This season, only nine teams have allowed more tight-end receptions than the Detroit Lions. Now entering an offensive game script with a 51.5-point Vegas total (the highest on the Sunday afternoon slate) and a revenge narrative against the team that just traded him, it’s no surprise that T.J. Hockenson’s over 4.5 receptions prop is juiced to -130 on sportsbooks.
It’s concerning that in his last three games that Mike Evans hasn’t topped 11 fantasy points despite facing young cornerbacks that rank outside the top-50 in the Cornerback Rankings. Evans has faced two top-10 cornerbacks this season, resulting in two of his three worst performances on the season.
Truth be told, there were no real dramatic shifts in pace this past week. We seem to have reached a point of the season where teams seem to know who they are. The New York Jets jumped from No. 8 a week ago up to No. 4 after playing catchup for the bulk of their loss to the Vikings. But this Jets team tends towards playing fast, so this is not an earth-shattering development. They haven’t ranked lower than No. 8 all season long. What is noticeable is that over their last two games they’ve averaged 2.47 points per drive. In the ten games prior, this mark was just 1.74. I don’t think you’re coming back anytime soon, Zach Wilson.
It’s time Derek Carr gets his flowers. Behind the disaster that is the Raiders, he is averaging 19.27 (No. 11) fantasy points per game and has thrown at least two touchdown passes in every game since week 9. What he lacks in efficiency, he makes up for with his aggression. He’s airing it out with 9.1 (No. 5) Air Yards per Attempt. With 30 (No. 3) Money Throws, we’re even seeing a clutch gene from Carr. He’s been automatic since week 9 and is a top-12 option against a Rams defense that has given up nearly 20 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks over the last four weeks.
Amari Cooper disappointed last week despite the highly anticipated return of Deshaun Watson. He posted only eight fantasy points on nine targets. However he led the Browns with 96 Air Yards. He is clearly Watson’s primary pass catcher in this offense. Look for Amari to bounce back this week against the Bengals. He can be rostered confidently in all formats.
D.J. Moore returns from bye as the Air Yards value play of the week! Perhaps the fourth time is a charm as Moore scored a season high 20.3 with the Panthers utilizing, Sam Darnold, their fourth quarterback this season. Since the trade of Christian McCaffrey, Moore is the focal point of the Panthers offense and sports a league leading 44.6-percent Air Yards share. Play him in all lineups this week.
The Titans allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to WRs entering Week 13. Their secondary has allowed three 100-yard receivers in their last two games. Starting slot corner Elijah Molden is hurt and has missed most of the season. So, Kirk is poised to see large volume against a weakened defense this week.
Neither George Pickens nor Diontae Johnson have scored over 20 fantasy points this season. Pickens has two top-12 finishes while Johnson has none. Pittsburgh has scored over 24 points in a game just once this season, while Pickett has thrown for over 200 yards once in his last five games.
This will be the last week I take a league-wide view of NFL backfields in this column. With the playoffs approaching and trade deadlines largely passed, the utility of analyzing players not already on your team, and not available on the waiver wire reduces significantly. That’s why, instead of focusing on usage shifts in backfields generally, I want to instead focus on the best opportunities for playoff running back stashes.
I have begged everyone to add James Cook for weeks now, and Cook SZN could finally be here. Well, maybe not SZN level, but Flex-worthy James Cook is here, which is still very exciting. This past week, Cook rushed for 64 yards but, more importantly, added six receptions for 41 yards.
This is the Infirmary Report: Post Week 13! The worst part of our beloved game is the frequency of injuries. It’s an unfortunate byproduct of such a fast-paced, contact-heavy sport. It’s something that is important to remember as we approach the first full week of the preseason. Luckily for the NFL players, they have access to some of the best doctors in the world and can usually return to form at least by the next season. Unfortunately for us fantasy players, it’s not always easy to know when a player will get hurt. To another degree, sometimes your roster isn’t big enough to plan ahead for an injury. This series, the Infirmary Report, will give you advice on the injuries that have happened every week during the season. Without further ado, here is the Infirmary Report: Post Week 13 of regular season action.
Chris Olave is the clear alpha wideout for the Saints. The rookie has stepped up big for the team, leading them in both Targets (50) and Receiving Yards (433). I like Olave’s ceiling on any given week as he’s cleared the 100-yard receiving mark three times already this season.
Godwin is the preferred option in this week’s matchup after shredding the Browns for 12/110/1. Godwin has been reliable, having seen double-digit Targets in five of his last six contests.
