Week 1 is in the books, and our attention turns firmly to Week 2. The takes are in, and we’ve had overreactions and underreactions galore. But one thing is for sure: you can’t outrun jet lag, Sean McVay.
Sportsbook Rankings vs Expert Consensus Rankings
On a week-to-week basis, sportsbooks release player props for receptions, receiving yards, any-time touchdowns, rushing yards, and passing yards.
These are the exact stats that we track in fantasy football. By translating these lines into fantasy points, we can estimate how sportsbooks would rank players. These will be referred to as the “sportsbook rankings” throughout. We also have that in fantasy football in the form of expert consensus rankings, referred to as ECR throughout.
So why not pit the two against each other?
Well, that is exactly what we are doing.
Every week, I’ll highlight one player at each position with the biggest gap between expert consensus rankings, and sportsbook rankings. Let’s dive in:
Quarterback: Bo Nix
Sportsbook Rank: QB12
ECR: QB18
Heading into the season, Bo Nix was the poster boy of late-round quarterback strategies. Nix has an elite offensive line that is ranked No. 1 by PFF and a host of weapons headlined by the off-season acquisition of Jaylen Waddle. In Week 1, Nix and the Broncos offense failed to get going, scoring just 10 points in an inauspicious start to Davis Webb’s play-calling career (gee, I wonder how long that will last with Sean Payton lurking).
Nix finished with just 131 passing yards, one touchdown and one interception. The Broncos face the Jaguars at home in Week 2, and the books are expecting Nix to bounce back, while the ECR is expecting Nix’s woes to continue. Nix has an over/under of 220.5 passing yards and 20.5 rushing yards, which translates to a QB12 ranking for the week.
Running back: Javonte Williams
Sportsbook Rank: RB7
ECR: RB12
Like last season, Javonte Williams got off to a fast start in Week 1, scoring two touchdowns for the second consecutive year. Despite a costly taunting penalty, Williams finished the week as the RB9. Williams did that on 17 opportunities, even though the high-powered Cowboys offense struggled to get going. Most encouragingly, Williams recorded five targets. He only hit that number three times last season.
Williams gets the Commanders at home in Week 2. The Cowboys have an implied team total of 27.5, which is the fifth-highest on the Week. Williams has the sixth-highest rushing yard over/under total of all RBs (74.5 yards). ECR has Williams ranked as a low-end RB1, while sportsbooks have him at RB7.
Wide Receiver: Marvin Harrison Jr
Sportsbook Rank: WR43
ECR: WR34
Marvin Harrison Jr. entered the league with the “generational” moniker following an elite collegiate career which saw him log over 2,400 yards and 28 TDs across his final two seasons. Since entering the league, Harrison Jr. has been a continual source of fantasy frustration, and Week 1 proved no different. Harrison Jr. logged just three targets, one reception and 33 receiving yards. At this point, we’re accustomed to Michael Wilson getting more targets than Harrison Jr. However, Kendrick Bourne logged five more targets than the third-year receiver. Now, that is a punch in the gut.
Sportsbooks expect the Marvin Harrison Jr. heartache to continue in Week 2. They rank him as the WR43 on the week, with a receiving yard over/under of just 35.5 yards. The experts are slightly more optimistic in their outlook — ranking him as the WR34.
Tight End: Isaiah Likely
Sportsbook Rank: TE3
ECR: TE8
Isaiah Likely was at the center of multiple Ravens frustrations over the last few seasons. First, there was the toe out of bounds play against the Chiefs. Then, came the fumble in the end zone against the Steelers. Then, there was the goal-line fumble against the Bengals. Week 1 in New York got off to an eerily unfortunate start. Likely fumbled the ball before it was recovered by Patrick Ricard.
Likely went on to have a monster game. He had eight receptions on eight targets for 78 receiving yards and two touchdowns. He finished as the TE1 on the week. While Likely played just 49% of the snaps and benefited from facing a Cowboys “All You Can Eat Buffet” defense , sportsbooks remain bullish on Likely, ranking him as TE3 for Week 2 compared with TE8 in ECR.
