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The New York Jets have made an effort to build up the offense around quarterback Sam Darnold in 2020. Though Robby Anderson departed for Carolina, the Jets responded by adding Breshad Perriman in free agency and Denzel Mims in the draft. Perriman is a more than capable replacement for Anderson. As for Mims, the Baylor product should become an instant favorite of Darnold’s, and a true target hog. 

Will Fuller is the true, lone incumbent of this Houston reveling crew, and has established rapport with Deshaun Watson. His health is a constant question mark, but there is no question what he is capable of when healthy. In 2019, the wideout carried an astounding 84.5-percent (No. 28 among qualified wide receivers) True Catch Rate through his 11 games played. If there is to be a sole beneficiary of the available targets, Fuller is the best bet.

Sony Michel and James White are both better off with Cam. Joe Mixon signs an extension and immediately comes off the fade list.

Dalvin Cook can’t get off the fade list. Kenny Golladay beat the fade list last year.

There are many data points on the JaMycal Hasty profile that make him a worthwhile stash. The big knock on him is his 12.8-percent (13th-percentile among qualified running backs) College Dominator Rating. He played four seasons of college ball but peaked at second in rushing yardage on his own team. He has an intriguing skillset for a UDFA, but the incoming price correction from fantasy players overreacting to the Raheem Mostert news could make him a chalk-fade within weeks.

Jeff Wilson’s athleticism doesn’t immediately rule him out of fantasy viability, but it certainly puts him at a disadvantage. He did not record a single athletic measurable that was above average when testing. Unlike JaMycal Hasty, what Wilson lacks in athleticism he makes up for with actual production. He also has reps in the most valuable role in modern football: the goal line back. He recorded 2.3 red zone carries per game in San Francisco’s first seven games last year.

Phillip Dorsett is currently slotted in as the number three receiver in Seattle and the primary deep threat. Last season, Tom Brady had a 100.6 QBR when targeting Dorsett, good enough for No. 32 among qualified players. He will now be drawing targets from Russell Wilson; who boasted a 110.9 (No. 4) True Passer Rating in 2019 with a 39.8-percent (No. 12) Deep Ball Completion Percentage.

Kaden Smith’s usage in seven games last season was absurd with a 94.6-percent (No. 1) Snap Share, a 70.9-percent (No. 8) Route Participation mark, and a 16.7-percent (No. 11) Target Share on an offense that saw the seventh-most pass plays per game. He managed 10.8 Fantasy Points per Game with a 73.8-percent (No. 12) Catch Rate with three (No. 19) touchdowns. Add in Engrams No. 5 Injury Probability ranking and No. 11 Fragility Rating and we have the recipe for a TE1 in fantasy football.

Leonard Fournette will not be sharing touches and that matters. The Counselor is conflicted over Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

Why Jerry Jeudy’s footwork video went viral. What is Patrick Laird like in real life?

At 6-1 and 205-pounds, Marquez Callaway boasts above average marks in Speed Score and College Dominator Rating. Despite a below average 40-Yard Dash time, the Tennessee product boasted a 19.0 (90th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College YPR mark. Not to mention a 19.4 (80th-percentile) Breakout Age. The young receiver has the requisite profile and college production to make noise in the NFL.

There were few better landing spots for JaMycal Hasty; joining a 49ers squad that churns out productive backs, undrafted or otherwise. With Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman leading the way in San Fran, there is little else for depth behind them. A path is clear for Hasty on a team that utilizes the receiving skills of their backs; a specialty of the undrafted rookie. Like Mostert and Matt Breida before him, Hasty looks to make his mark in the city by the bay.

Irv Smith recorded 36 (No. 23 among qualified tight ends) receptions for 311 (No. 33) yards with two (No. 33) touchdowns as a 21-year-old rookie. To put that into context, that’s No. 3 in receptions and No. 6 in yards all time for a tight end at age 21. He was able to accomplish this while having a mere 61.7-percent (No. 34) Shap Share and, per PFF, rush blocking on 43.3-percent of his snaps with a No. 22 grade out of 67 qualified tight ends. 

Tight end is considered the toughest offensive position to come into and produce right away at the pro level. Smith was able to do so as a 21-year-old rookie back-up tight end, making his 2019 season even more impressive. The combination of producing at such a young age, the athletic profile, and the current passing options on the Vikings make him a prime buy candidate before his eventual breakout.

Draft capital is extremely important for wide receivers. After that, age-adjusted college production isn’t just the most important metric, it’s the only one that matters. Aside from maybe Speed Score, athleticism doesn’t matter for wide receivers. College market share numbers look more predictive of a breakout season than college efficiency, although our ideal prospect will have both.

Our highest profile bust candidate is easily Henry Ruggs, whose strong draft capital does not do enough to mask the spotty college production profile. Of our 55 breakout wide receivers with at least one season of 15 Fantasy Points per Game or more, only college quarterback Julian Edelman and college wide receiver/running back Wes Welker posted a lower College Dominator Rating than Ruggs’ 17.5-percent (17th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) mark.

The Carolina Panthers offense is loaded with explosive talent all across the board. The defense, on the other hand, is young and terrible. With a 53.3-percent (97th percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Dominator Rating, D.J. Moore is a great target to pair with Teddy Bridgewater and his 7.8 (No. 2) Accuracy Rating.

Joe Burrow posted a 94.9 (99th-percentile) College QBR in a Heisman season for the ages. The Cincinnati Bengals offense has the tools to take off in Zac Taylor’s system. Wide receiver A.J. Green’s 66.7-percent (No. 3) Contested Catch Rate from 2018 will pair nicely with Burrow’s 76.3-percent Completion Percentage. 

Draft capital is extremely important for running backs. After that, College Dominator Rating and Breakout Age are the most important metrics. Speed Score is the most important and predictive Combine metric that we have for the position. There are also thresholds for College YPC (6.0) and College Target Share (10.0-percent) we should want our running backs to meet when looking for breakout candidates.

Those looking for a sleeper running back should look no further than Antonio Gibson. He was incredibly explosive when he received touches, posting an 11.2 (99th-percentile among qualified running backs) College YPC mark with a 12.7-percent (88th-percentile) College Target Share. He certainly fits the mold of a breakout running back candidate being in an ambiguous backfield and possessing pass-catching chops.