How to trade for Alexander Mattison. D.J. Moore, CeeDee Lamb and Allen Robinson are proper alpha receivers.
Calvin Ridley is a catch-and-fall down wide receiver. Phillip Dorsett has sneaky upside in Seattle.
Alvin Kamara is an elite change-of-pace back, but has never carried the ball more than 194 times in a season. In 42 out of 50 career games, he has carried the ball 14 times or less. He also has only two 100-yard rushing games in his three-year career. He will age well because he is such a great receiving threat, but will fall more into the Darren Sproles/James White category sooner than later, which means he is more of an RB2 than RB1 in half or full point PPR dynasty leagues.
Whether in shotgun or under center, Drew Brees’ presence forces defenses to not stack the box. What if Brees retires, and is replaced by turnover-prone Jameis Winston? What if it’s a running quarterback who hasn’t proven he can throw downfield and keep secondaries honest in Taysom Hill? Or worse, a rookie QB? This would create a harder time for Kamara to produce and maximize his limited touches per game.
Nick Chubb over Miles Sanders is defensible but not advised. Calvin Ridley is not this year’s Chris Godwin, but Tyler Boyd could be.
Joe Mixon is dropping post-holdout rumors. Targets considered earned unless your name is Leonard Fournette.
Devin Funchess serves no specific role in a run-first offense with an established alpha at wide receiver. His efficiency and productivity metrics in 2018 were deplorable, but he did lead the league in one category: drops. Funchess’ 75.9-percent (No. 90 among qualified wide receivers) True Catch Rate and 13.9-percent (No. 1) Drop Rate do not mix well with Aaron Rodgers’ well-known lack of tolerance for drops.
The Pittsburgh Steelers succeeded this off season in obliterating the role Jaylen Samuels enjoyed in 2019. Samuels failed to capitalize when called upon each time James Conner suffered an injury. He is in a touch squeeze with Benny Snell and fourth-round rookie Anthony McFarland. He faces additional target competition from second-round pick Chase Claypool and free agent addition Eric Ebron. Samuels is no longer a late-round committee receiving back who is an injury away from monster fantasy weeks.
Marquise Brown is about to melt faces in the NFL. John Ross and Curtis Samuel are among the fastest wide receivers in the NFL.
CeeDee Lamb is an elite building block wide receiver. Kyler Murray is more durable than Lamar Jackson.
N’Keal Harry didn’t live up to the hype in his rookie campaign, but 2020 brings promise. Young Jarrett Stidham is now the quarterback in New England, and he will need more help than Tom Brady had last year to keep the Patriot machine rolling. Beyond Julian Edelman, who is 34-years old, there is a lack of playmakers at wide receiver. With a year of experience in the offense under his belt, Harry is primed for a big sophomore season.
The hype surrounding Parris Campbell in 2019 was real, but a rash of injuries derailed his rookie campaign. The addition of Philip Rivers is a boon for the Colts offense, and for Campbell in particular. While with the Chargers, one of Rivers’ primary targets was Keenan Allen, who played over 50-percent of his snaps from the slot. According to Colts coach Frank Reich, the slot is exactly where Campbell will play this season, making him a high-upside value proposition.
David Montgomery is viewed as a borderline RB2 in seasonal drafts this year and he is obtainable in dynasty trades. He’s ranked as the RB25 on PlayerProfiler’s dynasty rankings, while the “World Famous Draft Kit” ranks him at RB23 in seasonal PPR leagues. His FFPC ADP is in the mid-40s and he often falls into the fifth round of drafts. Chicago’s lackluster 2019 season diminished the fantasy value of its star players. Many will pass on Montgomery this season, failing to see his upside.
The consensus is that Montgomery’s ceiling starts and ends with Jordan Howard’s 2018 production. A deeper dig quickly shows this is not the case. Montgomery, as a rookie, matched Howard’s 2018 stats in fewer games, outperforming Howard in almost every efficiency metric available on PlayerProfiler. He’s inefficient, but faces high volume with a better overall profile than Howard. He’s being drafted and traded with expectations of being the next Howard. Buying Montgomery at that value is a win.
Does handcuffing RBs make sense in best ball? Building the case for selecting Joe Mixon over Michael Thomas.
Is Calvin Ridley a league winner? Dalvin Cook has more leverage than contract experts claim.
To get a feel for the new-look Bengals offense we have to look at Joe Burrow from an unbiased perspective. On DraftKings Sportsbook, his over/under totals are set at 3,700 yards and 21 touchdowns. While this is on the lower side in terms of passing production, Burrow will make a great fantasy asset due to his rushing floor. In two years as LSU’s starter, he rushed for 767 yards and 12 touchdowns. It’s his receivers we should be concerned about. Rookie quarterbacks struggle to support one top-36 wide receiver, nevermind two.
Despite having four picks in the top 50 of a loaded wide receiver draft, Miami’s only addition to the receiver room this offseason was seventh-round pick Malcolm Perry. DeVante Parker will have to compete with a healthy Preston Williams and Mike Gesicki for targets, but his talent has become undeniable. Any regression caused by Tua Tagovailoa in the back end of the season is already baked into his cost. Parker is a safe, high-end WR3 with top 15 upside.
Terry McLaurin’s 2.38 (No. 19 among qualified wide receivers) Yards per Pass Route, one of the more predictive metrics for future fantasy production, ranks third among rookie wide receivers over the last three seasons. An indication of how efficient he is and how good he can truly be with more targets. Speaking of more targets, with a year of experience under his belt and a new coaching staff bringing in a more pass-friendly philosophy, McLaurin is in line for a significant bump in 2020.
If we could count on consistent quarterback play in Washington, McLaurin would be even more of a smash pick in the middle rounds. We have to trust that with a full training camp as the starter, Dwayne Haskins’ play will improve from year one to year two. Even modest improvements would help McLaurin take the significant second-season jump we expect that he will. If Haskins turns out to be good, we’ll be talking about McLaurin as 2020’s biggest steal by season’s end.
