James Robinson is a running back for the Jacksonville Jaguars, and played his college ball at Illinois State. A native of Rockford, Illinois, Robinson played basketball and football at Rockford Lutheran High School, and rushed for 2,461 yards and 44 touchdowns as a senior. He set the IHSA record for rushing yards (9,045) and touchdowns (158). During his time at Illinois State, Robinson’s college stats totaled 4,444 career yards and 46 touchdowns, and was named first-team All-MVC three times, and first-team FCS All-American in his final year. The Jaguars signed Robinson as an undrafted rookie free agent following the 2020 NFL Draft, but it wasn’t long before Robinson was being leaned on as Jacksonville’s leading rusher as a rookie.
As a rookie, James Robinson displayed the traits of a true bell cow, ranking second amongst all running backs in opportunity share in 2020 (85.7%) and sixth in overall snap share (70.8%). In his rookie season, Robinson rushed for 240-1070-7, while also catching 49 passes for 344 yards and another three scores. Despite an underwhelming 40-yard dash (4.64), Robinson has elite athleticism at the running back position with a SPARQ-X score of 127.5 (90th-percentile) despite having a disappointing 40 time of 4.64.
Robinson looked like an absolute steal for the Jaguars, as they appeared to have found a solid back for their offense for years to come. Then, in one of many misguided moves by Urban Meyer during his short stint with the team, he opted to invest a first round draft pick in Clemon running back Travis Etienne. Despite the Etienne pick, Robinson found himself back in the saddle as the team’s RB1 after Etienne suffered a torn ACL during training camp.
While he didn’t see quite the same snaps he saw as a rookie, Robinson still closed out 2021 ranking 13th with a 66.5% opportunity share and a rushing line of 164-767-8. His 28.9% dominator rating ranked eighth amongst all running backs, although Robinson wasn’t receiving much competition for touches last season. He ranked 21st in true yards per carry (4.4) and was 13th with a 30.8% juke rate, proving that what we saw from him in 2020 was no fluke. As a receiver, Robinson had a 9.3% target share on 224 routes run (19th), and had only three drops on the season. He ranked 28th in yards created and was 18th in the league with 60 evaded and broken tackles.
Robinson’s 2022 is up in the air however, as he suffered a torn Achilles in Week 16 against the Jets, which is an injury known for its lingering effects on players. Robinson finished 2021 with a fantasy ranking of RB20 in fantasy points per game (12.4), but how he handles the rehab from his Achilles tear will give us a sense of what we can expect from him next season.
In addition to rebounding from an injury, Robinson could also see his value hurt by the return of Etienne. His ADP is likely to look like a solid buying point during the offseason, but there’s a good chance that drafting Robinson winds up more as a wasted pick than a league-winning one. At some point next season he will return, but he’s far from a lock to be ready for Week 1.
