessee’s.

Jerry Jeudy earned a decent amount of opportunities, but the brutal efficiency metrics stood out; among them a -16.5 (No. 82) Production Premium, 7.6 (No. 76) Yards Per Target and 1.38 (No. 102) Fantasy Points Per Target. It’s a big IF, but if Drew Lock improves and we have a healthy Courtland Sutton, then that should help Jeudy in 2021. However, it’s difficult to imagine the opportunities increasing, so hopefully he’s more efficient. Attempt to buy low in dynasty leagues. 

Devonta Smith ranks highly in all of the Breakout Finder metrics, the highest Teammate Score in the BOF database being the highlight, and he protects to be a top-10 NFL Draft pick. A Heisman-winning WR is the kind of player that deserves to be a first round rookie pick in any format.

Tutu Atwell is a straight dog as a receiver with an 18.9 (92nd-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Breakout Age and 35.1-percent (96th-percentile) College Target Share to pair with elite speed and athleticism. He is undersized at 5-9 and 165-pounds, but translates into a dangerous slot weapon in the NFL.

If it seemed like Aaron Rodgers threw a passing touchdown on every drive, well, he almost did. Rodgers finished 2020 with 48 (No. 1 among qualified quarterbacks) Passing Touchdowns on 34.2 (No. 27) Team Pass Plays Per Game. Even Green Bay’s 2.00 (two plays per minute) Pace of Play ranked dead last in the NFL. All of this screams “efficiency outlier.”

Given that he falls into the low-efficiency outlier category, it’s not surprising that Baker Mayfield “boasted” a middling 0.45 (No. 18) Fantasy Points Per Dropback average and a -7.5 (No. 23) Production Premium. If the dominant running game remains, which seems likely, he could improve in the efficiency metrics with the play-action game. With projected low passing volume, he’ll need to rely on efficiency to produce anything better than middling or back-end QB2 numbers.

For the next few months, the RotoUnderworld community will be partaking in a series of 12-team, five-round rookie mock drafts. The mock drafters will be comprised of PlayerProfiler writers/analysts, our friends in the Patreon community and our friends over at The Breakout Finder. While these pieces will include quick-hitting notes from the drafters about why they made their selection, our writers will take turns recapping the festivities and adding their own unique perspectives.

With five QBs potentially earmarked for the first round of the NFL Draft, and subsequently the top half of the first round of many a SuperFlex rookie draft, it feels like the middle portion will be the ideal spot to pick from and the range to target in potential trade-downs. For me, having PlayerProfiler’s No. 5-ranked rookie in SF/TEP formats in Travis Etienne waiting for me at the 1.08 reinforces this notion.

For the next few months, the RotoUnderworld community will be partaking in a series of 12-team, five-round rookie mock drafts. The mock drafters will be comprised of PlayerProfiler writers/analysts, our friends in the Patreon community and our friends over at The Breakout Finder. While these pieces will include quick-hitting notes from the drafters about why they made their selection, our writers will take turns recapping the festivities and adding their own unique perspectives.

Coming away with any real takeaways from the first round of any rookie mock draft will be difficult unless there’s a player or two that end up going higher or lower than consensus. Of the players picked in the first round, only Elijah Moore is not ranked among our top 12 dynasty rookies. He’s not that far off, but making an argument for him over a Terrace Marshall or a Kenny Gainwell in this spot is more than feasible given his advanced stats and metrics.

It’s RotoUnderworld vs. RosterWatch in a fierce, ongoing, totally-serious-with-no-room-for-cheeky-shenanigans series of fantasy football mock drafts. We begin with a recap of the first five-round rookie mock under the RW vs. RU banner.

As is the case in every mock draft, there will be picks that wildly stray from what is perceived to be consensus, depending on who you ask of course. The “Kyle Pitts No Matter What” crowd will have no issue with seeing him go at 1.04, even in a single QB, non-TE premium format. However, the first real Point of Divergence came with Cody Carpentier’s 1.06 selection of Jermar Jefferson over Javonte Williams. 

It’s hard to glean too many conclusions given the limited opportunities and a weak Jets offense. However, I’m ready to buy back into Denzel Mims in 2021 redraft leagues and buy low in dynasty leagues. Without Adam Gase as the head coach, it’s stock up for all Jets players, particularly Mims since Gase tends to tank a player’s value. Fantasy managers will likely draft him near his 2020 ADP, so eat that draft value up all day.

Michael Pittman projects as the Colts’ top wide receiver since T.Y. Hilton is an unrestricted free agent. The team also has question marks at the quarterback position with Philip Rivers announcing his retirement. Pittman should earn more opportunities, but temper expectations based on his team being run-heavy and having an uncertain quarterback situation. 

We’ve all seen those videos of Jerry Jeudy and his drool-inducing route running. However, he finished his rookie season among the league’s most inefficient receivers. His inconsistent production makes sense when we consider his decent opportunities but lack of efficiency. Sometimes receivers rely on volume, efficiency, or a mix of both. Hopefully for Jeudy, the opportunities or efficiency improves in 2021.

Gabriel Davis’ 2.21 (No. 11 among qualified wide receivers) Fantasy Points per Target average is unreal given the low amount of opportunities. With Stefon Diggs, John Brown and Cole Beasley all around in 2021, it’s hard to project more opportunities. However, if Josh Allen can prove that the efficiency he displayed in 2019 wasn’t a fluke, Davis can provide sneaky fantasy production as a deep Flex wide receiver.

Along with numerous opportunities, Justin Jefferson also ranks highly in several efficiency metrics. He boasts a +24.8 (No. 8 among qualified wide receivers) Production Premium with 11.2 (No. 4) Yards Per Target and averages 16.0 (No. 9) Yards per Reception. Heading into 2021, he will demolish his past 2020 ADP and likely rank as a high-end WR2 pushing WR1 territory. He made a strong argument as Minnesota’s top wide receiver and the best in this rookie class.

Through 12 games in 2020, Brandon Aiyuk averages 15.4 (No. 17) Fantasy Points per Game on 60 (No. 30) receptions, 748 (No. 35) receiving yards, and seven (No. 17) total touchdowns with a 10.6-percent Touchdown Rate. Seeing the discrepancy in Fantasy Points per Game and receiving production tells us that the high Touchdown Rate boosted his fantasy production. Imagine what his fantasy production would look like if he maintained a similar pace to his most productive six-game stretch over a full season.