Running Back Ships In The Night: Buy Alex Collins, Sell Devonta Freeman

by _tim______ ·

Alex Collins has been a popular add in fantasy football. Collins was an impressive prospect at Arkansas. He exceeded 1000 yards for three straight years and scored 20 touchdowns in his final season. While Collins is a sub-athlete, he is an elusive and efficient game breaker on the field (when he’s not fumbling) this season based on his advanced stats, metrics, and analytics player profile.

Collins is also dominating Javorius Allen in every efficiency metric, leading John Harbaugh to insinuate that Collins’ share of the Ravens’ running back opportunities will ramp up moving forward. Add Collins where possible.

Trade Devonta Freeman?

While fantasy gamers have been slow to add Alex Collins across fantasy league platforms, the affinity for former league-winner Devonta Freeman endures. Slotting Freeman into the RB1 slot on fantasy roster twinges the heart. The Devonta Freeman brand name is supercharged with nostalgia, more potent than the novel allure of the ephemeral waiver wire back.

Starting Freeman each week takes fantasy gamers back to a place where they ache to return, and yet, Freeman has not posted a fantasy RB1 week since September 24th.

Devonta Freeman Fantasy Points Last Five Weeks

The situational forces, primarily positive game flow and a high opportunity share, that tilted in Freeman’s favor in 2015 and 2016 are now throttled Freeman’s weekly fantasy production potential. The Falcons were No. 2 in the NFL in Game Script, the average point differential at any point in any given game, in 2016. This season, Atlanta’s Game Script has dwindled to +0.10 (No. 16 in the NFL). Consequently, Freeman weekly touches are down year-over-year, and he has now logged 12 or less carries in three-straight games. Trade Freeman now while his perceived value remains high.