Fantasy Football

Last season, Cooper Kupp had one of the most productive WR seasons ever. He led the league in receptions (145), TD receptions (16), and receiving yards (1947). By simply drafting Kupp, fantasy managers gave themselves a chance at winning their league titles. But what gets lost in the shuffle is Kupp was being drafted a few spots behind his teammate in Robert Woods. Woods did not lead managers to fantasy titles, to say the least. 

In an earlier article, we set out to understand the structural differences between ADP in Underdog best ball drafts and FFWC high stakes drafts. Today, we take the next step and look at players whose ADPs differ from these trends and create opportunities for arbitrage between the two sites.

Rookie Draft Season for a lot of leagues has come and gone, but I still have several leagues of my own that have not yet drafted.  This is our first look at a superflex rookie mock draft for August 2022.  I will give my analysis for each round and hopefully you can start to see where fantasy players are valuing these rookies.

What we define as “player velocity” in this study is how much a player’s ADP changed from one season to the next. In 2021, Jonathan Taylor reached high speed. Fantasy gamers were selecting him in round three his rookie season (2020). He then shot up into the late first round in 2021 drafts. Taylor finished RB1 in half-PPR points per game (minimum twelve games played) in 2021.

However, today we want to increase our odds of that winning combination beyond leaving it to random chance. Just as we know Bob and Sandy are better apart than together, we can increase our odds by avoiding certain combinations and prioritizing others. In the final part of my best ball strategy series, we talk roster constructions. As best ball summer reaches its close, I will discuss introductory elements of construction which also apply to your managed leagues, as well as include notes on how to take advantage of your “late” draft time in best ball.

The worst part of our beloved game is the frequency of injuries. It’s an unfortunate byproduct of such a fast-paced, contact-heavy sport. It’s something that is important to remember as we approach the first full week of the preseason. Luckily for the NFL players, they have access to some of the best doctors in the world and can usually return to form at least by the next season.

Johnson reminds me a lot of Allen Robinson from a year ago. Remember when Andy Dalton and rookie Justin Fields were the best quarterbacks Robinson was going to play with? Mitchell Trubisky, ironically now teammates with Johnson, was hardly a world beater with the Bears, but he and Robinson definitely had a healthy connection.

Let’s talk about some regression candidates for 2022 from each position in fantasy football. Not all regression is negative. Analytical metrics can call for positive regression aka the regression fantasy managers want to see from their players. Okay, I have mentioned the word ‘regression’ enough (just did it again). Let’s check out some candidates that could be affected for the 2022 season.

We now have over one month of data from FFWC $350 Player Profiler Championship drafts. Here are some of the ADP Risers, or players that have moved up the most.  (July 3rd to August 3rd)

This article will attempt to identify the WR targets fantasy gamers would need to excel after an RB heavy start. In a format like the FFWC, starting with three straight RBs and a TE or four straight running backs is possible…..as long as we select the right players.