Draft Zach Ertz in Fantasy Football (and never stop)

by Peter Davidson ·

Philadelphia’s Zach Ertz is my most-owned tight end in MFL10s this season.  I am taking him between rounds 7 through 9 and am not going to stop targeting him as long as his price tag stays constant.  As the eighth tight end off the board, Ertz provides the ideal combination of value and elite upside.  Elite, like 2015 Jordan Reed-level elite.

Why Zach Ertz?  Why now?

Zach Ertz was one of the most heavily targeted tight ends in the second of last season, and was the most heavily targeted tight end in the NFL in December more than 11-targets per game over his last four games.  The Eagles did not add a passing game weapon of consequence this offseason (sorry Rueben Randle truthers).  Apart from perhaps Jordan Matthews, there is no alpha target in the Eagles’ passing game.  Given this usage upswing, Zach Ertz‘s 97.0 ADP on MyFantasyLeague.com is stunning.

The Eagles made a significant financial commitment to Zach Ertz: six years $43 million dollars, including $20 million guaranteed and it was done with the new coaching staff’s blessing.  Philadelphia’s front office noticed something more fantasy football enthusiasts missed: Ertz’s catch totals have risen each year of his career — reaching 75-receptions in 2015.


Zach Ertz Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Perhaps fantasy gamers were butt-ertz after he underwhelmed through 13 weeks only to average greater than 21-fantasy points per game during the final four games of last season (the fantasy playoffs), leaving his embittered fantasy owners muttering quietly to themselves.  Even if most fantasy football enthusiasts are rational, something about Zach Ertz‘s redraft ADP smells funky.  As long as this market inefficiency exists, we must continue to exploit it.

The only thing less rational than Zach Ertz redraft ADP is his dynasty ADP.  Languishing on an inefficient offense, Ertz situation may be sub-optional now, but Philadelphia has invested heavily in the quarterback position.  Even if you are not that impressed with the names on the depth chart, smart football people did compare Carson Wentz to Andrew Luck with a straight face.  Furthermore, Chase Daniel may not set fantasy hearts aflutter, but he knows the offensive system and would be able to come in and feed the receivers, if the Eagles need him.

In the process of building the deepest QB depth chart in the league, the Eagles also traded away a lot of future draft choices.  The odds of Philadelphia being able to import a lot of new skill talent over the next few years is slim.  Players like Zach Ertz and Jordan Matthews are in good position to hold onto big roles for an extended period.

The time is ripe to corner the market on Zach Ertz across all fantasy football formats.  I suggest you get bullish, too.