Studs and Duds 2022 – Volume 1 – Mark Andrews and Rondale Moore

by Jackson Sparks, May 23, 2022

I saw Mark Andrews as an efficient target hog who operates down the field with a top-five fantasy finish already on his resume. Looking back, I regret not pounding the table for him more. However, we can’t simply ignore the effects of preseason injuries to J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards that certainly influenced Baltimore to air out the football more often.

Rondale Moore was barely old enough to vote and produced 1,471 yards of offense. I’m far from a film grinder, but his freshman tape is beyond impressive. I learned not to buy into purely the landing spot and especially not to obsess over coach-centric analysis. I already knew better than that, but I fell into the trap anyway. No matter what I believed about Moore, his 9.4 (1st-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Yards Per Reception should’ve been a red flag.

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The Newcastle United Situation

by Suraj Shivshankar, May 22, 2022

After a tumultuous era, Newcastle United finally announced the departure of Mike Ashley with a Saudi-led consortium taking over. A new owner rarely comes with the intention of riding out their time with the club. And if we know anything about a middle-east led ownership, it’s that they come to win. Manchester City is a good example of this. They have completely turned the side around, not just by spending money on the team but on the all-around development of the club. They have improved the state of facilities at the club and the improved the youth academy as well.

They are not linked to Eintracht Frankfurt’s Evan Ndicka yet, but the recent Europa League winner is out of contract in 2023. If he is looking for a move, Newcastle could build their defence around him. At 6 foot 4 inches tall, N’Dicka is an excellent tackler and could help clean up the Newcastle defence. He is also in the top 99 percentile of passes blocked and top 95 percentile of shots blocked in the top 5 leagues of Europe.

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Ambiguous WR Situations: A Fantasy Football Skeleton Key

by Joel Ybarra, May 22, 2022

No less than three league-winning wide receivers emerged from ambiguous situations in 2021. You won’t have trouble naming them. Cooper Kupp, Ja’Marr Chase and Deebo Samuel all recorded top-5 fantasy seasons in 2021 and ascended to wide receiver royalty. They all came from truly ambiguous WR situations: 2021 was just one season. But over the last six, trends have developed which have implications for fantasy WRs in the future. More top-scoring players will emerge from ambiguous WR situations in 2022 and beyond.

The rookie hype is real in fantasy, but the hype is well-founded. The NFL is enamored with rookie wide receivers, too. There were 17 wide receivers taken in the first three rounds of the 2022 NFL draft, tied with 1994 and 2007 for most rookie WRs drafted in the first three rounds ever. Fantasy drafting is all about finding edges. Many fantasy managers move away from ambiguity because they equate it with uncertainty. Actually drafting wide receivers from ambiguous situations is a surer thing than seemingly more certain situations.  Move toward ambiguity when drafting receivers!

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2022 Colts Backfield Breakdown: Lonely at the Top

by Noah Hills, May 21, 2022

The Indianapolis Colts were on the run-heaviest teams in the NFL last season. Their 499 carries were good for No. 5 in the league and 47 more than league average. A presumed quarterback upgrade from the departed Carson Wentz to the newly acquired Matt Ryan could mean more passing volume in the year ahead, but the strength of this Colts team is their dominant running game. We shouldn’t expect that to go away in 2022.

Continue drafting Jonathan Taylor as an elite RB1 and don’t stress over identifying his handcuff. That role probably doesn’t exist behind him in the same way that it does behind other workhorses like Dalvin Cook and David Montgomery. There just isn’t a player in this backfield with the clear talent to step in and command a three-down role. If you simply must, there are worse at-cost investments than taking a late shot on D’Vonte Price.

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Top 5 Wide Receiver Bounceback Candidates for 2022

by Jason Allwine, May 20, 2022

The Giants have brought in former Bills Offensive Coordinator Brian Daboll to replace Joe Judge. Expectations are that the offense will improve under the new head coach, and that Daniel Jones will finally tap into his potential. If that happens, Kenny Golladay should definitely improve and at least average double-digit Fantasy Points Per Game like he has three times before in his career. This is a guy who scored 11 TDs in 2019, and it would be a surprise if he doesn’t at least get one in 2022.

Allen Robinson has had Blake Bortles, Chad Henne, Mitchell Trubisky, and Justin Fields as his quarterbacks and still, he’s had two top 10 seasons under his belt. Robinson has had four years with over 150 targets, an amount possible, but unlikely to get next year. Matthew Stafford threw the ball 601 times, and I don’t see why he’d throw the ball less next season. In fact, Stafford’s production could very well go up in Year 2 with the Rams as he is now fully adjusted to the system. Assuming he stays healthy and Beckham doesn’t return to LA, 2022 should be a great bounceback season for Robinson.

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Rookie WR1 Cases for First-Round WRs

by Aditya Fuldeore, May 19, 2022

Drake London is a large target with 95th-percentile arm length, benefitting him for contested targets. He also boasts an 18.1 (99th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Breakout Age and 34.9 (69th-percentile) College Dominator Rating, a similar mix of Breakout Age and College Dominator Rating to Donte Moncrief, Sammy Watkins, and DeAndre Hopkins. Atlanta’s QB situation will be the primary thing to hold him back.

The Titans swapped out A.J. Brown for Treylon Burks during the draft, adding the Arkansas product to a team expected to contend. The Titans are looking for a new physical WR1, and with Robert Woods getting older, Burks is next up. With Derrick Henry in the backfield, Burks may not see as much pass volume as guys like Drake London or Jameson Williams. Still, he has a physical profile and clear path to being the WR1 on his own team, giving him a strong case to be the rookie WR1.

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2022 Chargers Backfield Breakdown: Sidekick Tryouts

by Noah Hills, May 18, 2022

We only have one season’s worth of decision making from which to draw conclusions about the way that Staley and offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi want to run this team. But with Justin Herbert at quarterback, it seems reasonable that they would continue to be a pass-heavy team going forward. This is a team with both the propensity and the personnel to air it out.

Austin Ekeler has not needed an incredible share of opportunity in this backfield to be an effective fantasy contributor. We should expect him to be productive once again in 2022. Outside of Isaiah Spiller, nobody else on this team should have much fantasy value. He’s just inside my top-10 rookie running backs. Mostly on the strength of the quality offensive situation he landed in. Leddie Brown is vaguely interesting as a very deep dart throw.

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2022 NFC UDFAs

by Shervon Fakhimi, May 17, 2022

Seattle’s quarterback room consists of Drew Lock, Geno Smith, and Jacob Eason. Neither Levi Lewis nor Kaleb Eleby will emerge out of training camp as the successor to Russell Wilson, but why couldn’t they make the 53? Levi Lewis has mobility (1,088 career rushing yards and 14 career rushing touchdowns) and experience operating a run-first offense. Lewis fits how Seattle wants to run (key word: run) their offense and likely has the edge between him and Eleby of making the 53. It will be an uphill climb for either of them.

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2022 AFC UDFAs

by Shervon Fakhimi, May 16, 2022

There were 262 names called during the weekend of the 2022 NFL Draft, but those aren’t the only players who make the transition to the pros. Every year there are undrafted players who make an impact and become marquee names after the NFL overlooked them. 2022 surely won’t be an exception, so it’s worth tracking where these guys land. Every AFC undrafted free agent among fantasy football-relevant positions is listed below.

Justyn Ross led a national-champion team that also boasted Tee Higgins, Hunter Renfrow, Amari Rodgers, and Travis Etienne in receiving yards as a true freshman with 1,000. Per Dwain McFarland of PFF, Ross’ career 2.99 yards per route run was the best in the 2022 wide receiver class. He only went undrafted because of a spinal fusion surgery before his junior season. Ross is a great wide receiver project. If he makes the team, he has the chance to work his way onto the same field with Patrick Mahomes. If that happens, he will be very fantasy relevant.

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Russell Gage: The Most Undervalued WR in Best Ball Drafts

by Jackson Sparks, May 15, 2022

Are we sure the shiny new rookies Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave will outscore Russell Gage? Sure, fans of PlayerProfiler know we love to lean into the uncertainty and chase ceiling outcomes. But there is no Ja’Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson in this 2022 receiver class. Let’s embrace certainty here and take the guy catching passes from the GOAT.

It’s prudent to dive into the numbers and key metrics to project a player’s prospects in fantasy. But if you want to keep it simple, Russell Gage is locked into no worse than the No. 3 spot in Tom Brady’s pecking order. This isn’t just “another Brady receiver” with far too much preseason hype that we’ve all been burned by. Gage is being drafted at his floor, and early on in the year, WR1 spike weeks aren’t out of reach. His ADP may correct itself down the line. For now, let your fellow drafters take Chase Claypool, Christian Watson, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Push the button and cash in on Gage.

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