PlayerProfiler is home to award-winning dynasty rankings and tools. Our Dynasty Deluxe package includes complete Dynasty Rankings, Rookie Rankings, Trade Analyzer, Draft Planner, Mock Drafts, and more. Check it out! Below, Dave Leonard discusses the advantage savvy fantasy managers can gain by Navigating the ADP Landscape
Average draft position (ADP) is one of the most discussed terms in regards to fantasy football and best ball in particular. ADP is essentially the market telling us how players are being valued, and we should respect the market because it gets smarter and sharper every year.
Throughout the draft, ADP becomes less indicative of future success, though, and eventually it’s not telling at all. Properly attacking different parts of the draft in regards to how we view ADP in connection with our roster construction, stacking, and player takes can help us build stronger, well-correlated teams while still taking advantage of times players fall past their ADP.
Early Rounds
ADP is sharpest in the earliest portion of the draft, the first six rounds (picks 1-72), when the market has the best feel for a player’s future success. Knowing that, we shouldn’t enter a draft with a particular strategy in mind, zero running back, robust running back, etc.
It’s more beneficial to allow the draft to come to us and take what our draft room gives us. Now, this is only to a certain extent; we need to use some common sense, there’s no need to take four quarterbacks in the first six rounds just because they were the best values at those selections.
However, using smart decision making, PlayerProfiler rankings, and ADP tracker, we can take the best values and allow our draft room to dictate what our strategy will be. These pieces will be the foundation the rest of your roster is built.
| Draft Round | ADP Importance | Strategy Focus |
|---|---|---|
| 1–3 | 🟥 Very High | Anchor players, elite upside/floor |
| 4–6 | 🟧 High | Round-based value, positional tiers |
| 7–9 | 🟨 Medium | Breakouts, ADP still informative |
| 10–14 | 🟩 Low | Upside > value, team fit/correlation |
| 15–18 | 🟦 Very Low | Unique builds, stacks, and player traits |
Middle Rounds
The middle portion of the draft, rounds seven through twelve (73-144), ADP is still relevant, but its value begins to decline and increasingly drops with each round. Upside becomes more important during this section of the draft, finding breakouts is more important than a little ADP value here.
The further along in the draft we get volatility increases, and player outlooks become less clear. As we navigate through these rounds, “reaches” become less risky, and we can begin to focus on other aspects of our roster, such as stacking, championship, and playoff week correlation and position allocation.
| Position | Approx. Hit Rate | Source & Definition |
|---|---|---|
| QB | ~53% finishing at QB2 level (~usable starter) | FantasyPros late-round data (FantasyPros) |
| RB | ~18% finishing top-Corp or RB3-tier | FantasyPros Best Ball sample (FantasyPros) |
| WR | ~10% delivering WR3-level contributions | FantasyPros sample-based data (FantasyPros) |
| Rookie (All) | ~49–50% if picked late | Fantasy Labs / FFTradingRoom data (Fantasy Trading Room) |
| Late-round long shot (ADP ≥140) | ~20% make it to the championship rate | LegendaryUpside sample breakdowns (Legendary Upside) |
Late Rounds
ADP ceases to matter after Round 12. At this portion of the draft, we should be going and getting the players we want to take stands on.
Target high upside players that fill positional needs and complete team and game stacks. This is where analysis from PlayerProfiler on deep sleepers and breakouts will be very valuable. We don’t want to be locked on ADP anymore; we want to focus on our own research and go get our guys that we believe will be league winners.
Give ADP and the market the respect it deserves, up until it doesn’t anymore. If everyone drafted only by ADP, we’d all end up with the same teams. Trust yourself and PlayerProfiler to set you apart from your opponents.
| Position | Avg “Usable Weeks” (Round 15+) | Approx. Chance to Start Once |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterbacks | ~8.3 weeks | ~50% |
| Running Backs | ~3.1 weeks | ~20% |
| Wide Receivers | ~1.9 weeks | ~12% |
| Tight Ends | ~5.3 weeks | ~33% |
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David Leonard is a fantasy football contributor for PlayerProfiler. Find him on X at @RealDelcoDave
