Fantasy Football

Where Leonard Fournette has the advantage over Ronald Jones is in the passing game. While playing for LSU, Fournette averaged an 11.9-percent (85th-percentile among qualified running backs) Target Share. He’s been just as good in the NFL. In 2019, he posted 522 (No. 5) receiving yards on 76 (No. 5) receptions. Jones hasn’t proven he’s capable. His College Target Share falls in the 18th-percentile, while his usage in the NFL to this point speaks volumes.

The Jacksonville backfield might look entirely different in 2021, but this year’s group can certainly provide fantasy value. While there are reasons to like both Devine Ozigbo and Ryquell Armstead, James Robinson is the back to own here. With an FFPC ADP of 302.25, he is as cheap as they come. Not to mention, Jaguars coach Doug Marrone praised Robinson’s camp and admitted it aided in the decision to cut Leonard Fournette. Wheels up.

All things considered, the argument for Jared Goff in 2020 revolves around trusting Sean McVay to put him in positions to win, which includes running more 12 personnel. The argument against Goff is twofold. The spiked 12 personnel usage was schedule-dependent. In addition, there is a chance the league adjusts to the team’s 12 personnel usage come Week 1. Though shipping Brandin Cooks and Todd Gurley out of town suggests the former.

The Rams have 126 (No. 13) Vacated Targets entering 2020. Beyond Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbee is the next logical in-house option to assume a bump in targets for. That is, assuming the team’s 2019 personnel usage rates remain comparable in 2020. The third option in the Rams offense will be viable in fantasy and needs to be for Jared Goff’s sake. The last five weeks of 2019 suggest the third option is Higbee.

While Cam Akers, the current RB22 per FFPC ADP data, holds top 10 upside in 2020 and beyond, the Rams’ veteran starter in Malcolm Brown goes undrafted in most formats. If Darrell Henderson, the current RB47, stays healthy, the three-headed monster in LA could be a pain for fantasy games all season long. If Akers takes the reigns early, he has the highest upside and has league-winner written all over him.

The dynamic trio of Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram, and J.K. Dobbins can all be had, but at a steep price, with all three going inside the first six rounds in FFPC formats. Spending early round capital on multiple backs in the same backfield is less than ideal in fantasy football. Though if you can hedge the Ravens backfield by pairing Jackson in Round 2 with both Ingram AND Dobbins in the mid-rounds, it will give you an upper hand on the competition. 

Over the past two seasons, Nyheim Hines has demonstrated that he’s competent enough to take advantage of a plus situation. He has averaged 5.4 yards per touch on an average of 68 carries and 69 targets per season. With the switch to Philip Rivers comes a positive switch in the allocation of positional targets. Last year, the Rivers-led Chargers led the league with 182 RB targets after ranking in the top-5 the year before with 141 targets.

Coming off a 63-catch campaign on 85 targets in 2018 as a rookie, Hines followed that up with a 44-catch season in 2019. In fact, he has a sneaky chance to rival Christian McCaffrey as the leader in catches among running backs. Unlike with the Los Angeles Chargers the past two seasons, Hines is the only back for the Colts that will fill the pass-catching role. This may end up making him close to a full-time player depending on Game Script.

N’Keal Harry has great size-adjusted speed and explosiveness with prototypical WR1 size. He’s the favorite to be the second receiver behind Julian Edelman on a thin Patriots WR depth chart. We need to wake up and remember this guy was an elite college prospect who fell victim to injuries as a rookie. He’s healthy and ready to take that year two jump, and he’s almost free to draft.

Andy Isabella closely comps to T.Y. Hilton and Tyler Lockett. While he may need a few things to break his way in order to carve out a significant role given the presence of DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, and Larry Fitzgerald, Isabella is in a far better position to break out this year than he was a year ago. One injury to a top-three receiver, and he will be poised for a massive breakout. He has the athleticism and skill to dominate. He just needs the chance.

With a low 8.0 (No. 91 among qualified wide receivers) Average Target Distance mark, it’s not surprising that Jamison Crowder finished with a -4.0 (No. 54) Production Premium. However, efficiency becomes less of an issue with the target volume he receives. He’s the 41st receiver drafted on average per FFPC ADP data and is a solid WR3, at worst, for any squad. The target hogging and draft value make Crowder one of the best wide receivers to draft after pick No. 100. 

Randall Cobb proved to be efficient with 15.1 (No. 22) yards per reception, 10.0 (No. 9) yards per target, and a +10.3 (No. 27) Production Premium, all with the 48th-most targets. With DeAndre Hopkins traded to the Arizona Cardinals, the Texans have 167 (No. 6) Vacated Targets. Most of those targets project to head towards Brandin Cooks, but there’s a chance for Cobb to be in the 70-80 target range paired with an elite quarterback once again.

The Guillotine League is another example of the creativity surrounding the industry. There’s a reason fantasy gamers are latching on. For those new to the format, The Guillotine is a redraft league that uses total points, rather than head-to-head matchups. The twist; at the end of each week, the team with the fewest points is chopped. Meaning, they are cut from the league. The team’s players then go into the free agent pool. Last team standing wins. Interested yet?

When approaching a Guillotine draft, dependability is king. The players to target are those most likely to produce at a high level early in the season. Aaron Jones is an example of the type of player to roster for this type of league; a reliable starter with a friendly projected schedule early on. Building a core of these players will provide the best chance of moving up the points board.

There is no doubt that Drew Brees was the best passing quarterback in the NFL last season. Efficiency, although impressive, does not equate to fantasy football upside. His 6.8 (No. 32) yards of Pass Attempt Distance Per Attempt attributed to his efficient play in fantasy last season. His efficiency won’t matter when he loses passing volume. Because volume leads to fantasy points, Brees’ decreased pass attempts will disappoint people drafting him top 7 at his position.

Tyler Higbee had two events occur for him to become a fantasy football sensation. The first was he faced the easiest stretch of tight end defenses over five weeks. The second was a knee hyperextension to Gerald Everett in Week 12. Higbee’s current FFPC ADP of 74.58 is an example of projecting a small sample size out to a full season. A healthy Everett will prevent Higbee from returning expected value at his ADP cost.

It’s possible Leonard Fournette fulfills the final year of his contract with Jacksonville before moving on to free agency in 2021. However, a split between he and the Jaguars might be exactly what both sides need. The team would receive compensation they otherwise wouldn’t if Fournette left in free agency. They’d also have the opportunity to observe the younger backs on the team. The change would give him the chance to reestablish himself as a quality starter in the league.

When 2021 rolls around, the Ravens backfield will look much different. Mark Ingram will be in consideration to be cut if J.K. Dobbins meets expectations and Gus Edwards will be a free agent (though, a “team friendly” extension isn’t out of the question). The Ravens could hold on to Justice Hill for the backup role when the dust settles next season, but moving him now might prove beneficial, and would really open things up for Dobbins, whom they are so excited about.

Standing at 5-7, Boston Scott packs a punch with his 4.45 (91st-percentile among qualified running backs) 40-yard dash and 10.82 (97th-percentile) Agility Score. Scott finished 2019 on a tear, totaling 350 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns over the final four games. Although undersized, he fits perfectly in the Eagles scheme as a satellite back and spot starter with RB2 upside.

While Melvin Gordon was holding out in 2019, Justin Jackson was busy competing with Austin Ekeler for touches. In three weeks as the primary backup, Jackson averaged eight touches per game to 19 for Ekeler. Jackson’s ability to evade tacklers with a 10.88 (96th-percentile) Agility Score allowed him to gain 6.9 Yards Per Carry and nine first downs on only 29 (No. 82) carries. In the event Ekeler goes down, it would be Jackson that would get the call to replace him, not the rookie Joshua Kelley.