Hello to those fortunate enough to survive the first round. Can we interest you in a second helping? Yep, another week of hair-on-fire decision making and waiver wire hunting. So, grab your rabbits foot, or that lucky old t-shirt and saddle up. Oh, and get your fix of The Infirmary and it’s knowledge before heading into battle this Sunday. It will be well needed.
A fourth round selection in the 2021 NFL Draft (No. 112 overall), Amon-Ra St. Brown is hitting his stride of late. The 22-year-old, has seen 35 targets in the last three games – a team-leading 34.3-percent Target Share over this span. He finished last week with 23.5 fantasy points (WR6); a mark reached twice in the last three games. Trending up, St. Brown accrues 14.57 Lifetime Value points and jumps 10 spots to WR44 in the dynasty rankings.
Darnell Mooney finds himself in the midst of a late-season slump. He is still earning a healthy 24.9-percent (No. 16 among qualified wide receivers) Target Share, but he is delivering WR2/3-level production averaging 11.7 fantasy points (WR33) this season. Better days are ahead for the talented speedster out of Tulane, but for now he loses seven spots and 15.06 Lifetime Value points to fall to WR43.
Ladies and gentleman, through 15 weeks of the NFL season I present to you your Air Yards leader, Justin Jefferson. He also leads the league in Air Yards Share as he has been THE Vikings passing game sans Adam Thielen. He is also only 79 Unrealized Air Yards away from leading the league in this category. Jefferson is an elite triple crown contender in all things Air Yards. Even with Thielen looking like he will return this week, the Jefferson airplane is already at Mach 5 and gaining speed.
Emmanuel Sanders appears to be the last man standing after both Cole Beasley and the intriguing Gabriel Davis were ruled out of this week’s game against the Patriots with COVID-19. Assuming Sanders is back at full health, he should have no issue seeing boom-or-bust downfield targets from Josh Allen. He should be someone you want exposure to in tournaments.
Two weeks of rest (a missed week due to injury and a bye week) seemed to be all that was needed for Jalen Hurts to return from an ankle sprain unscathed. With more opportunities on offense and another week removed from injury, he should be deployed even more as a rusher. Despite ranking dead last in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks, the Giants have also had trouble on the ground. Hurts’ 2.3 Red Zone Carries Per Game has led to his league leading 10 Rushing Touchdowns. Giddyup!
Dallas Goedert provides a nice value/ceiling combo at $5,100. The versatile tight end has eclipsed 100 receiving yards in back to back games for the Eagles. In Weeks 13 and 15, Goedert saw Target Shares of 27-percent and 35-percent (Week 14 was a bye). While you can run Hurts naked (without a pairing), Goedert looks to be the preferred stacking option with Hurts.
Cleveland has no choice but to ride Nick Chubb down the stretch if they want to save their season. With all that ails their passing attack, Chubb is who the offense is built around and needs to be emphasized during the next three weeks. Even though his receiving work lags behind, he’s a lock for a heavy workload and gets the No. 25-ranked run defense according to Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA metric. He is a locked and loaded RB1 this week.
What more is there to say about Davante Adams? His dominance is so overwhelming that the Baltimore Ravens and their depleted secondary resorted to having *two* defensive backs line up against him before the snap. He will likely see plenty of action against Cleveland’s Denzel Ward, who is PlayerProfiler’s No. 3-ranked cornerback. But as he’s proven time and time again, he is matchup-proof and will produce for fantasy gamers no matter the circumstance. Like Thanos, Adams is inevitable.
A savvy way to attack this slate for daily fantasy football tournaments is stacking Joe Burrow with Ja’Marr Chase against the burnable Ravens secondary. With recent inconsistencies and big days from his teammates, Chase should go underplayed this week which presents an appealing leverage opportunity for DFS tournaments. Another tactic involves playing the less popular side of the biggest shooutout. This week that’s Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson who is simply seeing too much volume to be worried about CB matchups.
The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!
Similar to last week, this is a tough week to find good reliable values in the index. Najee Harris is a good tournament play, Josh Jacobs is one of the better overall plays too. In cash games, many are going to look for the fill-ins for inactive running backs such as Alexander Mattison, Ronald Jones, and Justin Jackson as well..
Drafting Kyle Pitts as the highest-selected tight end ever was too risky. How the Falcons could have traded Matt Ryan in the summer of 2021.
Lessons learned from the Tyler Boyd contract. Where should Michael Gallup go in free agency?
The San Francisco 49ers are rolling and looking to ride into the playoffs on a high note. Jimmy G has been playing solid football, leading George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel to fantasy success. Jeff Wilson showed he’s more than capable of filling in for Elijah Mitchell. They come into the day obvious favorites against the struggling Titans.
The Titans are depleted and falling apart. The team has been ravaged by injuries, forcing D’Onta Foreman and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine to take on significant roles. A.J. Brown and Julio Jones both look to return tonight, but their upside is limited with how badly Ryan Tannehill has been playing. The Titans find themselves, rightfully, as home dogs in an uphill matchup.
With one of the better fantasy matchups for an RB this week, David Montgomery is set to produce for the fantasy playoffs. Despite looking better recently, the Seahawks rush defense is among the worst in the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs. They allow a lot of catches to RB/FBs, giving up 5 or more receptions to opposing backfields in each of their last eight games (not including Week 15’s Tuesday night game). Montgomery has three straight games with at least five targets and has an excellent opportunity to boom this week.
The Miami running back room looks murky. Myles Gaskin did play last week, but it was… Duke Johnson (!) who got the most touches out of the Dolphin RBs. Gaskin has been the lead back for the majority of the season and was coming off a COVID absence last week. However, the insertion of Johnson and a tough opponent in the Saints cloud Gaskins’ usage. Both player’s usages look clouded as of now, and they face a tough matchup for this week of the fantasy playoffs.
