Contrived Contrarian GPP DFS Plays of Week 5

by The Podfather ·

Here are three contrarian Week 5 plays for guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests on DraftKings and FanDuel this week.

Paxton Lynch, QB, Denver Broncos

After Trevor Siemian posted a 4-touchdown game in week 4 reminding the fantasy community that Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders make up one the most explosive wide receivers duos in the NFL.  Replacing the slender, athletically limited Siemian, is the anti-Trevor Siemian: Paxton Lynch.

Paxton Lynch is a big-armed downfield thrower, evidenced by a 59-mph (90th-percentile) throw velocity on  Beyond his big hands (10.25-inches) and big arm, Lynch is an athletic runner.  As a sophomore at Memphis, Lynch ran for 321-yards and a baffling 13 rushing touchdowns.

The Broncos will likely deploy Lynch this season as the 2004 Steelers deployed then-rookie QB Ben Roethlisberger.

Paxton Lynch is the perfect GPP play against a Falcons defense allowing the most fantasy points to quarterbacks in 2016, though game flow partially explains the Falcons’ extreme fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks.  Regardless, the Broncos are favored to win the game, and Lynch will be responsible for scoring points both passing and rushing in week 5.  Paxton Lynch is the best-value, low ownership, high upside GPP play of week and shows up often in PlayerProfiler’s GPP Lineup Optimizer Tool.

Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons

I get it.  Denver has the best defense in the NFL.  I get it.  The Falcons are +4.0 underdogs facing the Broncos on the road, but this “bad match-up” for Devonta Freeman on paper may not be so bad in reality.  Denver is actually allowing bigger plays on the ground than through the air.  Two weeks ago, a plotting Jeremy Hill gashed Denver’s front line posting 97-yards and two touchdowns.

As a road dog, Atlanta projects to be passing frequently in the second half, and Freeman is one of the most efficient pass catching running backs in the NFL evidenced by a catch rate exceeding 75.0-percent since becoming Atlanta’s starting running back in week 2 of 2015.

Furthermore, for player safety reasons, he Falcons will likely reduce the snaps of Devonta Freeman‘s backfield mate, Tevin Coleman, who is afflicted with a sickle cell trait that almost killed former Steelers defensive back Ryan Clark in 2005.

Devonta Freeman is projected to exceed 15 PPR fantasy points on the PlayerProfiler Week 5 Player Rankings.  Freeman is the low ownership, high upside contrarian RB play of week 5.

Cameron Meredith, WR, Chicago Bears

Whether Eddie Royals is active or inactive, Cameron Meredith is an unknown, deep, deep, deep, deep sleeper with the minimum salary and a tournament-winning best-case scenario fantasy point total in his range of outcomes.  The opportunity to roster an under-the-radar player with Meredith’s profile and Meredith’s situation in week 5 comes along only a handful of times per season.

With Alshon Jeffery shadowed by Vontae Davis who has allowed a mere two receptions on four targets thus far, voluminous targets will funnel out to Meredith and his 95th-percentile Catch Radius in the absence of Kevin White.  Stacking Hoyer-Meredith in GPPs allows DFS grinders to roster three high-salary elite wide receivers on DraftKings in week 5.