The Long Gain: Bargain Running Backs to Target in Week 15

by Zach Krueger ·

Do you want a clear cut sign that we are heading into the twilight of the 2019 season? Perhaps the fact that the players who fell into the RB1 conversation after Week 14 included names such as Raheem Mostert, Boston Scott and DeAndre Washington may be evidence enough.

It’s around this time in the fantasy season that identifying bargain buy running backs becomes difficult, in large due to player injuries (Josh Jacobs) or because an unexpected player rises to the top of the depth chart (Raheem Mostert).

Nevertheless, we push forward in our quest to stack top-tier talent and affordable opportunity on the weekly DFS slates. Here are your weekly bargain buys for the Week 15 DFS slates.

Raheem Mostert, RB, San Francisco 49ers

DraftKings: $5200
Fan Duel: $7500

There’s a major price difference for Raheem Mostert this week between DraftKings and FanDuel, however his recent usage makes him a tremendous value on both platforms.

After averaging only 7.0 Fantasy Points Per Game in his first nine games of the season, Mostert has since averaged 20.7 fantasy points over his last three games, and taken over the lead running back role for the 49ers.

Raheem Mostert 2019 Fantasy Points Scored Courtesy of RotoViz

Since his recent emergence, Mostert averages 13.3 touches, 110.0 yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game. He has also received a 63.3-percent Snap Share or higher in the last two weeks, and has finished those weeks as the RB5 (Week 13) and RB4 (Week 14).

Mostert is the cream that has risen to the top. Which should come as no surprise given that he’s among the most explosive running backs in the league with a 4.42 (95th-percentile among qualified running backs) 40-yard dash and a 134.0 (96th-percentile) Burst Score.

Raheem Mostert Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Now Mostert and the 49ers draw a favorable matchup against the Falcons. Despite allowing -1.4 fantasy points per game below the mean to opposing running backs (No. 21) this season, Atlanta has surrendered 22.5 fantasy points per game to running backs over the last five weeks.

Kyle Shanahan appears dedicated to feeding Mostert, provided that he continues to produce at the level he has of late. In what projects as a winnable game for the 49ers, and considering their high volume rushing attack, Mostert is an attractive start from both a volume and game script perspective. It’s time to once again take advantage of the low cost, and again fire up Raheem “Must Start.”

Phillip Lindsay, RB, Denver Broncos

DraftKings: $5600
Fan Duel: $6400

Phillip Lindsay is another running back whose coach now appears determined to feed him for the remainder of the season. Over the last four weeks, Lindsay has out-touched his backfield counterpart, Royce Freeman 70-32. While Lindsay has not finished any higher than RB17 over that span, the volume is there. The fantasy points may be as well this week.

Lindsay and the Broncos square off against a Kansas City Chiefs team that allows +5.66 fantasy points per game above the mean (No. 4) to opposing backs. Denver will look to get Lindsay involved early as rookie quarterback Drew Lock looks to get comfortable in his third NFL start.

Phillip Lindsay Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

In 2018, Lindsay proved himself as an efficient runner capable of reeling off a big play with a 4.9 (No. 7) True Yards Per Carry and 11 (No. 12) Breakaway Runs.

Early this season, the Broncos looked to establish a balance in their rushing attack between Lindsay and Freeman. That has since fallen by the wayside with Lindsay continuing to look explosive in 2019, posting nine (No. 10) Breakaway Runs on 180 carries. Freeman has one (No. 58) breakaway run on 116 carries.

Should the Broncos manage to keep their Week 15 contest close, Lindsay will have a chance to capitalize on a defense that has allowed 28.8 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs over the past five weeks.

RB Points Scored vs. Kansas City – Last Five Games

Fire Lindsay up with confidence this week against the Chiefs, and you may be rewarded for your faith in his opportunity and matchup.

Miles Sanders, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

DraftKings: $5900
Fan Duel: $6800

Miles Sanders took a back seat to Boston Scott in Week 14, finishing with only 10.9 fantasy points in part due to Sanders heading to the sideline due to an injury. The injury wasn’t major, but the public is high on Scott. Sanders is not only a great play due to price, but because of the potential of inflated ownership for Scott.

Check out Miles Sanders on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:

Sanders erupted for 21.5 points against the Dolphins in Week 13, totaling 105 yards and a touchdown on 22 touches. He has a chance to expose another weak run defense this week. Washington has allowed +2.06 fantasy points per game above the mean (No. 10) to opposing running backs and 23.6 points over the last five weeks. Keep in mind this is also the same Washington defense that allowed 31.2 fantasy points to Aaron Jones last week.

Top RB Scorers vs. Washington – Last Five Games

Both Sanders and Scott should see plenty of run against Washington in Week 15 considering Philadelphia’s current situation at receiver. Both Alshon Jeffrey and Nelson Agholor will miss this week’s contest, and DeSean Jackson‘s season is over.

Sanders has been among the top pass catching backs in the league this season, with 46 (No. 18) targets on the year and 36 (No. 16) receptions for 383 (No. 9) receiving yards. For a team already missing several pass catchers, Sanders should provide plenty of upside as both a rusher and receiver.