With the ever-changing NFL landscape, new trends develop each week. Using advanced stats, metrics and analytics to identify these trends can lead fantasy grinders toward the next breakout player. Week 13 presented a few player breakouts likely to influence gameplay going forward. With that said, here are three notable trends to think about as we enter Week 14.
Arizona Cardinals – Kenyan Drake
Following Arizona’s bye, Kenyan Drake‘s workload remained a concern in Arizona. With Chase Edmonds returning from a multi-week hamstring injury and David Johnson theoretically getting healthier, Drake faced increased competition. However, he remained the team’s workhorse, playing 85.5-percent of Arizona’s snaps. On the increased playing time, Drake out-carried Johnson 13-4, and out-targeted the veteran 5-2. Johnson did not receive his first touch until the Cardinals trailed 34-0. While the touches remained depressed in severe negative game script, Drake looked like the lead runner in this Arizona backfield.
As for efficiency, Drake also holds a slight edge. His 15.6-percent (No. 49 among qualified running backs) Juke Rate bests Johnson’s 11.8-percent (No. 54) mark, with Drake bringing similar upside in the passing game. He has drawn 59 (No. 9) targets on the year, even playing occasional snaps in the slot. With Johnson showing little ability to create on his own, Arizona appears comfortable with riding Drake down the stretch in 2019.
Indianapolis Colts – Jack Doyle
With Eric Ebron landing on injured reserve, Jack Doyle stepped up and played a feature role in the Colts offense. He played a season-high 98-percent of the snaps in Week 13, with a team-high 27-percent Target Share. Doyle received 11 targets, while running 40 routes on 43 Jacoby Brissett dropbacks. He even ran 25 routes from the slot or out wide, adding to his receiving floor.
Check out Jack Doyle on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:
Doyle has quietly provided Brissett a reliable target this season, aided by a 2.02 (No. 6) Target Separation mark. Already providing Brissett easy pitch-and-catch opportunities, Doyle’s +3.4 Production Premium also ranks No. 10 among qualified tight ends. Now set to play a full-time role in the offense, Doyle is a candidate to lead the Colts in targets to close out 2019.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Ronald Jones
Among fantasy’s more volatile running backs, Week 13 marked a low point for Ronald Jones. The second-year pro played only 28-percent of Tampa Bay’s snaps after missing a pass blocking assignment early in the game. Jones carried only six times for eight yards on his limited opportunities, while failing to record a target in the pass game. However, Peyton Barber also failed to perform in this contest, recording 17 carries for 44 yards. With Dare Ogunbowale also involved, Tampa Bay’s backfield is one to avoid.
Both Jones and Barber remain inefficient in this offense with limited passing game involvement. Both rank outside the top-20 qualified players at the position in Juke Rate, while ranking at or outside the top 40 in True Yards per Carry. Now playing in a three-way time share, Jones is a player to avoid for fantasy purposes heading into the playoffs.