Aaron Stewart

Director of Content

Aaron Stewart is a content manager and serves as the Director of Content for PlayerProfiler! Aaron also serves as a fantasy football writer, podcaster, and streamer. He’s been playing fantasy football for 16 years. During that time, he’s gone from league participant to multi-league commissioner. Additionally, he has played a variation of formats such as DFS, dynasty football, best ball, Prediction Strike, and guillotine leagues. Two of his distinguishable abilities in fantasy football is week-to-week lineup optimization and he does a weekly Start-Sit stream on the PlayerProfiler TikTok.

In addition to his role of content manager and serving as Director of Content, his other ability is a thorough understanding of NFL player contracts and the salary cap. Aaron has written a series of articles devoted to contracts and the NFL salary cap. Readers can find them on the PlayerProfiler website in the News and Articles section. Aaron has also appeared on a bevy of shows including the Writer’s Roundtable, Trade Gods, and Mock Draft Live! He is best known for his infamous feud with the no good do-gooder and Head of Editing, Seth Diewold. You can follow Aaron on Twitter @aaronstew09 to see advanced stats and salary cap threads. Aaron believes these will interest NFL and fantasy football fans alike.

My Guys

Jayden Reed

WR, Green Bay Packers

Marquise Brown

WR, Arizona Cardinals

Wan'Dale Robinson

WR, New York Giants

Articles

Transaction Implication: Aaron Jones Contract

by Aaron Stewart

The Packers entered the 2023 offseason $17.5M OVER the salary cap and with an uncertain quarterback situation. Aaron Rodgers, the team's starting quarterback, has been embroiled in a high-profile feud with the team's management and it's unclear whether he'll return for the 2023 season. With all of the questions looming about the future of the Packers, where does Aaron Jones' contract figure into that discussion? Most importantly, how does this directly affect our fantasy teams in 2023?

Divisional Round Showdown: Cowboys vs. 49ers

by Aaron Stewart

The Dallas Cowboys and the San Francisco 49ers took care of business in the Wild Card and boast two of the best defenses in the NFL. Who will win in a rematch of last year's Wild Card matchup?

Wild Card Showdown: Cowboys vs. Buccaneers

by Aaron Stewart

This Wild Card Showdown between the Cowboys and Buccaneers is perhaps the most enticing matchup this week! Can Dallas avenge their season opener loss to Tom Brady and the Buccaneers? Or will Brady prevent the Cowboys from getting their first-ever victory against him?

Transaction Implication: Goodbye Michael Thomas

by Aaron Stewart

On Saturday, January 7th, 2023, the New Orleans Saints announced a restructured contract with wide receiver Michael Thomas. Since 2020, Thomas has played in 10 total games. So why are the Saints and Michael Thomas restructuring his contract and what does this mean for us in fantasy and dynasty football leagues?

Week 17 WR-CB Matchups: Christian Will Irk You

by Aaron Stewart

For the third time in six games, Christian Kirk goes against a top-10 defense against slot wide receivers. Desmond King and the Texans' secondary allow THE fewest receiving touchdowns to wide receivers and only three defenses allow fewer fantasy points per game. With this in mind, what other matchups should fantasy gamers pay special attention to during Championship Week?

Week 16 WR-CB Matchups: Scared To Play Terry

by Aaron Stewart

When Taylor Heinicke first took over at quarterback, Terry McLaurin responded with four straight games finishing inside the top-30 at his position. Since then, he's finished top-30 once in his last four games. What's scarier than Terry? Charvarius Ward matching up with your favorite team's No. 1 WR.

Week 15 WR-CB Matchups: Bad JuJu This Week

by Aaron Stewart

When making start/sit decisions, matchups are important to consider. With the fantasy playoffs on the way, which wide receivers are facing tougher coverage this week? Which wide receivers should we consider benching because of.a tough matchup?

Week 14 WR-CB Matchups: Ward Threatens Evans

by Aaron Stewart

It's concerning that in his last three games that Mike Evans hasn't topped 11 fantasy points despite facing young cornerbacks that rank outside the top-50 in the Cornerback Rankings. Evans has faced two top-10 cornerbacks this season, resulting in two of his three worst performances on the season.

Week 13 WR-CB Matchups: See the Forest for the Bobby Trees

by Aaron Stewart

In his last three games, Robert Woods has had 7, 7, and 6 targets. During this stretch, he managed a 6-69-0 stat line against Jaire Alexander and the Packers has SIX red zone targets total. Woods' season has been a disaster as a whole, but that's why he's still available in 60-percent of Sleeper leagues.

Week 12 WR-CB Matchups: Play Less D.J. Moore

by Aaron Stewart

50-percent of Sleeper leagues are starting D.J. Moore with the Carolina Panthers getting ready to face the Denver Broncos and their tough secondary. Moore is top-10 in targets (82) and Air Yards (920), but his season has been hindered by the plethora of pernicious Panthers passers under center.

Predicting and Striking – Week 11 Prediction Strike Targets

by Aaron Stewart

As we approach the final stretch of the season, I only want to invest in players that I am confident in their ability to retain fantasy relevancy into next season. Dameon Pierce is top-10 in Opportunity Share (73.6-percent) and Dominator Rating (29.9-percent) with room to grow his role in the receiving game (No. 22 in targets).

Week 11 WR-CB Matchups: Pittman Ain't It, Man

by Aaron Stewart

Fading a wide receiver with a 25.6-percent (No. 19) Target Share and 603 (No. 16) receiving yards is a gamble, but Michael Pittman has not finished as a top-30 WR since Week 6. This week Nico Collins gets the Washington Commanders, who allow the second-highest Average Target Distance and fourth-most Air Yards.

Predicting and Striking - Week 10 Prediction Strike Targets

by Aaron Stewart

As we approach the end of the season, our strategy on Prediction Strike shifts towards finding guys that not only can make money in the next 3-4 weeks, BUT also will grow in future seasons. Enter George Pickens.

Week 10 WR-CB Matchups: Josh Face-Palmer

by Aaron Stewart

Yes, Terry McLaurin has seen 8+ targets in each game since Taylor Heinicke took over at quarterback while facing touch matchups and secondaries in the Packers and Colts, but the Heinicke-McLaurin pairing went 0-2 against Darius Slay and the Eagles last season on its attempts to get McLaurin to finish inside the top-30 at his position. I'm fading Josh Palmer and recommending his teammate, DeAndre Carter. Obviously, monitor Keenan Allen's status, but he didn't practice on Thursday and not trending toward playing at the time of this writing. In the past two games, Carter has been forced into play. He's responded with snap shares over 80-percent, over 6 targets per game, and over 70+ Air Yards per game.

Week 9 WR-CB Matchups: Time to Trust Terrace Marshall

by Aaron Stewart

The Cardinals' weakness on defense is yards after catch (they allow the most in the NFL). Meanwhile, Lockett is No. 55 in Yards After Catch with 83 and averaging 1.4 per target. Marshall's snaps, routes run, and targets have gone up each week, culminating in a 9-target Week 8 performance where he finished with 12.7 (No. 29) fantasy points. In Week 7, Carter had a 94-percent Snap Share, saw 7 targets, and finished with over 70 Air Yards.

Predicting and Striking - Prediction Strike Targets Week 8

by Aaron Stewart

Tony Pollard has never had a projection this high before (14.99) but has topped it twice in his last six games while splitting a backfield AND he did it against two of the five toughest defenses in fantasy for running backs. Hurts' projection is set at 22.49 points on Prediction Strike. He's hit that in four of six games this season and his price has dipped over 12-percent over the past month. Chubb's point differential is an absurd 4.5 points. Simply put, Prediction Strike is not high enough on Chubb.

Week 8 WR-CB Matchups: I've Got a Thielen - Fade Adam

by Aaron Stewart

Amari Cooper has faced two top-10 cornerbacks this season and he's finished under 5.0 fantasy points in both games this season. Adam Thielen's three "bad" games came against defenses in the bottom third of the NFL in points allowed to WRs. Mack Hollins is discount Gabriel Davis. Low Target Share wide receivers with high Snap Shares and Route Participation plus top-10 Average Target Distance.

Predicting and Striking - Prediction Strike Targets Week 7

by Aaron Stewart

A brief recap of Week 6: Devin Singletary and Kyle Pitts both saw their share price increase, while Lamar Jackson went down. BUT if you joined the PlayerProfiler Discord server, you would have received a fourth buy option from me: Ja'Marr Chase. That was the big money-making move on the platform! Let's carry the momentum into Week 7. The NFL's leading rusher missed his Prediction Strike projection for the first time this season last week and his price plummeted from $10.04 to $8.74 per share. It appears that Prediction Strike has overreacted to this and dropped Nick Chubb's projection to 15.03 points, which is the lowest since Week 1 and it's 2.5 points lower than his previous two weeks.

Week 7 WR-CB Matchups: Jaire Alexander The Great

by Aaron Stewart

Each passing week of the NFL season means that we have more information about teams, players, and strengths and weaknesses of defenses. Terry McLaurin has been predictable the past three weeks. He struggled against a top corner in Week 4 when he faced Trevon Diggs, put up top-30 numbers against a porous Titans secondary in Week 5, and finished with another bad performance against Jaylon Johnson and the strong Bears pass defense in Week 6.

Predicting and Striking: Prediction Strike Targets- Week 6

by Aaron Stewart

Since the start of our public Discord server, I've been posting ALL of the transactions that I've made on Prediction Strike, the world's first sports stock market. I've also started a show that is ONLY on Thursdays at 8 pm ET on Discord where I identify players that interest me for the week and that my audience should take note of. I don't have to sell you on Lamar Jackson. He's No. 1 in Fantasy Points Per Dropback and averaging 74.8 rushing yards per game. Devin Singletary is top-8 in targets, receptions, yards, and Routes Run among running backs and has a 12.6-percent (No. 12) Target Share and 53.9-percent (No. 10) Route Participation. He's also No. 10 in Snap Share and No. 20 in Weighted Opportunities. Yes, Kyle Pitts has been a monumental disaster in fantasy football (thanks Arthur Smith), but here are the facts. He's No. 3 in Target Share, No. 2 in Air Yards and Air Yards Share, and leads TEs in Yards Per Reception with 15.0.

Week 6 WR-CB Matchups: Locking Down Lockett

by Aaron Stewart

Tyler Lockett is matched up with Byron Murphy, who is top-20 in Yards Allowed, Yards Per Reception Allowed, and Yards Per Target Allowed. Drake London is No. 81 in Target Separation and No. 77 in Contested Catch Rate. His primary coverage, Charvarius Ward, is top-10 in Target Separation and No. 2 in Pass Break-Ups with 7. What Russell Gage lacks in Target Share (15.3-percent, No. 59) and Air Yards (153), he makes up for with Target Separation (2.03, No. 22) and 78 (No. 42) Yards After Catch. K.J. Osborn's lackluster 11.5-percent (N0. 85) Target Share and 15.3-percent (No. 75) Air Yards Share are countered with his 76.4-percent (No. 51) Snap Share and 162 (No. 23) Routes Run.

Predicting and Striking: Prediction Strike Targets- Week 5

by Aaron Stewart

If you're interested in building your own portfolio on Prediction Strike, this article series will feature THREE players that I am personally targeting on Prediction Strike. Make sure to use promo code: UNDERWORLD when you make a first deposit of at least $20 in order to get one random share of an athlete. Prediction Strike has overcorrected on Kamara. He's still a GOOD running back that only turned 27 years old two months ago. Getting started on Prediction Strike? Then Jalen Hurts will become your best friend. An elite fantasy quarterback is priced under $3 per share and Prediction Strike consistently is too low on his projections.

Week 5 WR-CB Matchups: Warding off Williams

by Aaron Stewart

Mike Williams has not faced a cornerback ranked inside the top-30 though. Last season, Williams played against six top-30 CBs. He failed to finish inside the top-40 WRs in each of those six weeks. Noah Brown has been sneaky good this season. He's top-25 in Yards Per Route Run, Yards Per Target, and Yards Per Reception. Because of injuries, he's seen a 21.3-percent (No. 32) Target Share. Fading Marquise Brown last week was not a good call, but it's hard to bet against Darius Slay this season. Slay is No. 3 in Coverage Rating (+45.8) and No. 3 in Catch Rate Allowed (28.6-percent).

Week 4 WR-CB Matchups: Playing Terry is Scary

by Aaron Stewart

It's not only the cornerback matchup that is a problem for Marquise Brown; the Panthers have a good pass defense. Only two defenses have been targeted more than Carolina AND allowed fewer passing yards. Terry McLaurin's Target Share is 16.5-percent (No. 56). McLaurin's Target Share has NEVER been below 23.0-percent in his career. Nico Collins'15.5-percent (No. 60) Target Share is lower than one would want to see for a dart throw, but Collins does have a nine-target game this season where he exceeded 120 Air Yards.

Week 3 WR-CB Matchups: Start DK? You Must Be JK!

by Aaron Stewart

D.K. Metcalf is still top-30 in Target Share and Snap Share this season, but the Geno Smith-led Seahawks offense isn't utilizing Metcalf optimally. Shepard is top-20 in Target Share and Air Yards Share. On top of that, he's No. 33 in Yards Per Route Run. He currently leads the NFL in Target Separation Vs. Man and is the undisputed top option in the Giants' passing offense.

Week 2 WR-CB Matchups: The Waddle Audible

by Aaron Stewart

Jaylen Waddle finished inside the top-20 last week thanks to a touchdown, but his opportunity metrics are concerning. His Target Share ranks No. 40 among wide receivers and his Slot Rate plummeted from 43.8-percent last season to 17.5-percent in Week 1. Rashod Bateman's opportunity metrics from Week 1 show that inconsistent performances will occur. He was outside the top-50 in targets, Snap Share, and Route Participation. Marvin Jones is top-20 in Air Yards and Routes Run. On top of that, he's top-10 in Average Target Distance, Unrealized Air Yards, and Deep Targets. Jakobi Meyers saw a 92.5-percent (No. 16) Snap Share, 20.0-percent (No. 32) Target Share, and 32.7-percent (No. 23) Air Yards Share. On top of that, his 14.8 (No. 14) Average Target Distance in Week 1 was MUCH higher than years past where he's been under 11.0 every season.

FADING Michael Thomas: Week 1 WR-CB Matchups

by Aaron Stewart

A.J. Terrell finished 2021 ranked No. 1 in Coverage Rating, Catch Rate Allowed, Passer Rating Allowed, and Fantasy Points Allowed Per Target. Meanwhile, Michael Thomas has gone on to play in one game since their Week 13 matchup in 2020. Amari Cooper had three top-10 scoring weeks last season. Two of those cornerbacks primarily tasked to guard him are out of the NFL. Outside of those games, Cooper had ZERO top-24 performances in 2021.

The Injury Finder Has ARRIVED!

by Aaron Stewart

Is a player injury prone? No more speculations and guesses. The Injury Finder app determines the likelihood that a skill position player is injured on any given touch by leveraging PlayerProfiler's expansive database and predictive analytics to determine injury probabilities.

NFL Salary Re-Cap: Arizona Cardinals

by Aaron Stewart

It's time we voyage into the world of the NFL salary cap in order to make us better understand the business side of football. Why are we doing this? Well, we analyze college players in order to predict who will succeed and fail at the NFL level. We decipher advanced stats to determine which players are good and bad at our favorite pastime, fantasy football.

Week 8 WR-CB Matchups - Start/Sit WR Decisions

by Aaron Stewart

Kalif Raymond is top-25 among wide receivers in Yards After Catch Per Target (3.38) and Yards After Catch Per Reception (5.08). Why is this important? The Eagles defense is allowing a completion percentage of 74.36-percent of all passes and their 821 Yards After Catch allowed is 12th-most in the NFL. If Terry McLaurin can't get his yards through the air, he'll have a difficult time getting it after the catch. The Broncos have allowed 653 (third-fewest) Yards After Catch this season. This brings us to the Rams' opponent, the Houston Texans. Their defense has allowed 1149 (No. 4) Completed Air Yards and have allowed an Average Target Distance of 8.7 (ninth-most in the NFL). There aren't many wide receivers available in free agency that have six consecutive weeks of 25+ Routes Run. Scoop up Van Jefferson and start him this week!

Week 4 WR-CB Matchups – Start/Sit WR Decisions

by Aaron Stewart

Darnell Mooney is inside the top-30 among qualified wide receivers in both Air Yards Share (33.5-percent) and Target Share (22.9-percent) for the Bears. Remember last week when Marquise Brown dropped two touchdowns against the Detroit Lions? Mooney is an equally as fast WR (4.38 40-Yard Dash, 95th-percentile) with better hands (two career drops on 117 targets). Nelson Agholor has an 84.8-percent (No. 24) Snap Share, 114 (No. 7) Routes Run, and a 95.0-percent (No. 18) Route Participation. Fantasy football is about opportunity and being involved on offense is the first step to productivity. With 6 (No. 5) Deep Targets and a 14.0 (No. 21) Average Target Distance, he has a defined role on offense too.

Week 3 MNF Showdown: Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

by Aaron Stewart

This week the Philadelphia Eagles travel to play their hated divisional rival Dallas Cowboys for Week 3's MNF game. The game will be a measuring stick for how good the Eagles' offense is this season. For the Cowboys, they need to prove that their road victory over the Chargers and near upset of the Buccaneers was not a façade. Are you ready for Devonta Smith week? The rookie has 237 (No. 11) Air Yards, a 51.2-percent (No. 6) Air Yards Share, and a 26.8-percent (No. 16) Target Share. Dallas is going to allow Air Yards. It's a guarantee that a large portion will go to Smith. I see Pollard and his 18.8-percent Breakaway Run Rate and 47.8-percent (No. 4) Juke Rate scoring more fantasy points than Elliott on MNF.

Week 3 WR-CB Matchups – Start/Sit WR Decisions

by Aaron Stewart

The key to finding receivers rostered in less than 50-percent of leagues with startable upside is to follow the Air Yards. This week is no different when it comes to my two start recommendations. Emmanuel Sanders has 235 (No. 12) Air Yards, with 145 (No. 7) being Unrealized Air Yards. Regardless of whether Antonio Brown plays or not, Mike Evans is a sit for me in Week 3. Opposing tight ends are targeted 19 times in two games against the Rams' defense. Moore leads the Jets with 173 (No. 32) Air Yards, with 134 (N0. 9) being Unrealized Air Yards. The Broncos defense, thanks to Callahan, take away the check-down options and allow an Average Target Distance of 10.8.

Week 2 MNF Showdown: Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

by Aaron Stewart

Week 2’s MNF game pits division rival Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers against one another. Both teams will look to avoid an 0-2 start to their season. Will the Lions shock public and win in Lambeau? Or should Packers fans R-E-L-A-X and know that their team will get back on course? Divisional games are not my favorite types of games to bet on. Why? Because these teams are better prepared to play each other than they would be against teams they see less frequently. Detroit is a trap. Ask anyone that took the 49ers’ spread last week.

Week 2 WR-CB Matchups – Start/Sit WR Decisions

by Aaron Stewart

Diontae Johnson was a top-10 WR in Week 1 in Target Share (31.3-percent), Hog Rate (25.0-percent), and Target Rate (37.0-percent). However, Johnson will face stiff coverage from Casey Hayward (No. 17-ranked CB) in a game that the Steelers are projected to handle with ease. Volume is key to fantasy points scored. In 2020, Johnson averaged 19.44 fantasy points in seven games he ran 40-plus routes. In six games (excluding injuries) that he ran under 40 routes, he averaged 14.0 fantasy points. Has Ja'Marr Chase relegated Tee Higgins to the 1B passing option in Cincinnati with Tyler Boyd as a target-stealing No. 3? Possibly. Chase more than doubled Higgins' 48 (No. 58) Air Yards, while Chase's 26.9-percent (No. 12) Target Share dwarfed Higgins' 19.2-percent (No. 41). Against a lesser cornerback in Bashaud Breeland last week, Higgins secured a 10.0-percent (No. 73) Hog Rate. Joe Burrow will not force-feed targets to him if he can't beat Jaylon Johnson (No. 20-ranked CB).

Week 1 MNF Showdown: Baltimore Ravens at Las Vegas Raiders

by Aaron Stewart

Coming off of back-to-back 1000 yard rushing seasons, Lamar Jackson’s playmaking with his legs balances out his lack of passing opportunity, productivity, and efficiency. With injuries to J.K. Dobbins (ACL), Rashod Bateman (groin), and Gus Edwards (ACL), once again Jackson will be forced to offset the losses with his legs. The only receiving option to start for the Raiders is Darren Waller. Ravens allowed 120 targets and 82 receptions to the tight end position in 2020. Both finished in the 12th-highest amounts among defenses according to Pro-Football-Reference. Waller is the only certainty in the Raiders’ offense and finished with more top-5 performances (9) than games outside the top-5 (7).

Week 1 WR-CB Matchups - Start/Sit WR Decisions

by Aaron Stewart

The start of a new NFL season means the return of the weekly WR-CB Matchups article! This season my goal is to bring attention to receivers available in most leagues that can provide FLEX starts to fantasy teams. Also, I want to identify receivers that shouldn't start despite starting in a vast majority of leagues. My START recommendations are ideal for FLEX spots in 1QB-2RB-2WR-1TE-1FLEX leagues. My SIT recommendations are ideal if there is an alternate candidate to play over the receiver. Since 2019, Russell Gage has exceeded 70-percent Snap Share in 12 games. In those games, he has scored 12.8 PPG or more nine times. Last season, the Rams went 3-0 in home games where they were at least 5-point favorites. Robert Woods averaged less than 10.0 fantasy points per game in each game. Meanwhile, Parris Campbell's Hog Rate has exceeded 13-percent in both of his NFL seasons, and his Target Rate hasn't dipped below 26-percent in a season.

Range of Outcomes: SEC Rookie WRs

by Aaron Stewart

When pairing Elijah Moore's athleticism with his draft capital and production, Tyler Lockett and Emmanuel Sanders are perfect players to look for his floor and ceiling. Moore has shown in college he can be a target hog. His junior season in 2020 saw him lead the FBS with 10.8 receptions and 149.1 receiving yards per game. His floor is fringe WR3 playing primarily outside and his ceiling is high-end WR2 as a PPR monster in the slot. Size? Check. Early breakout? Check. Draft capital? Check. Terrace Marshall checks all of the boxes that we look for at PlayerProfiler. He has the widest range of outcomes in the 2021 wide receiver class. Is it unfathomable for another LSU receiver to force D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson to eventually take back seats? Marshall’s floor is WR4 and his ceiling is he becomes the captain and produces top-five fantasy seasons.

Range of Outcomes: Top-Five Rookie WRs

by Aaron Stewart

Ja'Marr Chase broke out during his sophomore season with a 19.5 (77th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Breakout Age. This mirrors Odell Beckham’s 19.8 (68th-percentile) BOA. Beckham put together back-to-back top-five WR seasons in PPR during the 2015-16 seasons. Target competition is a valid concern for Chase that Beckham did not face during his ascension. A takeaway from Chase’s 2019 collegiate season, though, is that he has the talent to maximize his targets. Chase’s ceiling is multiple top-5 PPR seasons and his floor is a touchdown-dependent WR2. Devonta Smith must be the outlier of outliers to succeed at the NFL. At 6-0 and 170-pounds, the concern with Smith is BMI. We don’t have any players in the database anywhere close to Smith’s size. His Best Comparable Player, Joe Horn, had 30 pounds on him. Does this make Smith a bad prospect? Absolutely not. The goal with analytics is to find ways to limit mistakes. Simply put, we have not seen players with his analytical profile succeed in the NFL. Therefore, it’s impossible to take anything away from his Best Comparable Player comps.

Transaction Implication: Josh Allen, Quarter of a BILLion Dollar QB

by Aaron Stewart

Josh Allen joins Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott as QBs making over $40 million per year. Once QBs sign their big post-rookie contracts, the clock starts to tick for their teams. How long will Buffalo's window for competing remain open? Can they win a Super Bowl before Allen's cap hit skyrockets? Is his extension a team-friendly contract? How does this affect Lamar Jackson’s extension talks? The Bills were a top AFC team last season and have improved in three consecutive years. I don’t see that changing in the next three. If it does change, it won’t be because Allen’s contract crippled the team's salary cap. On the contrary, his extension allows Buffalo to extend their Super Bowl window all the way out to 2024 and keep or add key pieces.

Transaction Implication: Aaron Rodgers' Last Dance

by Aaron Stewart

Aaron Rodgers is gone after this season. The parallels between the Packers and the Michael Jordan Netflix documentary are obvious and referenced by involved parties. Allow your Salary Cap-tain to navigate you through the waves of contract and salary cap complexities. The first notable detail about Aaron Rodgers' new contract is the 2023 void year. The next detail to note is Rodgers' 2022 cap hit. Where is Rodgers going to play in 2022? How does the Rodgers saga affect Adams? Where do Cobb and the rookie WR fit in the 2021 plans?

Javonte Williams, Trey Sermon, & RB Trade-Up Analysis

by Aaron Stewart

Of all of the Day 2 running backs drafted by teams that traded up since 2011, Javonte Williams was the highest-drafted running back (Pick No. 35). And he's in excellent company. The sweet spot for NFL Draft trade-up running backs is the top half of the second round. If you had doubts about Williams because he's currently in a timeshare with Melvin Gordon, remember that Alvin Kamara had to split time with Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson in his electric rookie season. The 49ers trading up for Trey Sermon should mean they plan to utilize him at least in a part-time role. Three of the five running backs (60-percent) drafted in the bottom half of the third round by teams that traded up saw at least 115 touches. For comparison, only four of the other 10 running backs (40-percent) drafted in the bottom half of the third round exceeded that mark. Sermon joins an elusive club of third-round running backs that teams traded back INTO the third round to acquire.

Range Of Outcomes For 2021 Rookies: The Big 3 at QB

by Aaron Stewart

2021 No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence became the fourth-ever first-round quarterback to have a Peyton Manning Best Comparable Player comp. He's only the second quarterback in the database with Manning has his No. 1 comparison. Lawrence has two former No. 1 overall picks in his five Best Comparable Player comps, while the other three quarterbacks are non-first round quarterbacks. The ceiling is top-5 fantasy quarterback that leads NFL in passing yards and touchdowns. His floor is a low-QB2 that becomes a fantasy football non-factor. Justin Fields' Best Comparable Player comps are interesting because despite running a 4.51 (99th-percentile among qualified quarterbacks) 40-Yard Dash, Robert Griffin is the only mobile quarterback in his comps. He has the requisite speed, but his college rushing production didn't match his athletic measurements. Fields' ceiling is a league-winning dual-threat quarterback in fantasy leagues and his floor is he's an inconsistent QB2 in fantasy leagues held back by his passing limitations and decision-making; a pseudo-Scott Fish Bowl cheat code quarterback.

Zach Wilson vs. Mac Jones: Rookie QB Ceiling Hunting and Floor Finding

by Aaron Stewart

Hands down, Zach Wilson has the most electric and dynamic list of Best Comparable Players at the quarterback position. He also has the widest range of outcomes in this rookie quarterback class. Ultimately, Wilson reaching his ceiling comes down to if his rushing ability translates to the NFL level. His ceiling is low-end QB1, and his floor is that the New York Jets' triennial search for a franchise quarterback continues. In 30 college games, Mac Jones finished with 42 rushing yards on 54 attempts, curbing his fantasy football upside. When compared to the only two first-round quarterbacks in his Best Comparable Players list, Jones isn't close to their level on the ground. His ceiling is mid-QB2 in fantasy leagues, and his floor is he's given a Chicago overcoat and sinks to the bottom of waiver wires in non-Superflex leagues.

Range Of Outcomes For 2021 Rookies: Top 3 Rookie RBs

by Aaron Stewart

An early lesson learned back in my minion days as a lurker on the PlayerProfiler website was not to overvalue a player's Best Comparable Players. One look at Travis Etienne's comps, however, shows why he is the No. 1 running back in the 2021 rookie class. All five of his Best Comparable Players have had at least one season with 200 carries. Taking carries from James Robinson is the hurdle for Etienne to secure a mid-RB2 floor with top five upside. Measuring at 6-1 and 232-pounds, Najee Harris has the adequate size to be a bell-cow running back in the NFL. On the other hand, his glaring lack of Pro Day workout metrics was concerning for dynasty managers in rookie drafts. If Joe Mixon and Leonard Fournette's backend-RB1 seasons are Harris' ceiling, then James Conner's backend RB2 seasons in 2019 and 2020 represent his floor.

Meet The Metric - Total QBR

by Aaron Stewart

Total QBR is not a relevant stat in predicting a quarterback's fantasy football success. For example, in 2020, Drew Brees' 74.5 Total QBR ranked No. 6 among qualified quarterbacks, but he finished the season averaging 18.0 (No. 15) Fantasy Points Per Game. This metric is more relevant in dynasty football leagues. Quarterbacks with low ratings in their Total QBR metric are likely replaced sooner rather than later. Carson Wentz had a 33:7 touchdown-interception ratio back in 2017 and was an MVP candidate before tearing his ACL. With Frank Reich as his offensive coordinator, Wentz had a 75.8 (No. 3) Total QBR in 2017. Reich would leave for the Colts’ head coaching job and Wentz would struggle in his absence. If there's one quarterback in the group who can turn around his Total QBR like Aaron Rodgers did last season, it's Wentz.

Meet The Metric - True Catch Rate

by Aaron Stewart

In 2020, Emmanuel Sanders led the NFL with a 110.9-percent True Catch Rate, and that's not a typo. What does this tell the RotoUnderworld audience? Despite a 67.1-percent (No. 97 among qualified wide receivers) Catchable Target Rate and 6.04 (No. 108) Target Accuracy, Sanders was able to utilize his 10.29 (92nd-percentile) Catch Radius to haul in a majority of his targets, even those deemed uncatchable. He caught 61 passes even though only 55 targets were deemed catchable. Last season, Denzel Mims finished the season with a 51.1-percent (No. 103) Catch Rate. Box score hunters see this stat and assume "This guy can't play and is a bust." Mims' 88.5-percent (No. 29) True Catch Rate and 14.1 (No. 12) Average Target Distance add context to his situation. A quarterback upgrade in 2021 would lead to an increase in Mims' 57.8-percent (No. 107) Catchable Target Rate in 2020, and thus increase his Catch Rate that box score hunters overvalue.

Transaction Implication: Julio Jones and Post June 1st Transactions

by Aaron Stewart

New Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot and the new front office have left the possibility of a Julio Jones departure by not restructuring his contract and converting unguaranteed money (base salary) into guaranteed money (prorated signing bonus). More guaranteed money means more dead cap on a player's contract, making it harder to financially move on from them. The Falcons did not make that commitment to Jones. Teams are allowed to designate up to two players as a post-June 1st cut, and the Eagles have already designated Alshon Jeffery and Malik Jackson. They're projected to have $4.9 mil in cap space locked up on their top-51 players, eighth-lowest in the NFL. With a lack of cap space and a purge of aging, declining veterans already starting, the team will proceed with cutting Zach Ertz and saving almost $5 million in cap space.

Transaction Implication: Dynasty Impact of Allen Robinson's and Chris Godwin's Franchise Tags

by Aaron Stewart

It’s lazy analysis to say that a quarterback upgrade will improve Allen Robinson’s fantasy performance. Only DeAndre Hopkins (310) has more targets over the past two seasons than Robinson’s 304 looks. Numerous opportunity and productivity metrics of Robinson’s are top-10 at his position. Volume is key in fantasy football, and his situation is not as bad as people make it seem. But what if he leaves Chicago next offseason? Chris Godwin's calculated market value for 2022 has him signing a contract with an average annual salary of $17.1 million. Mike Evans already took one pay cut to help the Buccaneers keep the team together. Would he be open to taking another pay cut for the team? Or will 2022 be the year where the Buccaneers have to decide who to keep between him and Godwin?

Transaction Implication: Seattle Seahawks Extend Tyler Lockett

by Aaron Stewart

Tyler Lockett's cap hit will be higher than any receiver that has signed a contract in the past twelve months. Among all NFL players, he will count more on the 2024 salary cap than Aaron Donald, the DPOY in three of the last four seasons, will for the division-rival Los Angeles Rams. Expect the Seahawks to move on from him after 2023 before he enters his age-32 season. Can Lockett maintain his efficiency with another high-volume passing game role in 2021? His 75.8-percent (No. 9 among qualified wide receivers) Catch Rate, 93.5-percent (No. 9) True Catch Rate and low 3.8-percent (No. 60) Drop Rate didn't leave fantasy points on the field. Capitalize on his 2020 season that saw high usage, WR1 productivity, and efficiency unusual for players that see the volume that he received.

Transaction Implication: Sam Darnold Traded To The Panthers

by Aaron Stewart

Despite picking up Sam Darnold's fifth-year option, Carolina's commitment to him as the starter may be brusque. It's no secret that Panthers owner David Tepper covets acquiring a franchise quarterback. If Darnold and his league-worst among qualified quarterbacks -67.40 EPA does not improve in his new destination, expect the Panthers to follow Miami's lead regarding how they dealt with Josh Rosen, and move on as soon as possible. With Curtis Samuel vacating 97 (No. 37) Targets and taking into account D.J. Moore's 757 (No. 8) Unrealized Air Yards, there are opportunities in the Panthers 2021 offense for more production for Moore. His 2.27 (No. 12) Yards Per Route Run, +68.7 (No. 11) EPA, and 28.1-percent (No. 13) Dominator Rating displayed elite efficiency that can translate to a fantasy football bounceback in 2021.

Transaction Implication: Corey Davis Signs With Jets

by Aaron Stewart

Despite a career-best 13.7 (No. 32 among qualified wide receivers) Fantasy Points per Game average and top-notch efficiency, Davis has failed to break out in his career according to the Breakout Finder. He missed the 200-point PPR mark by less than nine points, and fell short of the 1,000 yard receiving mark by 16 yards. Truly heartbreaking. Will he pull a Devante Parker-like fifth-year breakout? Or will "Corpse" Davis return to the catacombs? Despite an expected increase in his 92 (No. 42) Targets from 2020, Davis' efficiency will be tough to replicate without Ryan Tannehill's 121.1 (No. 2) True Passer Rating. A Breakout Rating below 20.0 shows that banking on him to finally break out in Year 5 is irrational. He's a JAG receiver and isn't helping people win games. He's a perfect throw-in in trades to acquire your target.

Transaction Implication: Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry Sign With Patriots

by Aaron Stewart

In redraft, it's best to avoid both Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. However, if managers are playing best ball fantasy football in 2021, then stacking Henry and Smith will be advantageous. The Patriots invested heavily in the tight end duo while opting against signing a Kenny Golladay, Will Fuller, or other top-tier wide receiver option. Expectations are that the passing offense will go through Henry and Smith, with weekly roles determined by the defenses they face. A mistake that people make in trading for players is that they acquire players on past performances instead of future projections. As a passer, Cam Newton was putrid last season. Thank goodness his Supporting Cast Efficiency will be better in 2021 than the -3.97 (No. 22) mark it received in 2020. He is the perfect quarterback for championship contenders to target in a trade if they have uncertainty at the position.

Transaction Implication: Aaron Jones Resigns With Packers

by Aaron Stewart

Aaron Jones has had back-to-back seasons finishing in the top-10 among qualified running backs in Weighted Opportunities, allowing him to finish as RB4 and RB3 in Fantasy Points per Game in 2020 and 2019, respectively. A.J. Dillon and his 5.9-percent (33rd-percentile) College Target Share is incapable of replacing Jamaal Williams' role in the passing game. Jones' 242 (No. 17) Routes Run are destined to increase and will offset any carries lost to Dillon in 2021. The sell-high window on Dillon did close when Jones resigned, but now the buy-low window on Dillon has opened. Jones, 27 years old in December, is unlikely to play out his contract which goes into his age-30 season, and would see his 2023 cap hit balloon up to $19.25 million. Find the panicked owners in leagues that are impatient and acquire Dillon at a bargain price.

Transaction Implication: Dak Prescott Signs Extension With The Cowboys

by Aaron Stewart

Last season, the Dallas Cowboys placed the franchise tag ($31.41 million) on Dak Prescott for him to prove himself as a franchise quarterback. A horrific broken ankle shortened his season. So why did the team take a perceived risk on a player coming off a catastrophic injury? Despite my slight mathematical error, the Cowboys could not afford the cap hit of a franchise tag on Prescott in 2021. Want to see the fantasy football impact of a franchise quarterback? Look no further than the team's top two pass-catchers last season, Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb. In Prescott's five starts, Cooper finished with four top-24 wide receiver performances, and Lamb finished with three top-24 wide receiver performances. Both played in all 16 games; in 11 games without Prescott, Cooper had four top-24 wide receiver performances and Lamb only had one top-24 wide receiver performance.

Transaction Implication: Carson Wentz Traded To The Colts

by Aaron Stewart

Carson Wentz is a value in dynasty leagues because the perception of him is that he’s damaged goods. Those who have him in dynasty should hold. His value is the lowest it’s been in his career. He has one year in a better situation to turn his NFL career around. If struggles in 2021, it doesn't change the value that cratered in 2020. But if he puts up a solid campaign in his age-29 season, then he regains significant trade value. Don’t worry about a drop-off in Miles Sanders’ receiving volume; his 4.33 targets per game were identical in games that Carson Wentz and Jalen Hurts started. After a disappointing 2020 season, he's set to be a high-volume running back with better rushing opportunities provided by his run-threat quarterback, while still being involved in the passing game.

Jalen Hurts: The Next Great Konami Code QB

by Aaron Stewart

On August 20, 2019, Warren Sharp dropped an article telling the world they were wrong about Lamar Jackson, who proceeded to score 415.7 fantasy points, the second-most ever scored by a quarterback. Not bad for an undersized running back with accuracy issues. Sharp warned everyone in 2019. I’m here to warn everyone in 2021. Don’t make the same mistake with Jalen Hurts that people did with Jackson in 2019! With a full offseason of first-team reps, passing accuracy that can only go up, and a receiving core that will be better by default, Hurts' floor is a top-12 QB in 2021 like we saw last year, but the sky is the ceiling. I called Dak Prescott leading quarterbacks in fantasy points per game in 2020. I’m here to say that in 2021, it will be Hurts as THE QB1 in fantasy football in 2021.

2021 Salary Cap Beneficiaries: Wide Receiver Edition - Part 2

by Aaron Stewart

The looming departures of Sammy Watkins and Demarcus Robinson make Mecole Hardman a salary cap beneficiary in a pivotal make-or-break third season. Yes, he had an 8.1-percent (No. 9 among qualified wide receivers) Drop Rate. Does it matter? No. Watkins and Robinson dropped a lower percentage of their targets and Patrick Mahomes continued to go back to Hardman, who drew a 13.4-percent (No. 54) Hog Rate while Watkins (10.8-percent) and Robinson (8.8-percent) finished outside the top-80. With the Eagles $51 million over the cap, it’s time for them to move on from the veteran receiver duo of DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery. Jalen Reagor's 13.4 (No. 20) Average Target Distance mark and 15 (No. 40) Deep Targets revealed that he will be utilized in high-efficiency fantasy point scoring areas. Improved quarterback play would go a long way towards helping him achieve a breakout season.

Super Bowl LV Preview: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

by Aaron Stewart

The story to watch for Patrick Mahomes entering the Super Bowl is his offensive line protection. He ended the 2020 season with an 83.9-percent (No. 21 among qualified quarterbacks) Protection Rate, the second straight time he’s finished outside the top-20. His 43.1-percent (No. 11) Pressured Completion Percentage is a slight dip from his 44.5-percent (No. 5) mark in 2019, but without Eric Fisher, the Chiefs will struggle to limit pressure to Mahomes. Leonard Fournette, aka “Playoff Lenny,” is a prime example of why Matt Kelley doesn’t take L’s in fantasy football. During the season, Fournette’s 66.5 (No. 54) Run Blocking Efficiency rating contributed to his porous 3.5 (No. 65) True YPC average. With improved production on the ground this postseason, will he continue to see a 43.3-percent (No. 18) Base Front Carry Rate?

2021 Salary Cap Beneficiaries: Tight End Edition

by Aaron Stewart

While Irv Smith will not see that many targets in a slow offense that averaged 34.8 (No. 25) Team Pass Plays per Game, his 25.0-percent (No. 6 among qualified tight ends) Red Zone Target Share was higher than all but four of last year's top 12 tight ends. Kyle Rudolph will vacate 37 (No. 39) targets when he is released. With 70 targets a reasonable expectation in 2021, and provided he continues to stay involved in the red zone, Smith will become the latest late-round, league-winning tight end. PlayerProfiler followers know that Matt Kelley and the RotoUnderworld team LOVE Adam Trautman. His rookie season did not see him dominate in the box score, but the analytics and advanced stats were promising. He did not record enough stats to qualify for ranking in many of our metrics, but his +6.1-percent Target Premium and +24.6 Production Premium reveal a more efficient option in the passing game for the Saints than the departing Jared Cook.

2021 Salary Cap Beneficiaries: Wide Receiver Edition

by Aaron Stewart

Chris Godwin and/or Antonio Brown leaving the Buccaneers is a guarantee, and it opens a starting spot for a team that averaged 40.5 (No. 10) Team Pass Plays per Game. The next man up would be Scott Miller, who had the year's quietest 500-yard receiving campaign. Finishing 2020 with averages of 1.90 (No. 34 among qualified wide receivers) Yards Per Route Run and 1.93 (No. 37) Fantasy Points per Target, he's a great stash candidate entering the 2021 season. Not only does Buffalo cutting John Brown make sense financially, it also opens up more opportunity for a younger, better player in Gabriel Davis to contribute more in an offense that averaged 38.9 (No. 13) Team Pass Plays per Game. Chase Claypool is the only rookie wide receiver to score more touchdowns than Gabriel Davis' seven (No. 19) this season. Not bad for a player overlooked in dynasty rookie drafts because 14 wide receivers were picked before him in the NFL Draft.

Wide Receiver-Cornerback Matchups to Target: Fantasy Football Week 14

by Aaron Stewart

When going against top cornerbacks in the PlayerProfiler cornerback rankings, Mike Williams cannot be started. On the other side, when he goes against cornerbacks towards the bottom of the rankings, he has excellent games. A look at A.J. Terrell’s profile page shows that he has been a bad cornerback this season. It’s a guarantee that Williams and Justin Herbert connect on multiple 20-plus yard passes in this game. Antonio Brown’s 18.6-percent (No. 4 among qualified wide receivers) Hog Rate on a team that averages 40.9 (No. 8) Team Pass Plays Per Game is a combination for fantasy points waiting for the right opposing defense to exploit. Kris Boyd's 13.1 Yards Per Reception Allowed, when paired with his Catch Rate Allowed, is exactly what Brown needs to achieve his first breakout performance of the 2020 season.

Wide Receiver-Cornerback Matchups to Avoid: Fantasy Football Week 14

by Aaron Stewart

Ronald Darby’s combination of 13 (No. 2 among qualified cornerbacks) Pass Break-Ups, one (No. 3) TDs Allowed, and 55.6-percent (No. 11) Catch Rate Allowed has contributed to his +43.4 (No. 7) Coverage Rating this season. His 1.50 (No. 12) Fantasy Points Allowed Per Target spells trouble for Deebo Samuel this week, with Darby’s 87.3 (No. 24) Passer Rating Allowed paired up with Samuel’s 90.2 (No. 69) QB Rating When Targeted. On top of predicted game flow not being in his favor, Amari Cooper’s 25.6-percent (No. 48) Air Yards Share is less than ideal for a player on a team expected to control the game on the ground. Cincinnati's William Jackson is a tough matchup for the opposing team’s No. 1 options. His 54.3-percent (No. 8) Catch Rate Allowed is elite and it, along with his 7 (No. 21) Pass Break-Ups, has contributed to his +36.9 (No. 10) Coverage Rating.

Wide Receiver-Cornerback Matchups to Target: Fantasy Football Week 13

by Aaron Stewart

Coming off his best game of the season, T.Y. Hilton matches up with Phillip Gaines, the third-worst ranked cornerback on PlayerProfiler’s cornerback rankings. Hilton has back-to-back games with 70-plus Air Yards after totaling 73 from Weeks 6-10. It’s easier to convert Air Yards into receiving yards when Hilton is covered by a backup thrust into the starting lineup than it is against his Week 11 primary coverage, Jaire Alexander. With 19 (No. 7 among qualified wide receivers) Deep Targets and a +10.2 (No. 23) Production Premium, fantasy football managers can be assured that the targets Tim Patrick receives produce quality fantasy football points. Charvarius Ward, his projected primary coverage for Week 13, struggles at preventing big plays. His 14.6 Yards Per Reception Allowed, 9.0 Yards Per Target Allowed, and 112.2 Passer Rating Allowed are outside the top-55 qualified cornerbacks.

Wide Receiver-Cornerback Matchups to Target: Fantasy Football Week 11

by Aaron Stewart

At 6-4, 223-pounds, Michael Pittman has the prototypical size that the Indianapolis Colts lack in their receiver core. Combined with his 111.2 (93rd-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Speed Score and 10.24 (89th-percentile) Catch Radius, he is a red zone threat for Philip Rivers to target. Kevin King is Pittman's primary coverage this week and he plays his first game since Week 4 due to a quad injury. King struggled before his injury, hence his low spot on the cornerback rankings. The Patriots-Texans game has an O/U set at 49 points, and only three games on the slate have a higher projected total. On top of that, the Texans are a Vegas underdog playing at home in a dome. While Brandin Cooks has out-targeted Will Fuller in each of the last three games, it doesn’t matter. Expected to play from behind in a dome against weaker primary coverage means that Fuller is a wide receiver to start in a high-scoring game.

Wide Receiver-Cornerback Matchups to Target: Fantasy Football Week 9

by Aaron Stewart

Remaining injury-free to this point of the season has allowed Will Fuller to reach his fantasy football potential. His dominance is represented in his +26.7 (No. 6 among qualified wide receivers) Production Premium and 28.4-percent (No. 18) Dominator Rating. Sidney Jones’ sample size is too small for his stats to qualify among cornerbacks, but his 14.5 Yards Per Reception Allowed is a problematic stat when matching up with a deep threat such as Fuller. A touchdown in Week 2 prevented Marvin Jones from scoring under 10.0 fantasy points in each of the first five games despite Kenny Golladay missing the first two. Since then, he has scored 13.0 or more fantasy points in both of his games and had his two best showings as it relates to Air Yards. Fortunately for Jones, Minnesota's primary coverage for him this week is Kris Boyd, who draws the start with the Vikings missing most of their cornerbacks due to injuries.

Wide Receiver-Cornerback Matchups to Avoid: Fantasy Football Week 8

by Aaron Stewart

Since Dak Prescott's devastating injury, Amari Cooper has not topped 62 Air Yards in a game, and now third-string rookie Ben DiNucci is the starting quarterback. With DiNucci under center, the Cowboys have the second-fewest Implied Vegas Points (18.00) this week. Darius Slay ranks in the top-10 with 9.4 (No. 5 among qualified cornerbacks) Yards Per Reception Allowed and 5.8 (No. 8) Yards Per Target Allowed. Volume is key to fantasy production, but Keenan Allen’s -29.2-percent (No. 97) Target Premium, 7.27 (No. 48) Target Accuracy, and 81.6 (No. 81) QB Rating When Targeted reveal that he benefits more once he has the ball in his hands rather than catching longer passes that defenses fear. While he may see the same target volume he's become accustomed to, Bryce Callahan’s 1.20 (No. 5) Fantasy Points Allowed Per Target will make it a disappointing performance.

Wide Receiver-Cornerback Matchups to Target: Fantasy Football Week 7

by Aaron Stewart

Despite an in-season coaching change, Calvin Ridley's role in Atlanta's offense remained unchanged. He ran 38 routes last week, which was the second-most he has run in a game this season, and finished as WR10 despite teammate Julio Jones receiving more targets and finishing as WR2 on the week. Jeff Okudah is the equivalent of an open door to wide receivers he covers. On the season, he has allowed 294 receiving yards on 138 Routes Defended. Matt Rhule, the former Temple coach, has unlocked his former Temple player Robby Anderson, who has excelled in his high-volume role this season. Wide receivers have had their way against Patrick Robinson in his two games with New Orleans. Last week, he struggled to contain Jalen Guyton and his 4.44 (83rd-percentile among qualified wide receivers) 40-Yard Dash speed. Good luck stopping Anderson and his 4.41 (91st-percentile) 40-Yard Dash speed.

Wide Receiver-Cornerback Matchups to Target: Fantasy Football Week 5

by Aaron Stewart

Pierre Desir's 92.9-percent Catch Rate Allowed is the worst among cornerbacks that have been targeted more than three times. Wide receivers covered by Desir average 3.14 yards of Target Separation Allowed when the pass arrives at the wide receiver. That will prove problematic for Desir once again this week with DeAndre Hopkins averaging 2.04 (No. 23 among qualified wide receivers) yards of Target Separation. Jeff Gladney is credited with allowing the most yards per route cover (2.46) according to PFF. Tyler Lockett averages 0.54 (No. 14) Fantasy Points Per Route Run and 37 (No. 16) Routes Run per Game. There are 30 cornerbacks with a higher Slot Rate than Gladney's 25.8-percent mark. Of those cornerbacks, only four allow more than the 14.8 Yards per Reception that Gladney does. Good luck stopping Lockett in the slot.

Wide Receiver-Cornerback Matchups to Target and Avoid: Fantasy Football Week 4

by Aaron Stewart

Kenny Golladay secured a 22.6-percent (No. 20 among qualified wide receivers) Target Rate in his first game back from injury and averaged 2.53 (No. 16) Fantasy Points Per Target. Lattimore allows 18.6 (No. 69) Yards per Reception. On the other side, Golladay averaged 18.3 (No. 4) Yards per Reception last season. It feels weird to say that Lattimore is the cornerback matchup to target here, but his 2020 season has been downright horrible. This is a wheels up situation. To say that Tavierre Thomas has struggled in 2020 is an understatement. His 23.1-percent Burn Rate is fourth-highest among all cornerbacks, while his 139.1 Passer Rating Allowed is only better than 11 cornerbacks in the league. CeeDee Lamb averages 1.90 (No. 46) Fantasy Points Per Target, while Thomas allows 2.50 Fantasy Points Per Target. Amari Cooper may receive more targets than Lamb this week, but Lamb will do more with each of his targets than Cooper will against Denzel Ward.

2020 Fantasy Football Busts At Each Position

by Aaron Stewart

There is no doubt that Drew Brees was the best passing quarterback in the NFL last season. Efficiency, although impressive, does not equate to fantasy football upside. His 6.8 (No. 32) yards of Pass Attempt Distance Per Attempt attributed to his efficient play in fantasy last season. His efficiency won't matter when he loses passing volume. Because volume leads to fantasy points, Brees' decreased pass attempts will disappoint people drafting him top 7 at his position. Tyler Higbee had two events occur for him to become a fantasy football sensation. The first was he faced the easiest stretch of tight end defenses over five weeks. The second was a knee hyperextension to Gerald Everett in Week 12. Higbee's current FFPC ADP of 74.58 is an example of projecting a small sample size out to a full season. A healthy Everett will prevent Higbee from returning expected value at his ADP cost.

Fantasy Football Players Impacted By Recovery Timetables

by Aaron Stewart

Alshon Jeffrey will vacate a 22.6-percent (No. 23 among qualified wide receivers) Target Share and 15.4-percent (No. 20) Hog Rate while he recovers from his Lisfranc injury. Dallas Goedert exceeded an 80-percent Snap Share five times from Week 11 to Week 17 while Jeffrey was out last year. During that time, Goedert had four games with 30-plus routes run and finished as the fantasy TE13 or higher in all four. The Dolphins turned to two players to carry their passing game when Preston Williams was placed on IR. DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki combined for 41-percent of Miami's targets from Weeks 10-17 last season. Gesicki finished as a top-15 TE in five of the eight games that Williams missed, and Parker finished as a top-24 WR in six of those games. If Williams struggles to perform in his post-ACL season, look for Parker and Gesicki to pick up the slack in the receiving game.

Sleeper Satellite Backs To Target in Dynasty Leagues

by Aaron Stewart

At 5-11, 213-pounds, Dare Ogunbowale is a slightly bigger and more explosive version of James White. Both former Wisconsin RBs are featured in their respective passing games, finishing top-24 in Pass Snaps played last year. Ogunbowale made his limited touches count, finishing the year with 6.6 Yards per Touch, 1.32 (No. 11 among qualified running backs) Fantasy Points Per Opportunity, and a +17.2 (No. 19) Production Premium. Eno Benjamin landed in an explosive Arizona offense that helped three different running backs find weekly fantasy football success last season. The Kliff Kingsbury-coached Cardinals gave high Snap Shares to their starters, with an RB receiving 70-percent or more of the snaps in 13 out of 16 games. Benjamin, whose Best Comparable Player is Duke Johnson, becomes a priority target if the Cardinals again struggle to find a workhorse.

Why you must avoid Aaron Rodgers in fantasy football

by Aaron Stewart

Despite the decrease in overall pass volume, Aaron Rodgers finished top-5 among qualified quarterbacks with 85 (No. 4) Red Zone Attempts, 94 (No. 2) Deep Ball Attempts, and 34 (No. 1) Money Throws. It’s alarming that the high volume in high-leverage fantasy points-scoring situations did not get him into the top-10 at his position in Fantasy Points per Game. These volume stats were also higher in 2019 than they were in 2018. It is illogical to expect an increase in these stats in 2020. At 37 years old, Rodgers is in decline. His arm is no longer elite and his rushing production has diminished to average in the NFL among quarterbacks, ranking No. 16 last year with 183 rushing yards. These two traits are what made him an elite fantasy quarterback option in fantasy football. Without these traits Rodgers is, at best, a streaming option. Don't draft him as a QB1. Let the competition pick him up believing in the façade of him being a “safe” QB1 option.

Five Running Backs Due for Regression in 2020

by Aaron Stewart

Last season, Derrick Henry scored 18 touchdowns for the Titans while leading all qualified running backs with 303 carries and 1,539 rushing yards. PlayerProfiler’s Data Analysis Tool calculates Expected Touchdowns for running backs and Henry had a 7.60 touchdown difference (10.4 expected). A non-factor in the passing game with 25 (No. 49) targets, Henry’s touchdown regression will make it difficult to return value on his first-round ADP. Leonard Fournette’s 0.90-percent Touchdown Rate is unbelievable for a running back that had 265 (No. 7) carries and 316 (No. 2) Weighted Opportunities. While Derrick Henry lead running backs with 7.60 touchdowns over expectation, Fournette’s 9.40 touchdowns below expected was dead last for running backs. Sure, he won’t see 100 targets in the 2020 season, but the positive regression in the touchdown category will more than make up for the decrease in the receiving game.

Levante Bellamy: Deep Rookie Running Back Dynasty Stash

by Aaron Stewart

Levante Bellamy did not come to Western Michigan as a running back. According to 247Sports, he was the No. 13 wide receiver and No. 499 overall prospect in the 2015 class. Western Michigan listed him at wide receiver on their roster in 2015. With elite burst displayed at the NFL Scouting Combine and a football background as a receiver, he profiles as an under the radar running back set to succeed at the professional level. Looking ahead at future opportunities, Bellamy has the skillset to allow the Broncos to move on from Phillip Lindsay instead of committing a multi-year, expensive contract to a backup running back whose 11.6-percent Drop Rate on 95 career targets will limit his role to early down work when Melvin Gordon needs a breather. Bellamy is the better back to partner with Gordon going forward in fantasy football.

Jonnu Smith looks like this year's George Kittle

by Aaron Stewart

Jonnu Smith’s dynasty owners have watched his role with the Titans grow from his rookie season to this past season. His improvement from 2018 to 2019 was both from a statistical and efficiency standpoint. He's an amazing football talent, and the Titans realized this halfway through the season. Fantasy football production is all about opportunity, and Corey Davis won't prevent Smith from ascending in this offense and become the No. 2 passing option in a NFL offense in 2020. Smith’s breakout season will not be a surprise, it should be expected. The analytics and trends throughout the 2019 season are foreshadowing his fantasy football ascent. Enjoy getting him at his ADP outside of the top 100 this season, because it won't be this low again until he exits his prime. Securing a full-time role in the Titans offense with a quarterback upgrade in Ryan Tannehill, Smith is set to build on his TE1 numbers from Weeks 14-16.