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Arian Foster: Fantasy Football’s Best Value Running Back

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Meet Arian Foster.

Fantasy Football Stud

Prior to Foster’s derailed 2015 campaign, the perennial top-5 fantasy RB posted 21.3 fantasy points per game in 2014, a number that would have led all fantasy football running backs in 2015.  Indeed, Foster has been a elite fantasy producer year after year, even when his supporting cast betrays him, because he wins in all phases: between the tackles, outside the tackles, and in the passing game.  Unlike more volume-dependent workhorses from Adrian Peterson to Doug Martin, Foster is efficient despite a huge touch volume — an impressive achievement.  In 2014, Foster posted a +7.1 (No. 23) Production Premium supported by 4.8 Yards Per Carry and 5.3 Yards Per Touch.

Even more impressive, Arian Foster wins with nuance and instincts more than raw athleticism evidenced by his 4.74 (10th-percentile) 40-yard dash time and 111.9 (13th-percentile) Burst Score.  If any running back is equipped with the physical traits and instincts to succeed on the football field in the wake of an Achilles’ tendon injury that is sure to diminish his lower body power and flexibility, it would be Arian Foster.

Yet, Arian Foster is currently an afterthought in early fantasy football drafts.  Not for long.  His current 125.3 MyFantasyLeague ADP is destined to rise as multiple positive trigger events appear on the horizon.  Foster is currently fantasy football’s best value running back.  Buy him while you still can.

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Arian Foster Advanced Metrics Profile

Trigger Events

Here are some of the possible trigger events for Arian Foster in the weeks ahead:

1. Arian Foster will claim to be at full health – his value will spike.

2. He’ll get signed to a team in need of RBs – his value with spike again.

3. Foster will get 1st team reps – his value will spike again.

4. Beat writers will enthusiastically tweet raving reviews of how smooth, impressive and how sexy Foster looks in training camp. What happens next? Yep, you guessed it – his value will spike again.

You’ve probably started to hear or at least feel the buzz surrounding Arian Foster’s return over the past few weeks. If you want to garner a trade chip and/or key to winning your league’s fantasy football championship, I highly suggest investing in the four-time Pro Bowl Running Back.

About a month ago, Arian Foster said he was about a month away from being back to full strength after tearing his Achilles last year.  Now, he’s sending out signals that he’s ready to find a new team.  According to Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com, a source close to the former Texans running back said he’d be healthy for training camp and is “hungry” to regain his previous form.

When healthy, Arian Foster has a career average of 4.5 rushing yards per attempt, and 9.1 receiving yards per reception.  Since 2010, Foster finished as RB1, RB4, RB3, RB44, RB5, RB66.  To put that into perspective, when playing 80-percent of more of his team’s regular season games, Foster has finished as the RB1, RB4, RB3, and RB5.  That is consistency.

Real Concerns

I get it.  Arian Foster has had A LOT of injuries in his NFL career. But you can’t deny that he is one of the most productive RBs we’ve had the pleasure to watch over the past seven seasons.

Ideal Landing Spots

Miami.  Sorry #TeamAjayi.  If Arian Foster goes the Dolphins, expect him to get the majority of the RB touches.

Washington.  See Miami, sorry #TeamMattJones.

New England.  The Patriots are one of the best bets to make it back to the Super Bowl, and I can’t imagine Foster turning down the best chance to finally compete for an NFL championship. 

Conclusion

Arian Foster, known on Twitter as “@Feeno” is one of the best value running backs in fantasy football – being drafted as the No. 50 RB off the board.  I expect Foster, one of the premiere football players of this decade, to return from injury and vastly outperform his fantasy football draft position.