Question: Can the Eagles still win a Super Bowl? Answer: No.
Carson Wentz is the reason the Eagles are 11-2. He is No. 2 in total fantasy points behind only Russell Wilson, and Wentz was having the best season for a second-year quarterback since 2010. This production is not simply impossible to replace. It’s impossible to even approach. When his ACL went, the Eagles’ Super Bowl chances came and Wentz.
Wentz was the great opportunity engine. He was No. 2 in total attempt distance and top-10 in red zone attempts. This is how Wentz the gunslinger led the league with 33 touchdown passes. Looking at the Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson injury fallout, the No. 1 fantasy receivers were largely unaffected.
|Deep Ball Attempts||64||#4|
|Red Zone Attempts||59||#9|
Alshon Jeffery should thrive under Foles. Recall that way back in 2013, Nick Foles led the NFL in touchdown rate, yards per attempt and passer rating. But the secondary receivers in trouble.
Ask Will Fuller and Jordy Nelson how much an elite QB injury affected their production. Then recall that, since the Chip Kelly era, Nick Foles has been the NFL’s worst quarterback based on the advanced metrics. He is averaging 150 yards per game, with 9 total touchdowns to 9 interceptions.
|Fantasy Points||With Elite QB Play||Without Elite QB Play|
|Will Fuller||21.0 p/g||4.8 p/g|
|Jordy Nelson||18.0 p/g||5.3 p/g|
Fortunately for Zach Ertz, the Eagles have a super-friendly schedule for tight ends the rest of the way. Regardless, with Foles at the helm, his ceiling is now capped. Look for the target distribution to narrow. Ertz and Jeffery be heavily involved, but Nelson Agolor is !&*$%!