With the playoffs now in store, you will see a much briefer form of this column. In this version of the column, we will only use our streaming selections to help you lift that trophy. However, if you preferred the introspective, long-form version, not to worry. At the conclusion of the Regular Season, I will be back to offer a review of the best and worst takes from the column and lessons learned moving forward.
The teams you play every week now will have stronger rosters. The decisions you make are more important in a single-elimination format. Every point counts. Your bench is also less important. If you are rostering a player you would never start, like a Mack Hollins type, you are better off cutting them for a defense with a strong weekly matchup or even a handcuff RB, preferably behind a banged-up starter. We also want to roster our own handcuff RB whenever possible. We only want to roster one defense during the season, but it is perfectly acceptable to roster multiple defenses during the playoffs.
This is the Infirmary Report: Post Week 14! The worst part of our beloved game is the frequency of injuries. It’s an unfortunate byproduct of such a fast-paced, contact-heavy sport. It’s something that is important to remember as we approach the first full week of the preseason. Luckily for the NFL players, they have access to some of the best doctors in the world and can usually return to form at least by the next season. Unfortunately for us fantasy players, it’s not always easy to know when a player will get hurt. To another degree, sometimes your roster isn’t big enough to plan ahead for an injury. This series, the Infirmary Report, will give you advice on the injuries that have happened every week during the season. Without further ado, here is the Infirmary Report: Post Week 14 of regular season action.
With Damien Harris doubtful (thigh) to play, Rhamondre Stevenson looks like a smash. In the three games without Harris, Stevenson has averaged a sizable 85-percent Snap Share. He converted those opportunities into RB2, RB9 and RB18 finishes. His season-long 23.5-percent Target Share (team-high) is second only to Christian McCaffery amongst qualified running backs. I like Stevenson as a top-10 play against a Cardinals defense that has been sliced up by pass-catching backs (No. 8 most passing yards to running backs).
James Conner’s 97-percent Snap Share was unmatched in Week 12 at his position. He was able to turn the workhorse opportunity into a massive 25/120/2 statline. Conner has been solid lately, turning in two top three RB finishes in his last three weeks of action. While the matchup with New England is challenging (No. 2 in fantasy points allowed to RB), Conner remains a volume-secure RB2.
Osborn himself has had a great fantasy day against the Lions. He has played at least 60-percent of the Vikings snaps in all but one game this season. Osborn should be on the field often in one of the highest-scoring games of the week. I love him as a DFS shot and think he’s a solid flex play in season-long leagues if you need to play him.
This season, only nine teams have allowed more tight-end receptions than the Detroit Lions. Now entering an offensive game script with a 51.5-point Vegas total (the highest on the Sunday afternoon slate) and a revenge narrative against the team that just traded him, it’s no surprise that T.J. Hockenson’s over 4.5 receptions prop is juiced to -130 on sportsbooks.
It’s concerning that in his last three games that Mike Evans hasn’t topped 11 fantasy points despite facing young cornerbacks that rank outside the top-50 in the Cornerback Rankings. Evans has faced two top-10 cornerbacks this season, resulting in two of his three worst performances on the season.
Truth be told, there were no real dramatic shifts in pace this past week. We seem to have reached a point of the season where teams seem to know who they are. The New York Jets jumped from No. 8 a week ago up to No. 4 after playing catchup for the bulk of their loss to the Vikings. But this Jets team tends towards playing fast, so this is not an earth-shattering development. They haven’t ranked lower than No. 8 all season long. What is noticeable is that over their last two games they’ve averaged 2.47 points per drive. In the ten games prior, this mark was just 1.74. I don’t think you’re coming back anytime soon, Zach Wilson.
It’s time Derek Carr gets his flowers. Behind the disaster that is the Raiders, he is averaging 19.27 (No. 11) fantasy points per game and has thrown at least two touchdown passes in every game since week 9. What he lacks in efficiency, he makes up for with his aggression. He’s airing it out with 9.1 (No. 5) Air Yards per Attempt. With 30 (No. 3) Money Throws, we’re even seeing a clutch gene from Carr. He’s been automatic since week 9 and is a top-12 option against a Rams defense that has given up nearly 20 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks over the last four weeks.
Amari Cooper disappointed last week despite the highly anticipated return of Deshaun Watson. He posted only eight fantasy points on nine targets. However he led the Browns with 96 Air Yards. He is clearly Watson’s primary pass catcher in this offense. Look for Amari to bounce back this week against the Bengals. He can be rostered confidently in all formats.
D.J. Moore returns from bye as the Air Yards value play of the week! Perhaps the fourth time is a charm as Moore scored a season high 20.3 with the Panthers utilizing, Sam Darnold, their fourth quarterback this season. Since the trade of Christian McCaffrey, Moore is the focal point of the Panthers offense and sports a league leading 44.6-percent Air Yards share. Play him in all lineups this week.
