Christopher Buonagura

The AFC East has quite a few promising teams looking up at the division-winning Buffalo Bills as the offseason kicks off. Which team has the best chance of challenging for the division in 2023? What is each team's cap situation? How many draft picks do they have compared to other teams in the NFL? And most importantly, how does this affect player values in fantasy football?

The Jets' offense is the most improved unit in the NFL. They filled key needs for Robert Saleh's zone-run style offense. The receiving corps, tight end room, and offensive line consistent of multiple talented players. Wilson showed incredible arm talent during his few stretches of solid play during his rookie year. The Success of this team is directly correlated with Wilson's ability to learn the game and speed up his processing post-snap.

Every NFL season, millions of fantasy football players around the globe lose leagues as their "stud" early round selections fall flat on their backs. The phrase "forgive and forget" is widely under-appreciated by the fantasy community. With special thanks to the advanced stats and metrics available on PlayerProfiler (and a bit of logic), we among the underworld strive to overcome our biases and find 2022 quarterback bust bounceback candidates among the sea of disappointment. Late round quarterback has always been a viable fantasy football strategy and continues into 2022. Having a young stud is always nice, but there are plenty of available starters that will absolutely be on championship rosters. Russell Wilson is the least expensive QB1 this offseason. Other players like Matt Ryan and Jimmy Garoppolo present a strong case as value selections in fantasy drafts.

Carson Wentz' injury provides the perfect excuse for the Colts to toss the 2021 season, maintain the roster, and look forward to 2022. Jacob Eason is projected to begin the season as the starting quarterback, and Wentz' chance of having an efficient 2021 plummets. Even when he returns, there's a strong chance his foot injury affects his footwork and mechanics. This is a serious problem when banking on a strong bounceback to his once-MVP form. This season is lost for Colts, and fantasy expectations should be throttled across the board. T.Y. Hilton's ADP will freefall due to his age, but he still offers a decent fantasy floor. He can be a "safe" late teens pick in Best Ball. For redraft leagues, his lack of upside makes him a soft Flex option. The chance of a Michael Pittman breakout puts his workload at risk, and poor offensive efficiency lowers his touchdown upside. Hilton should be valued as a fringe WR6 with many reasons to see a decline. Don't bet on a full on breakout for Pittman this year, but expect him to eat into Hilton's workload.

Adam Gase was a poor head coach. He has a proven record of misusing and suppressing fantasy football production for running backs and wide receivers. His shortcomings further express themselves behind the scenes with poor player management. The "Gase Effect" certainly matters when considering actual NFL outcomes. However, there is no reason to believe a player can break out solely because Gase is no longer their coach. The New York Jets have been historically bad for decades. Adam Gase was unfortunate enough to enter the fray at organizational rock bottom. Gase entered the Big Apple at the tail end of the Mike Maccagnan era. Maccagnan proved to be an all-time dud at general manager, resulting in college level rosters for Gase in 2019 and 2020. The Jets allowed their bust GM to run the entire 2019 offseason before firing him and bringing in Joe Douglas. Gase was left to carry the bag for a roster devoid of talent.

Looking back to 2020, both running back and wide receiver proved to return subpar value in the deep rounds. Running backs drafted after the 12th round finished as an RB1 only 4.95-percent of the time. Wide receivers drafted in the same range were only a WR1 3.39-percent of the time. The fall off is drastic compared to quarterback (17.09-percent) and tight end (12.66-percent). This suggests that QB and TE are actually deep and that WR/RB are the shallow positions in drafts. On Underdog Fantasy, there are about 15 tight ends currently being drafted in the top 12 rounds. It is reasonable to expect about half of them to bust in 2021. A conservative projection would suggest that there are at least five available after Round 12 that can score at least 100 points. With the overall poor quality of the tight end position, it is reasonable to push off chasing TE depth until the later rounds in Best Ball.

The Browns are for real and have been since acquiring a real coach with Kevin Stefanski. This roster is iron-clad after improvements to the defense this offseason. If this team remains healthy, a Super Bowl is in the range of outcomes. The only risk is that Baker Mayfield's play may fall off if the team around him starts to crumble. They enter the year as favorites to win the NFC North. The Jaguars are kings of the bad teams. A fitting title for a routinely dysfunctional group. Trevor Lawrence is a can't miss QB prospect and deserves to be treated as such. He alone can elevate this team to the 5-7 win mark. Temper expectations in a year following massive turnover at every organizational level and just enjoy the ride.

The Saints face massive losses across the board heading into the 2021 NFL season. Starters at every major position group and coaches at multiple levels are gone. The retirement of franchise quarterback Drew Brees all but guarantees a significant decrease in total wins. Brees' retirement is an overall positive for the organization long-term because he physically lost the ability to win in the post-season. The Carolina Panthers have made minimal improvement to the roster in the offseason. The free agent additions address key weaknesses with players at good value. The team is moving in the right direction, but the players added do not move the needle towards more wins. This offense is loaded with explosive playmakers but lacks a true signal caller. The addition of Sam Darnold is a high risk and low upside approach to the most important position in sports.

The 49ers have strong leaders ship and team building to support a talented roster. This team is expected to be a relevant contributor to the league every season. Our expectations must be realistic dependent on the starting quarterback. The move to trade up for a premium draft pick to select a rookie signals that 2021 is not an all-in year. Jimmy Garoppolo can lead this team to a winning season over 17 games. Despite some turnover, the Rams fall at No. 5 overall in our pre-draft Power Rankings. Sean McVay stirs the pot in the LA, not Brandon Staley, in the same way that Bill Belichick maintains a strong defense in New England despite losing coordinators every year. Second, Stafford's arrival is a bigger boost to the offense than the loss of Staley is a blow to the defense; and offense wins in the modern NFL. I think the Rams surprise this year a with a run at the No. 1 seed in the NFC. 

Football fans can turn on ESPN any day of the year and expect at least one segment highlighting drama around Aaron Rodgers. Despite his polarizing personality, he remains a dominant force of quarterbacking excellence. His presence coupled with an adequate defense and Year 3 of Matt Lafluer’s scheme will assure that Green Bay sits atop the NFC in 2021. The Lions project to be much more fun and upbeat with Dan Campbell, but this team is knee-deep in a complete overhaul. They will struggle to win even a handful of games in 2021. Jared Goff is just a placeholder that was acquired to help justify trading their franchise quarterback. Goff is not the answer, and the remaining roster talent has been stripped down to its foundation. There is hope for Detroit, just not this year.

The Eagles hit the reset button the moment 2020 ended. The coaching staff was stripped down and fully replaced. Most veteran free agents did not get new contracts to stay in town. Most notably, their recently signed franchise quarterback was traded away. Regardless of Jalen Hurts being on the roster, these are the clear signs of a rebuild. The organization seems to be in the right direction, but do not expect more than five wins during the first year of a rebuild.  The Washington Football Team has earned their name this offseason by compiling a true football team. This team has talent at every major position group and the coaching seems to be up to par. Ron Rivera and company are fine after the luckiest 7-9 playoff run in league history. The offense is loaded with weapons for Ryan Fitzpatrick to utilize in his magic performances each Sunday.

The Colts are an upper-tier franchise and annual playoff contender. Chris Ballard built his culture, promotes from within and grows this team through the draft. Boasting a fierce offensive line and well-groomed defense makes this team one quarterback away from a championship. Carson Wentz regaining his MVP-caliber form would be the missing link. On the other hand, his history of cataclysmic failure repeating itself would sink this team to the deepest pits of despair. Few people will argue that the Texans are the league’s worst team heading into 2021 if Deshaun Watson misses games. This team is fresh off of a complete tear down and rebuild. The offseason moves indicate one thing, the goal is not to win games. 2021 is a tryout and culture-building year with over 20 players added during free agency. This was the right move to revamp player morale.

The Kansas City Chiefs remain the league's most difficult team to beat. Their Super Bowl loss and offensive line reshuffle do not change that. They will remain dominant until Patrick Mahomes' annual salary increases 40-plus million per year and limits roster construction. Retaining Eric Bieniemy for another year also helps. No need to overthink it on this one.  The Broncos enter 2021 with a well-built roster. The offense is loaded with weapons and the offensive line play made a leap forward in 2020. Vic Fangio's defense has talented playmakers at all three levels. The return of most significant starters and coaching personnel suggests good year-to-year consistency by this organization. Team and coaching personnel that have years to develop together have an edge on Sundays.

Lamar Jackson and this Ravens offense may be one dimensional, but most teams can not stop them even if they know the gameplan. Jackson's raw talent and playmaking ability is that good. More playmakers at receiver would be nice, and they may draft some. Expect this team to come to play every Sunday and compete directly with the Browns for control of the AFC North.  Joe Burrow's protection will improve with Jonah Williams returning and some new additions along the line, but they didn't add a backup quarterback in case he needs to be eased back. They added Trey Hendrickson and six new defensive backs, but at the cost of Carl Lawson and William Jackson. Cincinnati will be better in the future, but the win total will remain low in 2021 as Burrow recovers.

Many fans will cite Baltimore's regression from 2019 to 2020 as the model for what to expect this year from the Bills. That is a lazy take. Buffalo will continue to succeed because unlike the Ravens, they succeeded through the air with an emphasis on Josh Allen’s arm talent, not his rushing ability. The Bills will be the hardest team to beat on Sundays outside of the league's elite The chance to improve at quarterback with the NFL Draft's No. 2 selection places the Jets firmly on the path to relevancy. The notable difference between 2021’s free agent haul and that of previous failed years is the emphasis on upside. Rather than overspending on overhyped names like Le'Veon Bell, C.J. Mosley, and Trumaine Johnson, the Jets targeted undervalued pros and potential breakout stars.

Ty Johnson is the priority add going into Wild Card week given his expected workhorse role and soft matchup against Seattle. Frank Gore will likely miss Week 14 due to a concussion, paving the way for another 20-plus touch week for Johnson. There is concern that Seattle rebounds this week and blows out the Jets, but regardless of Game Script, Johnson will get plenty of touches due to Adam Gase's archaic play calling. Keke Coutee emerged for a monster performance with 8 catches and 141 yards on 9 targets against the Colts. His increased usage will continue given that he is the secondary option in a high-octane passing game for a Texans offense that continues to project for negative Game Script. A Week 14 matchup against Chicago limits Coutee's touchdown upside, but he still belongs in the Flex spot if you are thin on options.

The will they-won't they relationship between the Rams coaching staff and Cam Akers' starting role has been the talk of the town for weeks. Akers' Week 12 efficiency (9-84-1) dwarfed Darrell Henderson's 19 yards on three carries and Malcolm Brown's 19 scrimmage yards on five total touches. Project forward. Pray that McVay read the box score and plays his young stud as a workhorse in Week 13 against the Cardinals. With high playoff upside, Tim Patrick remains a featured add in this column for two weeks straight. His schedule includes a potential Week 13 shootout with the Chiefs, Carolina's soft secondary in Week 14, and another potential shootout in Week 16 against the Chargers. Patrick is a featured weapon with high upside when Drew Lock returns to the lineup.

Gus Edwards is the next man up for Baltimore going into a Primetime Thanksgiving matchup. Both J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram will sit due to COVID regulations. Edwards has a high chance of being a one week workhorse on the short week with few options behind him and Justice Hill being relegated to special teams. Nelson Agholor is the WR1 for Derek Carr. It feels wrong to say that, but it has become the truth. In his first season with the Raiders, he has scored six total touchdowns and is averaging 19.3 Yards Per Reception. Agholor is the epitome of a boom or bust receiver, but you can toss him in your Flex and pray for the boom if you are desperate.

Salvon Ahmed's 21 carries for 85 yards and a touchdown in Week 10 cannot be ignored in the new look NFL that is devoid of workhorse backs. Ahmed is slotted in as the direct replacement for Myles Gaskin in Miami and is an ideal RB2 to help you with your playoff push, especially with Jordan Howard now out of the picture. Don't overthink it. David Moore is the next man up in Seattle's high-octane offense after Tyler Lockett was declared questionable with a knee sprain. If Lockett is out, get excited for Moore, who has flashed big play potential for years when tethered to Russell Wilson.

DeeJay Dallas was a top 5 running back in Week 8 with the Seattle backfield ravaged by injuries. There is no guarantee that Chris Carson or Carlos Hyde come back this week, and an every-week role is possible for Dallas regardless. Any running back can thrive when playing in the same backfield as Russell Wilson. Kendrick Bourne is one of the few last men standing in San Francisco. Bourne caught eight-of-ten targets in Week 8 for 81 yards following Deebo Samuel and George Kittle injuries. Nick Mullens has shown an ability to generate fantasy-viable wide receivers. It is also possible that this offense struggles to put up points in general. Bourne is a fair consolation prize if you fail to acquire anyone else this week.

When given the opportunity in 2019, Wayne Gallman did have an RB1 week with 23.8 half PPR points. He has a brutal Week 8 matchup against a lights-out Tampa Bay run defense, but needs to be acquired since he has shown the most upside of the Giants RBs to this point and may be the starter for the foreseeable future. The severity of Devonta Freeman's ankle injury is unknown, but Gallman has RB2 upside if Freeman is out. In his first action since Week 2, Sterling Shepard logged a season-high 78.8-percent Snap Share, while also recording season-highs with eight targets, three red zone targets, 59 receiving yards, 60 Air Yards and 17.9 (No. 16 among qualified wide receivers) fantasy points. He's the de facto WR1 for the Giants and has low-end WR3 upside so long as he stays healthy. The offense overall is lackluster, but Shepard will maintain fantasy relevance in PPR formats.

Boston Scott is walking into at least one week of pseudo-starter responsibilities. Scott is the next man up, and a short week against the New York Giants ensures that Miles Sanders will sit and that scoring opportunity will be abundant. Doug Pederson has a history of using a committee when no true workhorse is available to carry the load. Still, one week RB2 upside makes Scott a worthy Flex play for those looking to fill bye weeks. J.D. McKissic has forced himself onto the fantasy radar with at least six receptions in each game since Dwayne Haskins was relinquished to the bench. Kyle Allen is a checkdown machine that helped fuel Christian McCaffrey's historic 2019 run. McKissic is AFC James White with PPR flex value completely supported by targets. He's a high-floor PPR Flex option perfect for bye week fill-ins.

Chase Claypool is the hot ticket pickup for Week 6 after a four touchdown performance against the Eagles. His efficiency will obviously come down to Earth, but his profile supports his breakout being for real. The Steelers average 37.2 (No. 16) Team Pass Plays per Game, so there is plenty of opportunity for Claypool. His eruption was seemingly linked to Diontae Johnson being injured. However, the overall productivity of this offense can lead him to weekly fantasy success. Travis Fulgham looks like 2020's Phillip Lindsay; the undrafted guy nobody ever heard of who may finish top 24 at his position. Carson Wentz can sill activate high-end fantasy receivers and as of Week 5, his best weapon is Fulgham. Add him in all formats as the ultimate boom/bust acquisition of 2020. His range of outcomes include returning to irrelevancy or ascending to moderate stardom and at least Flex value.

PlayerProfiler subscribers already know all about Joshua Kelley's upside. He's healthy Sony Michel. His usage was throttled back in favor of Austin Ekeler over these last few weeks, but Ekeler is slated to miss 4-6 weeks with a Grade 2 hamstring strain. The split between Kelley and Justin Jackson is yet to be seen, but both players warrant a bid going into the Week 5 waiver run. Julio Jones is dealing with lingering hamstring issues, paving the way for more opportunity for Olamide Zaccheaus, who profiles as a proficient slot receiver best comparable to Jamison Crowder. His 34.1-percent (94th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Target Share and 19.1 (88th-percentile) Breakout Age suggest that this undrafted free agent belongs on NFL rosters and fantasy teams alike.

Jerick McKinnon is the obvious plug-and-play RB1 option for Week 3 with both Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman injured. Though his athleticism may have been compromised by his 2018 ACL tear, he was already working with a baseline of "most athletic RB in the entire PlayerProfiler database." If you didn't acquire him last week, you need to bid aggressively on his league-winning profile. Dalton Schultz thrived in Blake Jarwin's role during Dallas' Week 2 win against Atlanta. Nine receptions on ten targets for 88 yards in inspiring enough to start Schultz moving forward. After surprisingly leading all Cowboys pass-catchers with 10 targets against the Falcons, Schultz became this week's free square waiver wire TE pickup.

Russell Gage spent the offseason as an intriguing late-round dart throw in Best Ball after a strong finish in 2019. He erupted in Week 1, matching both Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley with 12 targets, nine receptions and over 100 receiving yards. Expect him to be the No. 1 waiver wire target this week as a result. We wouldn't recommend blowing all of your FAAB or a top priority waiver claim on Gage, but he's certainly worthy of a bench spot and Flex consideration. The Logan Thomas breakout is upon us. Many refused to believe that Thomas could be this year's Darren Waller due to the low probability of having two breakout tight ends in back-to-back years that came from absolutely nowhere. Thomas led the Washington Football team with eight targets and his usage was beyond promising for future success. Add Thomas and insert him into your starting tight end slot unless you already have one of the Big Five on your roster.

Baltimore is a candidate for regression after a crazy 2019 and normally would have to fall on a power rankings list heading into a new season. However, this team added many significant players on defense and worked to notably improve the unit in 2020. They had a big-play defense, but struggled to consistently stop teams last year. With improved defense and a healthy, sturdier Marquise Brown, this team is primed to repeat its dominance. The Titans are in the middle of the pack after four consecutive 9-7 seasons. Many tout this team as being upper-tier, but they have never been. The 2019 Titans were the quintessential "heating up at the right time" team. Ryan Tannehill is a significant upgrade to Marcus Mariota, but this team is slowly losing talent and reverting to its 9-7 form. They're neither bad nor great, they're average.

DeSean Jackson has the highest ceiling among all players drafted outside the top 100 and it is not close. His floor is zero and its unlikely he plays a full season but, at an ADP of 148.11, he is an easy bench stash. Jackson can be the WR1 any given week, and three to five monster weeks is all that's needed to validate the pick. His 42 career catches of 50-plus yards are the most by any player in the history of the NFL. With an ADP of 206.98, Randall Cobb is nearly an afterthought in Best Ball drafts. The Texans gave him a considerable amount of money given his age, and his competition for short targets is non-existent. There is no tight end of consequence on Houston's roster and Deshaun Watson has a tendency to prolong plays rather than simply dump off to the RBs. Etch Cobb's name in with pen as your WR7/8 in Best Ball drafts.

Matthew Stafford's 2019 metrics show a stud with a 107.9 (No. 6 among qualified quarterbacks) True Passer Rating, a +19.0 (No. 6) Production Premium, and 0.51 (No. 5) Fantasy Points per Dropback. Marvin Jones continues to produce at a similar rate to Kenny Golladay with a much lower cost. Swapping Jones for Golladay also presents monster upside, but at less value. This stack will produce some monster fantasy numbers this season. Drafting any number of Carolina's skill position players is a winning strategy this year. Teddy Bridgewater is an extreme QB2 value, with an FFPC ADP of 149.62 (QB25). D.J. Moore is a stud with top 5 wide receiver upside and he is a value in the third round. Curtis Samuel proved his talent in 2019 by leading the league in Air Yards but suffering from a 62.6-percent (No. 105) Catchable Target Rate. This stack presents a strong weekly floor with mega-upside when the shootouts come, and they will.

Miles Sanders is costly in drafts this season and deserves to be. He can go No. 5 overall after the big four running backs and still be a value. Sanders presents overall RB1 upside with a top 12 floor. He proved last season that he is a workhorse, and the coaching staff has said multiple times that they plan on using him as such in 2020. The Eagles committed no draft capital or significant money to indicate otherwise. D'Andre Swift has the same amount of league-winning upside as Jonathan Taylor, but comes at half the cost in drafts. He is set to follow a similar path as 2019 Miles Sanders. The committee approach we have seen in the Lions backfield over the last few years has suppressed his ADP to the fifth round of FFPC drafts. Swift will take over this backfield the same way Sanders dominated in Philadelphia. Build a team that can get you to the playoffs and let Swift carry you to a championship.

Using late round draft capital on running back handcuffs is a losing proposition. The goal with late round picks is to draft Week 1 breakouts before they become top waiver adds. Avoid straight handcuffs such as Tony Pollard and Ryquell Armstead. Wide receivers are much better upside plays in the late rounds (i.e. Terry McLaurin and Marquise Brown last year). However, committee backs with Week 1 roles that will expand in the case of injury are also great targets. DeAndre Hopkins goes from being a target hog for Deshaun Watson to being one of many talented receivers for Kyler Murray. While Murray is a talented young quarterback, Arizona's target distribution and overall offensive output is still uncertain. Top-flight wide receivers have a long history of losing value in the season after changing quarterbacks due to lost rapport. Hopkins still has a WR1 outcome in his range of possibilities, but the risk at his top 5 positional ADP makes him an easy fade.

Rob Gronkowski presents double-digit touchdown upside and will return value at his cost. The injury risk is already baked into his ADP. Not to mention he had an entire year away from football to rehabilitate his body and prepare for a return to the NFL. The "crowded" Tampa Bay receiver corps and tight end room is actually a boost for Gronk's value. It seems counter-intuitive, but less time on the field means less wear and tear, and the targets he draws will all be high-quality and high-efficiency opportunities. Jonathan Taylor is the second-best running back prospect since Saquon Barkley. Many cannot appreciate his profile because the odds of having two Barkleys only two years apart are low. He's a can't-miss prospect running behind an elite offensive line in a run-first system. Players cannot miss on the 1.01 in rookie drafts and we draft players for life in dynasty. Taylor at 1.01 is the safest bet anyone can make in fantasy football in 2020.

Adam Thielen's ADP falls because of Minnesota's run-first philosophy and general apathy towards their quarterback's skillset. Pass volume is far from a concern for 2020, with data from the "World Famous Draft Kit" supporting an argument for reversion to the mean. Positive regression is coming for a unit with a consolidated target distribution between Thielen, Dalvin Cook, and the tight ends. The Chargers have 104 (No. 17) Vacated Targets, and Philip Rivers leaving implies fewer looks for Austin Ekeler and more for the receivers. Tyrod Taylor can sustain a WR2 floor for Keean Allen, who is drafted as a fringe top-24 play. In three season with Buffalo, Taylor's completion percentage never fell below 60-percent, and his QBR was also always above 60. Allen is a strong option in the middle rounds with a high floor in Best Ball.

The Indianapolis Colts will play the NFC North, the AFC North, the Jets, the Raiders, and their own division twice. That list includes mostly run-first teams with erratic quarterback play resulting in a more conservative offensive game plan; i.e. low scoring and high-turnover opponents. Their own division is up for grabs and arguably among the easier divisions in football. The Colts' offseason moves indicate that this team plans to win games utilizing the running game and their elite offensive line. Based on their talent and schedule, they easily can be a top defense. Their affordable ADP in fantasy drafts makes them the ideal target in redraft and best ball leagues. Don't overpay for last years rankings, go buy this years defensive league winner.

Phillip Dorsett is currently slotted in as the number three receiver in Seattle and the primary deep threat. Last season, Tom Brady had a 100.6 QBR when targeting Dorsett, good enough for No. 32 among qualified players. He will now be drawing targets from Russell Wilson; who boasted a 110.9 (No. 4) True Passer Rating in 2019 with a 39.8-percent (No. 12) Deep Ball Completion Percentage. Kaden Smith's usage in seven games last season was absurd with a 94.6-percent (No. 1) Snap Share, a 70.9-percent (No. 8) Route Participation mark, and a 16.7-percent (No. 11) Target Share on an offense that saw the seventh-most pass plays per game. He managed 10.8 Fantasy Points per Game with a 73.8-percent (No. 12) Catch Rate with three (No. 19) touchdowns. Add in Engrams No. 5 Injury Probability ranking and No. 11 Fragility Rating and we have the recipe for a TE1 in fantasy football.

James White's 72 targets and 95 receptions both ranked No. 6 among qualified running backs in 2019, a significant decrease from 2018. Despite regression, he still finished among the top 24 players at his position in Fantasy Points per Game. Furthermore, his role in the New England backfield is secure with the personnel remaining unchanged from last year. The receiving room can improve if N'Keal Harry ascends, but White's role is safe. White also has no significant injury history, having missed only two games in three years. At 28 years old, he will have no issues staying on the field. Whether going Robust RB or Zero RB, White should have a place on our fantasy teams. He's a PPR monster and his role in this offense goes beyond Tom Brady's tendency to check down. Whether its Brian Hoyer or Jarrett Stidham under center, checkdowns to White will be plentiful in 2020.

Devin Funchess serves no specific role in a run-first offense with an established alpha at wide receiver. His efficiency and productivity metrics in 2018 were deplorable, but he did lead the league in one category: drops. Funchess' 75.9-percent (No. 90 among qualified wide receivers) True Catch Rate and 13.9-percent (No. 1) Drop Rate do not mix well with Aaron Rodgers' well-known lack of tolerance for drops. The Pittsburgh Steelers succeeded this off season in obliterating the role Jaylen Samuels enjoyed in 2019. Samuels failed to capitalize when called upon each time James Conner suffered an injury. He is in a touch squeeze with Benny Snell and fourth-round rookie Anthony McFarland. He faces additional target competition from second-round pick Chase Claypool and free agent addition Eric Ebron. Samuels is no longer a late-round committee receiving back who is an injury away from monster fantasy weeks.

David Montgomery is viewed as a borderline RB2 in seasonal drafts this year and he is obtainable in dynasty trades. He’s ranked as the RB25 on PlayerProfiler’s dynasty rankings, while the “World Famous Draft Kit” ranks him at RB23 in seasonal PPR leagues. His FFPC ADP is in the mid-40s and he often falls into the fifth round of drafts. Chicago’s lackluster 2019 season diminished the fantasy value of its star players. Many will pass on Montgomery this season, failing to see his upside. The consensus is that Montgomery's ceiling starts and ends with Jordan Howard's 2018 production. A deeper dig quickly shows this is not the case. Montgomery, as a rookie, matched Howard's 2018 stats in fewer games, outperforming Howard in almost every efficiency metric available on PlayerProfiler. He's inefficient, but faces high volume with a better overall profile than Howard. He's being drafted and traded with expectations of being the next Howard. Buying Montgomery at that value is a win.

N'Keal Harry is the best candidate to be the next low risk/high reward wide receiver in fantasy drafts this season. His current FFPC ADP puts him in the 16th round. Though all New England skill position players are devalued due to Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer being the quarterbacks. Harry is perceived to have stiff competition from Julian Edelman, Mohamed Sanu, and James White. Nobody should be surprised when Harry outperforms all three of these guys in 2020. Darius Slayton offers the most upside among Giants receivers on deep targets and in the red zone, the areas of the field where the most fantasy points are accrued. Sterling Shepard has the higher floor in this offense, but Slayton has the higher ceiling. His deep threat ability and red zone potential make him a fantasy value at his cost, being taken outside the top 100 players. Slayton's player profile and rookie year production place him directly on path to emerge as the lead target in the Giants passing game. 

Will Dissly has the production and player profile that fantasy gamers love in their tight ends. He currently stands as the No. 3 target in a Russell Wilson-led offense with two years of rapport with both Wilson and the coaching staff. D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett form a nice 1A-1B tandem at receiver with a combined 13.1 targets per game in 2019; but Wilson averaged 32.2 passes per game in 2019 and put up 31 (No. 3 among qualified quarterbacks) passing touchdowns. There is plenty of meat on the bone for a third and even a fourth contributor in this passing game. Dissly's injury risk is real, but it is also baked into his ADP. He is essentially free in all formats. He can be picked as a team's third tight end in the late teens and even after round 20 in all formats. His ceiling is top 12 tight end in 2020, with the opportunity to be the primary red zone weapon and touchdown scorer for Russell Wilson. Considering he is free in all formats, we should be more than willing to swallow that injury pill for a potential top 12 tight end producer.