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Chase Edmonds is the quintessential satellite back that earned a ton of targets and receiving production, yet barely earned many opportunities. He finished with a 37.6-percent (No. 48 among qualified running backs) Opportunity Share, 68 (No. 6) Targets, and 165.0 (No. 25) Weighted Opportunities. A reminder that Weighted Opportunities increases the value of targets, which suits a player like Edmonds.

Even though he finished with 12 (No. 4) Total Touchdowns and 15.4 (No. 12) Fantasy Points per Game, Josh Jacobs relied on opportunities in 2020. He lacked efficiency with a -13.6 (No. 61) Production Premium and averaged 4.3 (No. 53) Yards Per Touch, but had a 27.5-percent (No. 12) Juke Rate. High volume and more opportunities can lead to more Evaded Tackles and Yards Created while helping bolster the Juke Rate. 

Looking ahead to 2021, there are players for whom a larger workload could make them bargains in redraft given their abilities to create their own yards. They figure prominently in the Yards Created per Touch standings. Current signs point to them having more touches in the new season. Notable players like J.K. Dobbins, whose 2.18 (No. 3 among qualified running backs) Yards Created per Touch trailed only Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb.

Kenyan Drake eked his way to the RB24 in Fantasy Points per Game last season, thanks largely to his workload. He logged 192.1 (No. 15) Weighted Opportunities, but averaged 0.66 (No. 55) Yards Created per Touch. This is the eighth-lowest of the 51 running backs to earn at least 100.0 Weighted Opportunities. He is unlikely to command quite as big a workload on the Las Vegas Raiders, barring an injury to Josh Jacobs.

Quietly averaging 13.2 (No. 22 among qualified running backs) Fantasy Points per Game last season on a Broncos team averaging 27.6 (No. 13) Team Run Plays per Game, while splitting touches roughly 16-11 with Philip Lindsay, Gordon is primed to be a high-floor, high-ceiling fantasy asset. High floor because of the proven capability to produce on a capped workload, high ceiling because of the direct path to a three-down role in Lindsay’s absence.

A former first-round pick, Nelson Agholor will unlock a consistent Deep Ball threat for the New England offense. He totaled a 15.1 (No. 5) Average Target Distance mark, 22 (No. 12) Deep Targets, and 1,273 (No. 17) Air Yards with the Raiders last season. Pairing Agholor with Cam Newton’s 53.8-percent (No. 4) Deep Ball Completion Percentage is a match made in heaven, and prevents defenses from stacking the box and playing shallow against the Patriots offense. He is a sturdy draft target as a WR4.

Though he only managed a 30.9-percent (No. 86 among qualified tight ends) Snap Share last season, Anthony Firkser did flash potential in Week 6, exploding for a receiving line of 8-113-1 against the Texans. This was a performance that earned him the TE1 crown on the week. Firkser gains 7.90 Lifetime Value points, moving up to TE27. Go check the waiver wire for him if in need of help at tight end.

Deshaun Watson has been a consistent fantasy producer. He finished 2020 averaging 23.3 (No. 5) Fantasy Points per Game, and averaged 21.2 (No. 2) FFPG in 2019. Fantasy gamers were hoping for a change of scenery this offseason, not a scandal. Rostering or acquiring him in fantasy football now comes with risk. The former Heisman Trophy nominee loses 17.54 Lifetime Value points, putting him on the verge of falling out of the top 10 QBs in dynasty.

JuJu Smith-Schuster re-signing hurts Chase Claypool most. Brandin Cooks to the Moon.

David Moore stays the most underrated WR3 in the NFL. Trevor Lawrence Weapon Party

In redraft, it’s best to avoid both Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. However, if managers are playing best ball fantasy football in 2021, then stacking Henry and Smith will be advantageous. The Patriots invested heavily in the tight end duo while opting against signing a Kenny Golladay, Will Fuller, or other top-tier wide receiver option. Expectations are that the passing offense will go through Henry and Smith, with weekly roles determined by the defenses they face.

A mistake that people make in trading for players is that they acquire players on past performances instead of future projections. As a passer, Cam Newton was putrid last season. Thank goodness his Supporting Cast Efficiency will be better in 2021 than the -3.97 (No. 22) mark it received in 2020. He is the perfect quarterback for championship contenders to target in a trade if they have uncertainty at the position.

Denzel Mims has great metrics: a 115.6 (96th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Speed Score, 42.3-percent (85th-percentile) College Dominator Rating, 131.0 (90th-percentile) Burst Score and 10.34 (95th-percentile) Catch Radius. New OC Mike Lafleur’s West Coast offense should feature Mims and Corey Davis on the outside with Jamison Crowder or Keelan Cole in the slot. Mims earned five targets and 40 yards per game as a rookie, and is in the sweet spot for year 2 breakouts.

The “third year breakout” is looking more and more like a myth every year. It’s not impossible to find one. It’s just a long shot. To improve your odds, use the Dynasty Deluxe rankings and take a couple flyers – especially those that have missed time early but have tremendous profiles. Churn them though if they don’t flash right away. No need to keep pyrite on the roster. Guys with high-quality profiles that fit this description include Deebo Samuel and Parris Campbell.

Aaron Jones has had back-to-back seasons finishing in the top-10 among qualified running backs in Weighted Opportunities, allowing him to finish as RB4 and RB3 in Fantasy Points per Game in 2020 and 2019, respectively. A.J. Dillon and his 5.9-percent (33rd-percentile) College Target Share is incapable of replacing Jamaal Williams’ role in the passing game. Jones’ 242 (No. 17) Routes Run are destined to increase and will offset any carries lost to Dillon in 2021.

The sell-high window on Dillon did close when Jones resigned, but now the buy-low window on Dillon has opened. Jones, 27 years old in December, is unlikely to play out his contract which goes into his age-30 season, and would see his 2023 cap hit balloon up to $19.25 million. Find the panicked owners in leagues that are impatient and acquire Dillon at a bargain price.

Elijah Mitchell’s production is fine on the surface, but nothing exceptional for a small-school prospect when looking at the stats. Elite production is a staple for small school players since they play weaker competition. However, Mitchell battled and out-produced three other NFL-caliber players in college. This proves his talent. Also, his production could have been among the best in the nation if not for sharing a field with them, which is why context is so important when evaluating rookies.

Although Mitchell didn’t excel at any trait, it’s essential that he is well-rounded being that he’s a late-round, small school player. This is why his athletic testing could make him the biggest value pick in the class. If he can run fast with the size, production, and receiving ability, he becomes a late-round rookie pick who has NFL workhorse potential. It’s rare to find players with a complete profile like this in the third round or later in rookie drafts.

Real concerns about J.K. Dobbins projection. Joe Mixon is a screaming value.

Anthony McFarland is extremely underrated right now. How much of a longshot is Dwayne Haskins?