We’re heading into Week 4 of the season, and I already feel like I’ve aged five years. Injuries are piling up, some “locks” from August are looking like liabilities, and a couple of projected bums are suddenly must-starts. That’s fantasy football for you, I guess.
This week’s slate has a few matchups that are forcing my hand on names I really didn’t want to bench and a couple I’m more than happy to sit, no matter how good the name looks on paper.
Let’s get into it.
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Week 4 Starts & Sits
Quarterback
START Joe Burrow, Bengals
I’m not going to pretend the matchup is pretty. Jacksonville has been stingy against quarterbacks, sitting 26th in points allowed to the position — that’s enough to scare a lot of managers off. But I’m chasing the projected point total here, not the matchup grade. Burrow is projected for around 19.6 points in an offense that’s throwing the ball 36-plus times a game. When a quarterback is that entrenched as the engine of his offense, a tough matchup on paper isn’t enough to scare me off.
Burrow’s also sitting in a game with a 27-point implied team total for Cincinnati, which tells me the market expects Cincinnati to move the ball regardless of what Jacksonville’s defensive numbers say. Trust the volume and the offensive environment over the matchup rank this week.
SIT Justin Herbert, Chargers
Okay, enough is enough. I know Herbert’s got the arm talent, and I know he’s been a steady QB1 for stretches, but I can’t in good conscience send him out there against Seattle this week. The Seahawks have been an ugly matchup for opposing quarterbacks, and Herbert’s own implied team total sits at just 18.25, which is dead last among the quarterbacks in fantasy this week.
Watching the Chargers hurts my soul.
Justin Herbert could be so good. But they can’t protect him. His WRs/TEs aren’t good enough to make even a marginally difficult play. The Mike McDaniel scheme doesn’t seem to fit him.
It’s just … sad. pic.twitter.com/DxJHarezAS
— Ralph Vacchiano (@RalphVacchiano) September 27, 2026
That’s not a home run environment; that’s a game script working against him from kickoff. I’d rather chase a QB in a better spot this week and let Herbert ride the bench.
Running Back
START Aaron Jones, Vikings
Don’t overthink this one. Since Jordan Mason went on IR, Aaron Jones has been averaging 20 carries and three targets a game. Guess what? That workload alone should be enough to pencil him in. Then you layer in the matchup, and it gets even easier. Miami is the most generous matchup for running backs in the league right now, allowing 30.3 fantasy points per game to the position.
Between the volume he’s already commanding and a defense that’s been a sieve against the position, this isn’t a week to get cute with a big name on a tougher slate. Jones is one of the safer plays on the entire board. Just run him out there.
SIT Ollie Gordon, Dolphins
I get the appeal on paper; the Fins have a backfield that is like JSN…wide open. But fantasy managers genuinely do not know how the touches are going to shake out in Miami right now. Add in a matchup against Minnesota, which has been one of the tougher draws for running backs all year, plus a Miami implied team total that’s the lowest on the entire slate at 14 points, and there’s just no path to a usable fantasy week here.
Ollie Gordon got 100% of the RB carries after De’Von Achane went down.
17 attempts
41 Yards
TD
3 REC pic.twitter.com/yt3bSttICc— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) October 1, 2026
Leave him on your bench until the role actually clarifies.
Wide Receiver
START Devaughn Vele, Saints
The matchup grade looks scary at first glance, but it’s not. Atlanta has been generous to opposing receivers, allowing the seventh-most fantasy points. I’m not fading Vele here, because the rest of the picture is too good to ignore. He’s playing over 95% of New Orleans’ snaps, and this game carries a 25.5-point implied team total for the Saints, which is right up there with the highest on the board.
On Devaughn Vele – some fun with numbers:
TPRR on Saints = 15.4% (WR5 territory)
Because of sheer volume (pace, PROE, etc), if you held his targets constant and applied it to normal route volume:
20.5% (WR3/Flex territory)
Vele leads the NFL in routes run
— Zain Dhanani (@DhananiZain) September 29, 2026
When a receiver is entrenched in the offense, and the Vegas number suggests this game is going to have some real points on the board, I care a lot less about a defense’s season-long matchup rank. Vele’s pulling in over eight targets a game at that snap share. That volume travels regardless of who’s across from him.
SIT Rome Odunze, Bears
We’ve been patient with Rome Odunze, but he’s playing as the Bears’ WR3 — not the alpha we all drafted him to be. Take away Caleb Williams, and it gets even murkier for a Chicago passing game that isn’t easy to map out.
Then there’s the matchup. The Jets have been one of the tougher draws in the league for opposing wide receivers, allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points to the position. The bad offensive situation, plus a difficult matchup, is about as clear a sit as you’ll find this week
Tight End
START Travis Kelce, Chiefs
Taylor Swift’s husband still looks spry out there, to be honest, and the résumé speaks for itself. Kelce’s been a fantasy staple for a decade, and he’s coming off a solid day despite catching just two passes. I’m not about to bet against him just because he’s not 25 years old anymore.
TRAVIS KELCE DOESN’T AGE BRO pic.twitter.com/uF78c4KBM6
— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) September 27, 2026
The matchup only sweetens the pot. Las Vegas has been one of the better matchups for tight ends this season, and Kelce’s still commanding a strong target share in an offense that leans on him in the red zone. When production, role, and matchup all line up like this, you start him, and you don’t look back.
SIT Hunter Henry, Patriots
I hate to say it about a guy who’s been reliable for years, but Henry might be running on fumes right now. The tape hasn’t been good, the target volume has quietly dried up, and I’m not interested in betting on a Patriots offense suddenly figuring things out this week.
I cannot start a tight end who’s trending in the wrong direction. Until I see real signs of a turnaround, Henry’s a bench piece for me.
Final Thoughts
Three weeks are in the books, and the lesson keeps repeating itself: don’t marry the name on the jersey; marry the role and the matchup. Burrow and Vele show you can push through a scary-looking defensive matchup on paper when the volume and scoring environment back you up, while Herbert and Odunze prove the reverse: sometimes the name isn’t enough to save a bad spot. Trust the process over the preseason rankings, and you’ll be in good shape.
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