It’s time Derek Carr gets his flowers. Behind the disaster that is the Raiders, he is averaging 19.27 (No. 11) fantasy points per game and has thrown at least two touchdown passes in every game since week 9. What he lacks in efficiency, he makes up for with his aggression. He’s airing it out with 9.1 (No. 5) Air Yards per Attempt. With 30 (No. 3) Money Throws, we’re even seeing a clutch gene from Carr. He’s been automatic since week 9 and is a top-12 option against a Rams defense that has given up nearly 20 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks over the last four weeks.
Chris Olave is the clear alpha wideout for the Saints. The rookie has stepped up big for the team, leading them in both Targets (50) and Receiving Yards (433). I like Olave’s ceiling on any given week as he’s cleared the 100-yard receiving mark three times already this season.
Godwin is the preferred option in this week’s matchup after shredding the Browns for 12/110/1. Godwin has been reliable, having seen double-digit Targets in five of his last six contests.
Justin Fields practiced in full on Thursday and is averaging 6.84 yards per carry this season. He has at least 47 rushing yards in every game since Week 3, at least 60 yards in every game since Week 6, and at least one rushing touchdown in every game since Week 7. David Montgomery ran for 122 yards at an 8.13 yards per carry clip against Green Bay in Week 2. Fields and Montgomery, heck even Darrynton Evans if he gets 10 touches again like he did last week, is set to smash against this Packers’ defense.
Josh Allen managers can rest easy knowing his UCL injury isn’t the detriment to his fantasy production that many feared it would be. Producing 21.2 fantasy points per game with two games of 40+ pass attempts since the scare, he’s confidently the rest-of-season QB1. He’s still not afraid to run. He carried the rock 10 times for 78 yards and a score in Week 12. Against a Patriots defense that has allowed solid fantasy performances to talented quarterbacks, Allen is a top-10 option.
Rachaad White’s 3.6 true yards per carry is nothing to write home about, and that number is so low in part to how beat up the Bucs’ offensive line has been. But luckily, they get the Browns and the league’s worst run defense according to Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA metric. White looks like an RB1 option this week if Fournette can’t go. Both would be RB2s in the event Fournette can go.
The Week 12 TNF Showdown features three matchups: Giants at Cowboys, Bills at Lions, and Patriots at Vikings. This year’s fantasy slate is chalk-full of talent. The Buffalo Bills high powered offense travels to Detroit to face a Lions defense giving up big plays at a high rate. The Dallas Cowboys face off against the New York Giants in a divisional matchup as Dak Prescott looks to continue his streak of top-10 performances. Finally, the night will be wrapped up with a sneaky shootout, where the New England Patriots and Minnesota Vikings both look to spark their offenses. This week I’ll be short and to-the-point, giving you the starts, sits, and picks for each of these matchups.
Remember when I was bummed that Parris Campbell’s breakout was going to get halted because the Colts switched to Sam Ehlinger at quarterback? Well, now I feel worse because I don’t have him anywhere, and Matt Ryan is back. Campbell is finally happening! Here are his numbers in the last three games Matt Ryan has been under center for the Colts: 32 targets, 24 receptions, 203 yards, and three touchdowns. Campbell now leads wide receivers in slot snaps with 385 and is No. 4 in routes run with 347.
The Titans coaching staff are experts in ruining a party. They killed Tennessee’s Tanne-thrill ride when they thought A.J. Brown could be replaced by Treylon Burks. Tannehill’s 13 (No. 25) fantasy points per game are the lowest mark he’s seen since his 2012 rookie season. The arm talent is still there. He’s delivering a 7.8 (No. 13) Accuracy Rating and a 79.7-percent (No. 11) Catchable Pass Rate. Running under 24 pass plays per game, the veteran has only eclipsed 200 yards in three of his seven games this season. In those each of those games, he’s produced at least 19 fantasy points. Green Bay has kept anemic passing offenses at bay and can’t stop the run. This is the perfect formula for a disappointing low-end QB2 performance from Tannehill. Tannehill has big game upside, and he’s a boom-or-bust start in deeper 2QB/Superflex leagues.
Jalen Hurts has been fire, having posted QB4 or better numbers in five of eight games. Hurts has tossed the No. 5 most Passing Touchdowns and attempted the No. 2 most Rushes (amongst qualified quarterbacks).
Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel have benefited from the change under center. With Heinicke at the helm, McLaurin and Samuel have led the team in Targets (8.3 and 5.3 respective averages) and Target Share (28.8-percent and 17.9-percent respectively).
This is Betting the Spread: Week 10 in the NFL. Just because we were approaching .500 didn’t mean we wanted to go .500. After a scorching 10-4 week in Week 8, Week 9 didn’t treat us as well. A 5-5-2 mark puts us at 59-64-4 on the season. We still have plenty of time to get back to .500, but we’re also past the mid-point of the NFL season. Hopefully, we get there this week. Let’s get Week 10 rolling!