PlayerProfiler is home to award-winning dynasty rankings and tools. Our Dynasty Deluxe package includes complete Dynasty Rankings, Rookie Rankings, Trade Analyzer, Draft Planner, Mock Drafts, and more. Check it out! Below, Wolf Trelles-Heard picks one draft value and one fade from the NFC North.
As we get closer to kicking off redraft season for both work and home leagues, I wanted to highlight some current values across the fantasy landscape. I’ll be going one division at a time, starting with the NFC North, and highlighting one player I think is a draft value and one I believe should be faded at cost. For this series, I’ll be using Underdog’s ADP as a baseline until more drafts take place and we get a clearer picture of how players are coming off the board.
Hope you find this info useful and include it in your draft prep to help dominate your leagues. Let’s get started!
Draft Value: D’Andre Swift, Chicago Bears (ADP 74.5, RB26)
Fantasy managers heard it all offseason:
“Ben Johnson hates D’Andre Swift from their time in Detroit together,” protested the pundits.
“The Bears are going to sign J.K. Dobbins or Nick Chubb to be the guy,” others proclaimed.
Well, the offseason came and went, and all the Bears did to “upgrade” their backfield was wait until Round 7 of the 2025 NFL Draft to take Kyle Monangai out of Rutgers. As for Dobbins and Chubb? They’re now in Denver and Houston, respectively.
What the Bears did improve was their offensive line. Chicago made serious interior upgrades by trading for Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson and signing center Drew Dalman. This revamped unit should boost efficiency for Swift, who totaled 1,345 yards and six touchdowns in 2024.
D’Andre Swift Advanced Metrics
After carrying the load last season, Swift is now stepping into a savory role in new head coach Ben Johnson‘s offense, the same system that put up the 4th-most points in NFL history in 2024 during Johnson’s time as Detroit’s offensive coordinator. If Swift gets the bulk of the work, he’ll be in a position to thrive in an offense that ranked 6th in total rushing yards in 2024 and 5th in 2023.
His only competition? The aforementioned Monangai and Roschon Johnson, a former 4th-round pick who averaged just 2.7 yards per carry in 2024. Compare that to Swift, who’s never finished lower than RB21 in total PPR points in any of his five NFL seasons. He puts up reliable RB2 numbers year in, year out.
No one’s going to say “Nice pick!” when you select him in the middle rounds of drafts. But Swift is a perfect target for WR-heavy builds, giving consistent RB2 production with the potential for more in what many expect to be an explosive offense.
Draft Fade: David Montgomery (ADP 70.9, RB23)
This one hurts a little.
Since arriving in Detroit, Montgomery has been nothing but a boon for fantasy managers.
In two seasons with the Lions, Montgomery – nicknamed “Knuckles” due to his power and physicality in the “Sonic and Knuckles” duo with backfield mate Jahmyr Gibbs – has amassed 1790 rushing yards and 25 touchdowns across 28 games. He’s also added 52 receptions for 458 yards. Those numbers helped him finish as RB15 in 2023 and RB16 in 2024 in fantasy points per game.
David Montgomery Advanced Metrics
So why is Montgomery a bad value in 2025 given his ADP compared to recent finishes?
A few reasons:
1. The loss of Ben Johnson
As I mentioned earlier, the Lions’ offense was historically prolific last season, finishing No. 1 in scoring. That level of production will be hard to replicate, especially with a new offensive coordinator in town. Detroit brought in John Morton to replace Johnson. Morton has only called plays once in the NFL – way back in 2017 for the New York Jets, and he was fired after the season.
2. Age and health
While being 28 isn’t old for most positions, it is for a running back. Including playoff games, Montgomery has 1639 career touches over six seasons. That kind of punishment is starting to take its toll – he missed three games in 2023 with rib injuries and three more at the end of 2024 due to a torn MCL in his left knee. When he returned in the Divisional Round against Washington, Montgomery was a non-factor with only 28 yards rushing on seven carries. Hopefully, he’s healthy after a full offseason to recover, but the mileage is starting to catch up to him.
3. The threat of Gibbs
There’s no denying that at this point in their careers, Gibbs is a better player. Counting Week 18, Gibbs finished as the No. 1 RB in PPR scoring last season. He’s a dual-threat weapon who’s far more dynamic than Montgomery. Per Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points, Gibbs averages 31.3 PPR PPG without Montgomery on the field. That’s a number that not even Christian McCaffrey or LaDainian Tomlinson hit during their legendary fantasy seasons.
4. Too TD dependent
This one’s straightforward: Montgomery has scored 430.9 PPR points over the past two seasons. His 25 touchdowns accounted for 34.8 percent of that total. With a snap share of just 42.2 percent last year, Montgomery needs to hit pay dirt weekly to be a solid play.
It’s not hard to imagine a world in which the Lions lean on Gibbs more in 2025, leaving Montgomery as more of a change-of-pace back on early downs. Let someone else draft him based on his name value and past performances, while you look for more upside in this range.
For more articles from PlayerProfiler, check out the fantasy home page – NFL Fantasy | PlayerProfiler – Fantasy Football News & Media
Wolf Trelles-Heard is a fantasy football contributor for PlayerProfiler. Find him on X at @DynastyFFWolf.
