On a live edition of the Sonic Truth Dynasty Podcast, The Podfather Matt Kelley (@Fantasy_Mansion) and Nate Liss (@AnOutragedJew) break down a recent fantasy football dynasty league rookie mock draft vs. RosterWatch.
Adam Thielen earned 108 (No. 27 among qualified wide receivers) Targets and a 24.4-percent (No. 16) Target Share, with 1,291 (No. 21) Air Yards and a 35.3-percent (No. 11) Air Yards Share. Not bad right? Well, he barely ranked inside the top-24 with 74 (No. 23) Receptions and 925 (No. 24) Receiving Yards. His 18.2-percent (No. 4) Touchdown Rate is likely unsustainable year-over-year, and gives us an opportunity to place him on the trade block.
The Panthers used Robby Anderson in more of a possession-type role, evidenced by his 7.9 (No. 62) Yards Per Target and 9.6 (No. 64) Average Target Distance marks. Due to the lack of touchdowns, he only finished with a 13.8 (No. 30) Fantasy Points per Game despite hauling in 95 (No. 8) Receptions for 1,088 (No. 13) Receiving Yards. Regardless, his dynasty stock increased from 2019 to 2020 given his career-best season across the board.
Bryan Edwards and Denzel Mims are alphas in waiting, sorry Henry Ruggs. Jalen Hurts is like a more accurate Josh Allen.
Jalen Reagor would be helped by Ja’Marr Chase like Jerry Jeudy will be helped by Courtland Sutton. Trevor Lawrence is the 1.01 in superflex and 2-QB but you don’t actually want to use that pick.
Rashod Bateman is an excellent wide receiver prospect and a consensus first-round NFL and dynasty draft pick. His advanced stats and metrics are great, but does his college career suggest a WR1, a true Batman, to target in first rounds of dynasty drafts? Or does it describe a Robin, a higher-floor, lower-ceiling WR2 and lesser dynasty value?
Bateman becoming a top NFL wide receiver would belie his college performance and would be an outlier. His college performance suggests a solid NFL player, a WR2 or WR3 on a fantasy team, but not what we should be looking for in a first-round rookie pick.
Time to pivot away from Mike Evans in dynasty. The Kyle Pitts ADP needs a reality check.
Rondale Moore is about to melt faces at his regional pro day. Big expectations for Jalen Hurts this season.
Teams should not overpay for running backs in free agency, but they will. The only real candidate to earn a bumper payday this year is Aaron Jones. You can’t say that he has not been productive or efficient during his time with the Green Bay Packers. Since 2017, despite seeing the 18th-most Carries among all running backs (649), Jones has racked up 3,459 Rushing Yards, good for eight-most.
The splits between JuJu Smith-Schuster’s first two NFL seasons and his last two are quite dramatic. He settled back into his slot specialist role in 2020, leading all wide receivers with an 82.2-percent Slot Rate. Smith-Schuster finished the season with 97 (No. 7) Receptions on his 128 (No. 15) Targets, with a 95.1-percent (No. 6) True Catch Rate. He also scored nine (No. 9) Touchdowns. But he averaged a dismal 8.6 (No. 104) Yards per Reception and a dreary 6.5 (No. 96) Yards per Target.
With Zach Ertz likely out in Philadelphia and Jalen Hurts taking over the reigns at QB, Dallas Goedert has an appealing ceiling. Last season, he posted a +9.1 (No. 6 among qualified tight ends) Production Premium and a +14.7-percent (No. 6) Target Premium. This is a highly efficient player on a team with an abundance of vacated targets and a potential upgrade at quarterback. He’s the perfect type of tight end to target in the middle rounds.
A great example of a player that needs to be targeted in upcoming startup drafts is Rams running back Cam Akers. The Rams showed late last season that they are ready to let the second-rounder roll. With Malcolm Brown likely gone, Akers has only Darrell Henderson to compete with. Add in an upgrade at quarterback, and the second-year back is primed for a big 2021. Oh yeah, he’ll be a youthful 22 years old when the season begins.
Amari Rodgers is the next slot monster in the NFL. Shi Smith is underrated. Najee Harris is an undoubtable bell cow.
Larry Rountree deserves more buzz.
Carson Wentz is a value in dynasty leagues because the perception of him is that he’s damaged goods. Those who have him in dynasty should hold. His value is the lowest it’s been in his career. He has one year in a better situation to turn his NFL career around. If struggles in 2021, it doesn’t change the value that cratered in 2020. But if he puts up a solid campaign in his age-29 season, then he regains significant trade value.
Don’t worry about a drop-off in Miles Sanders’ receiving volume; his 4.33 targets per game were identical in games that Carson Wentz and Jalen Hurts started. After a disappointing 2020 season, he’s set to be a high-volume running back with better rushing opportunities provided by his run-threat quarterback, while still being involved in the passing game.
Why James Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins should made available for trade. Buying low on Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jerry Jeudy, and Denzel Mims.
A.J. Dillon has asymmetrical upside. Planting a flag on Jermar Jefferson.
